Wasn't directed at me but my thoughts. Donovan should get $13-15M for his 2 remaining seasons of control and he projects for 6 WAR. @$8M per WAR that's $33-35M in surplus value. Cardinals have an 84 year old owner who cares deeply about winning another World Series. They are shedding salary, but want to win again as soon as possible. They will only be interested in players who have proven enough to graduate to AA or higher. Pitching, especially cheap controllable starting pitching is the priority. There will be lots of competition which will drive up the price. So to win, a team will likely need to include $35-40M surplus value in the deal. The headliner will need to be a $20M surplus value player. IMO: the only pre-arb impact player they have is Cam Smith. They would probably need to include him and at least 2 young starters- maybe Arrighetti and Ullola. Or they can take on salary like Sonny Gray or Nolan Arenado but that does not sound like something they want to do.
I agree I really want Donovan. I just think he will be in demand and other teams have better players to offer so that's what it would take Or Astros could take Sonny Gray who projects as a 3.5 WAR #2 starter but will make $40M in the final year of his deal. That would add $45M to the Astros payroll. The Cardinals are willing to pitch in cash, but that would defeat the purpose of using his contract to be able to get Donovan for less talent. That gets trade value down to about $23M. Melton and 2 SP prospects? Let's say Pecko and Hicks Then the Astros would need to cut about $20M in payroll to get under the CBT and be very tight $$$ to fill out the roster
if it has to be pitching that goes back to them, we can’t do it. Getting Donovan while thinning out our already inadequate SP corps is pointless.
Donovan has about $40M-$50M in surplus value. So I think it’ll take 3 significant pieces to get him. For Houston that means 3-4 players from the following group: Matthews, Melton, Dezenzo, Cole, Ullola, Pecko, Blubaugh, Arrighetti, Brito, Janek, Neyens, Alvarez. If Houston is willing to part with Cam Smith then they could probably get away with just one player from that group plus another lesser prospect like Sullivan or Tredwell. If I were the Cardinals I would accept Matthews, Pecko, and Brito and be really happy. I wouldn’t love that deal for the Astros but I would probably accept it. But you never know if another team is going to step up and way overpay.
QFTT. The Astros highest offseason priority is to add two SPs, one of which could be reasonably argued to be a #2.
why? Do you think Crane is cheap and won’t spend the max amount under the luxury tax, and will instead pocket the money saved from letting Chaz, Garcia, Dubie and Urias go?
Of course it depends on how you define “true number 2 SP”, but I don’t see why you think that. Let’s say it’s a top 50 pitcher in the league. Using FGDC projections here are SP in the top 50 that should be available: FA: Cease Framber Suarez King Kelly trade: Gray Ryan Lopez Peralta Gore Rasmussen Alcantara The Astro likely won’t be in on the top 3 FA, but signing Kelly or King shouldn’t surprise anyone. And any of those trade candidates other than Gray would fit into the financial budget if Houston can stomach the prospect cost, which they’ve shown they’ve been more than willing to do in the past.
Fangraphs estimates the payroll including arbitration estimates at 218 million. If they non-tender Sanchez and Trammell they would be around 210 million. The luxury tax threshold is 244 million. I think the Astros will get a starter. My concern is the several other holes they have. I think they need a number 2 and number 3 starter, a good bullpen arm behind Hader and Abreu, a backup catcher, and an outfielder. I don't think their farm system and available budget will allow them to fill all those holes in a meaningful way via trade and free agency. I expect the downward slide to continue next season. I hope they prove me wrong and some of the young guys really step up to fill the voids, but I have serious doubts. They need a payroll around 275 million to overcome the dead money and underwater contracts they have on the books without gutting an already weak farm system.
