It is nuts to me that we've chopped sideways for a year at 100K. That's a lot of coiled up energy. I have no idea how Q4 will end. My guess is we're going to sleepwalk into 2026, hit some turbulence in both the economy and in Bitcoin's protocol, and then take off like a scalded dog sometime in the Spring/Summer.
We should also take into consideration the seriousness of the crime. Selling weed cookies for $50 and using Bitcoin is technically a crime, but nobody really cares. There are some TOR like solutions but you can ask Ross Albright how that turned out. There are a lot of paranoid bitcoiners who claim to have non KYC bitcoin, basically meaning nobody knows they are the ones holding the address.
The stuff with Tornado Cash and Samurai Wallet was pretty eye opening. There is technology that truly does obfuscate, forever, who owns what. The US gov jumped all over that and arrested and/or booted those folks out of the country, but it does come awfully close to a free speech issue given that this is all just code.
I have zero sense for where bitcoins bottom or peak are because I have zero interest in buying or selling. Like Bitcoin $120000 or $1200 it’s the same to me.
There is no such thing as intrinsic value. There is only what someone is willing to give up for what you have at any given place and time. Bitcoin is money. Cash. Or more accurately, an asset (in digital form). "Currency" is tough to pin down, because it depends on your own personal opinion. The root of the term means "something that moves fast" (a current). How fast does Bitcoin need to move for you to consider it a currency? That may depend on the amount you're moving and where you're moving it. For example.... Five dollars for coffee at the corner store? Bitcoin, at the base layer (discounting L2 solutions), is not gonna be your best bet. Sure it's better than trying to barter Pokemon cards or shaving off flecks of gold from a bar, but waiting several minutes for the transaction to confirm on the blockchain will seem painful in comparison to using paper USD or a credit/debit card. Five hundred thousand dollars for (insert reason here) to another party halfway across the world? Bitcoin is bar-none your absolute best method of exchange. Final settlement in 10 minutes~ will feel like lightspeed compared to any other alternative and the hoops they must jump through, middle-men that must be involved, borders it must cross, etc. The question you have to ask yourself is not about "intrinsic value", but about its inherent properties as money. Durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility, uniformity, scarcity, and acceptability. Bitcoin is the best in all of these categories among monetary candidates. That is what gives it its value and why it grows in value every day as more people learn this.
hey man thanks for the reminder but i was well aware i did post it a year ago. i will post it again a year from now. hope that's okay with you? i have 5-10 years worth of following up left.
I think it's funny people are gonna post that every time bitcoin dips 20%. Even after Saylor is far and away the richest man on the planet.
Doesn't mean it can't go poof.. Maybe you are taking it as a BTC attack or something? (which it's not) ..
This is kind of tangential, but the way investment markets fetishize "investment gurus" like they are the oracle of delphi with secret knowledge from the gods has always struck me as a major coping mechanism for the compete unpredictability of the markets in the shorter term. Its like primitive hunter gatherers praying to a sky god for rain. It is ritual/superstition more than an actual effective strategy. Like a drunkards walk stumbling all over the place, sometimes will sometimes lead you closer to the truth, but that is always just by accident and not indicative of any inside knowledge.
I feel like if you like BTC and are a proponent of BTC, then buy BTC. I am not sure why I have to make Saylor richer in the process..especially now with BTC available via ETFs and such.. So yes I am critical of Saylor.
If you believe the Bitcoin mission as a magic store for value, wouldn't you want the price to go down so you can personally buy up more Bitcoin?
