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What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by jiggyfly, Mar 31, 2021.

  1. Mango

    Mango Member

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    Ford has a major relaunch - redo of its EV lineup scheduled for 2027. When in 2027 hasn't been announced.

    Since the current EV Lightning Truck and the EV Mustang are based on current (older) technology, it isn't a huge surprise that Ford will consider dropping at least one of them instead of reconfiguring them for the upcoming technology in 2027.

    GM dropped the older Chevy Bolt when it shifted to newer EV tech and is about to reintroduce it with the current EV tech that they are using. So maybe Ford will eventually reintroduce a full size truck with their upcoming new tech..

    Drawings of what is being imagined at the link.



    Ford's 'Skunkworks' Affordable Truck, Compact Crossover EVs: Everything We Know

    Ford's low-cost EVs are meant to battle efforts from China and Tesla. Here's what we think we know so far.

    Ford's EV program isn’t going as planned. Crosstown rival General Motors has raced ahead to become America's second best-selling EV brand behind Tesla. And Ford's two main consumer offerings, the F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E are strong products, but they’re not delivering profits the way Ford wants yet and they're aging.

    Worse, Ford CEO Jim Farley is sounding the alarm about China's lead in the EV race and what could happen if—or perhaps when—that country's affordable electric options come stateside.

    Now, Ford needs new EVs developed from the ground up, designed to challenge competitors—all by being more affordable. During its second quarter earnings call, Farley said that Ford will reveal more details about its future EVs on August 11. The new platform will be a "Model T moment" for the brand, Farley said, hinting at EVs hitting the reset button at the company as competition grows.

    The reveal was somewhat anticlimactic, with the automaker focusing more on its revolutionary new manufacturing processes, which allow it to built an EV from just three big parts. These gigacastings travel along separate assembly lines and are joined together right before the end of the building process.

    All of this is enabled by a new platform developed by a small "skunkworks" team, dubbed the Universal EV Platform. The first model to use this new architecture will be a mid-size pickup truck that's will offer more interior space than a Toyota RAV4, according to Ford CEO Jim Farley. That's without the truck bed and front trunk. A second model, which is believed to be a compact crossover, will follow.

    The skunkworks team was formed sometime in 2021 and includes a bevy of hired talent from EV brands like Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.

    Ford has been pretty tight-lipped about the technical specifics of its EV project, but we know it will be rear-wheel drive and "super fun to drive," per Ford's CEO. The shape of the vehicle will also have "a new silhouette," which is a little cryptic, but at the end of the day, it could just mean that it will be more like a car and less like an F-150. Size-wise, we expect the upcoming electric pickup to be similar to the Maverick.

    Separately, the company has also said that it was developing a next-generation electric truck codenamed "Project T3," but that has been delayed.

    What Do We Know About Ford's Affordable EV Program?
    Unlike Ford’s previous efforts, we do know that Ford is intentionally not going all out on big batteries for this platform. Farley thinks that Ford’s EV future is based on volume and low costs, and one way it plans to keep costs down and prices cheap is by restricting battery sizes. Bigger batteries mean higher prices because that's the most expensive part of an EV.

    EV buyers are price sensitive and the diminishing returns of range on large batteries and the elevated costs associated with them aren’t getting buyers behind the wheel like the brand thought.

    The platform that will underpin Ford’s future EVs is small, with only about 100 people, many of whom are made up of talent from various EV startups. Farley says the team is ruthlessly focused on cost and efficiency. It views Tesla and Chinese EVs as the “ultimate competition.” He also dropped a bombshell last year, revealing on the Fully Charged Show podcast that he was driving a Xiaomi SU7 sedan imported from China.

    We know that unlike the Mach-E and Lightning, which are adapted from gas car platforms, the new truck will be totally built from the ground up; it also won't be Volkswagen's MEB platform used to make the European Explorer and Capri, which is pictured above.

    What Will The Ford Affordable EV Look Like?
    That’s something we won’t know. Ford’s EV lineup could follow a Mach-E-like theme. It could also be styled to be more in line with Ford’s European EVs, like the new Capri or Explorer EV. It could take on many forms, considering it’s a new platform that will underpin Ford’s future EVs.

    During the so-called "Model T moment," we got a very brief glimpse of what we believe is the front fascia of Ford's new $30,000 mid-size truck. There is no visible grille, but that's to be expected for an EV, which doesn't need a big radiator up front to cool the engine.

    Again, we know the EV—really, an EV platform—will take several body styles, including a small crossover and a mid-size pickup truck.

    Recently, Farley explained that Ford’s low-cost EVs will focus on “work and adventure” and that the platform will be “leveraged among many top hats,” so we can expect a whole slew of products for multiple types of customers.

    There is also talk of an EV focused on rideshare customers; perhaps Ford is developing something similar to the BYD D1 or Kia Niro Plus.

    What About Performance, Charging And Range?
    Ford has said little about the range goals of its low-cost EVs. But once again, it’s adamant that none of them will have super-sized batteries. Don’t expect the 200+ kWh battery or nearly 1,000 horsepower setup we’ve seen in GM’s Ultium platform trucks like the GMC Hummer EV.