It is totally reasonable to fear the Astros are on a downward spiral. They just missed the playoffs for the first time in 9 years, have several underwater contracts, and most of their good players are over 30. But even if you don’t account for any upside in the existing roster, they should have the resources they need to fill their holes, but it’s not going to be perfect. I think at this point most everyone agrees what Houston’s needs are, in order: SP2 SP3 backup C quality lefthanded bat that can play OF 7th inning RHRP elite prospects to bolster the long term outlook They should have at least $30M and most likely $40M available. They also have a sizable group of near-ready prospects with some value that are blocked or at least not guaranteed big league roster spots in Matthews, Melton, Cole, Dezenzo, Ullola, Blubaugh, and Pecko. Between those 2 things they should be able to address everything except the need for elite prospects, which is ok because they should have a big opportunity to address that in the next draft since they’ll have 2 extra picks in the first 75 or so. SP2: this will likely have to be addressed via trade, because the FA that fit this role would eat up too much money. So Rasmussen, Alcantara, Ryan, Lopez, Gore, and Peralta would be the targets, hoping to be able to snag one using 2-4 of the prospects from the group I listed above. SP3: This can be addressed via free agency. At least one of King, Kelly, Gallen, Verlander, Littell, Bassitt, and Eflin will sign for <$15M/yr, which Houston can afford. backup C: this may be an area where Houston has to compromise/sacrifice. They might not be able to afford a premium backup like Caratini. But viable lesser backup catchers are very inexpensive. A good veteran defensive catcher who can’t hit should only cost $2M-$3M. Otherwise, trading for a good backup C who is still not making a big salary shouldn’t come with a prohibitive prospect cost. 7th inning RP: This is an area where Houston can save some money and lean on their core competency. They don’t need go into free agency and pay a RP $7M/yr. They can find a guy they know they can improve for a few million bucks (or for a relatively low prospect cost). And if this is an area they don’t address, it will most likely be fine due to their quality pitching depth in AAA and ability to mine waivers for these types. So that leaves a lefthanded bat. If Houston is going to enter the season with a glaring hole, I expect it to be that their lineup is one bat short and/or reliant on a breakout from a young unproven player like Smith, Cole, or Matthews to field an elite balanced offense. That said, Houston can hold on to Sanchez and hope he rebounds, or go get an inexpensive upside play like Yaz or Bleday. Or they could decide to further degrade their farm system and trade for someone like Donovan. The bottom line is that Houston has some resources. They don’t have the money and farm to be able to be inefficient and still field an elite roster, but if they are smart they will be able to run out a very good roster that projects to be right in the division race and favored to make the playoffs. The wild card to me is a potential Pena trade. It’s the one move that could address multiple holes without decimating other areas. But it would take another team stepping up to pay the price that makes sense for Houston (and of course Dana Brown making the right evaluation).
SP2: I am more than fine with anyone from this group. SP3: King Kelly and Gallen are significantly better than the rest. King and Gallen could put up a SP2 season. I like Littell Bassitt and Eflin much better than JV. I think they can be viewed as SP3, whereas I think JV is best considered a SP 4. I fear we won’t get the SP2 done and get stuck with only JV.
I will be extremely surprised if Verlander is the only SP they add. They might only add another underwhelming option like Jordan Montgomery or Ryan Pepiot, but I feel very confident they are going to add 2 SP before opening day. The fact that pitching is the main hole plays to Houston’s strengths, if there’s one thing they’ve been able to do, it’s find starting pitching.
backup C - César Salazar. Salazar might turn into a league average backup C, if given the chance. I can't see the Astros spending $$$ on a position where they have warm bodies on the farm. quality lefthanded bat that can play OF - Jesús Sánchez. Sánchez might have to do. The Astros do have a bunch of AAA OFs that they need to see if they have a MLB future. And the Astros can address the LF OF sitch t the trade deadline, if needed. 7th inning RHRP - The Astros have had a lot of luck with AAAA pitchers on minimum salaries in recent years. The Astros also have near-MLB-ready arms in AAA that they give a try. Miguel Ullola might be a good candidate for the 2026 bullpen, to get his feet wet. That leaves the SP2 and SP4 (I have Cristian Javier a SP3). This is where they need to spend their resources, via FA or prospect trades. Verlander as SP4 should be able to be signed for $15M or less. SP2 likely needs to be a trade with a significant loss of quality prospects. An open question is whether the Astros have enough quality prospects that they are willing to give up in order to make the trade happen. Would the Astros trade Miguel Ullola or Anderson Brito or Ethan Pecko?
NRIs might be a valuable option for Houston add some insurance against failure of their young/unproven players. At C, a guy like Garrett Stubbs, in the OF maybe Alex Verdugo, for the bullpen maybe Paul Sewald or Luke Jackson.
Oh they have the money, just deciding not to spend it To be clear, Crane hasn’t been “cheap” as an owner But we are at a point now that we are gonna have to go over the cap to be a true contender, and if we refuse to do so then we may as well trade Pena and anyone else who could bring back some legit top 100 type prospects
Donovan is really good But he isn’t a superstar. There is Zero chance we would move those three for him In fact looking at the big picture, I don’t think Dana would move Cam for him 1 for 1, considering he only have two years of control and there is no chance Crane would pay to sign him long term