    The blue oval automaker said it’s aiming for a battery capacity that’s approximately 15% smaller than that of the Chinese-made BYD Atto electric crossover. The Atto 3 has 60.5 kWh of usable energy, so the American company’s new pickup is expected to have roughly 51 kWh of usable energy.

    InsideEVs visited the automaker's $3 billion BlueOval Battery Park Michigan, where it will start manufacturing low-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from 2026 onwards, licensing the technology from China's CATL. The plant is expected to generation 1,700 manufacturing jobs and make about 20 gigawatt-hours of LFP batteries annually, enough to power about 250,000 EVs.

    Ford’s EVs will likely have a NACS port integrated natively and be able to access Tesla Superchargers on release.

    When Will Ford's Affordable EVs Go On Sale?
    Ford hasn’t offered an exact date of sale for its new EV projects, but the automaker said it's due to launch sometime in 2027 and it will "cater to customers who want more for their money—more range, more utility, more useability."

    The Dearborn automaker confirmed that the new family of affordable EVs will be built at its Louisville Assembly Plant, which is getting a $2 billion upgrade.

    When Will Ford's Affordable EVs Go On Sale?
    Ford hasn’t offered an exact date of sale for its new EV projects, but the automaker said it's due to launch sometime in 2027 and it will "cater to customers who want more for their money—more range, more utility, more useability."




     
  2. Mango

    Mango Member

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    The Dearborn automaker confirmed that the new family of affordable EVs will be built at its Louisville Assembly Plant, which is getting a $2 billion upgrade.

    Farley said on Ford’s Q2 2024 earnings call that pricing will be under $30,000 for the cheapest products on the platform, but this isn't necessarily the price point for the mid-size EV truck. With Trump's tariffs, that price target will be hard to achieve.

    If so, the crossover should directly rival new, more affordable offerings like the 2026 Chevrolet Bolt EUV, the Jeep Renegade, the Kia EV3, and possibly Tesla's smaller and cheaper new model—and, of course, whatever comes our way out of China.

    A truly affordable electric truck doesn’t exist in the U.S. The Tesla Cybertruck, Rivian R1T, and Chevy Silverado EV all start above $60,000, while the Ford F-150 Lightning opens at $55,000. Ford may see an opening to undercut them all with a cheaper model—a move that could give it a serious edge if it manages to deliver.

    And that will end up being its real test.
     
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  3. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The "real test" is whether they repeat the past by selling these future EVs for ~half of what they cost to manufacture.

    Building them from a new, ground-up EV platform is essential. That would give Ford legitimacy in the EV market. The second part is ramping production high enough so unit costs plummet. Notice there is no mention of a production goal. LFP batteries are a no-brainer. Smaller batteries are a smart idea IMO, but needless "range-anxiety" still permeates the mind of so many clueless people.

    I really do wish Ford the best but it's hard to take them seriously on EVs.
     
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  4. Mango

    Mango Member

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    So far, tariffs have protected U.S. manufacturers from imported EVs from China. Ford Execs have been to China to scout what Chinese EV manufacturers are doing and it seems to have spurred them on to be aggressive in reinventing their EV platform. If Chinese EV manufacturers are able to get into the U.S. car market via production in Mexico or some other way, that will help them spread their R&D and similar costs over more vehicles. If Ford, GM, Tesla etc lose some U.S. market share to the Chinese, then they will have fewer vehicles to allocate their R&D and similar costs over. So I agree that getting sales volume up is very important for all concerned.


    At the moment, Ford is a generation behind when compared to GM which came out with their reimagined EV platform a few years ago. So Ford is in something of a Holding Pattern with EVs for at least another year.

    GM's Electric Vehicles Finally Earned More Than They Cost to Make (January 2025)

    General Motors announced that its EVs became "variable profit positive" last year, earning more money than the labor and material costs.

    • General Motors said it achieved positive variable profitability for its EV lineup in 2024.
    • Simply put, that means the revenue from its EV sales was higher than the fixed costs for labor and materials needed to build them.
    • The metric doesn't account for the costs of retooling factories and building new assembly lines for EVs, but it's still a significant step for GM.
    General Motors launched an EV offensive in 2024. New models, including the popular Chevy Equinox EV and Chevy Blazer EV, finally went on sale, while production ramped up for other EVs that were introduced in 2023. These successes were part of a strong year for GM, which yesterday reported that its full-year revenue improved by 9 percent. But arguably bigger news was that GM said in its letter to shareholders that its EV lineup became "variable profit positive" in the fourth quarter of last year.

    The term "variable profit positive" comes with a slight caveat. This metric, as reported by Reuters, means that revenue for GM's EVs was higher than the variable costs, which includes money spent on labor for building the vehicles and the material required to assemble them. What it doesn't account for are fixed costs such as creating new assembly lines, so GM's massive investments in its EV factories and the engineering of the new models are taken out of the equation.

    Still, it shows significant progress for GM. Once the startup costs for things such as factory retooling are taken care of, it means GM has sorted out how to make the actual process of building EVs profitable. The increase in production also allowed GM to double its market share among EVs, the automaker said.

    GM now sells eight EVs across its portfolio of brands. The Cadillac Lyriq, on sale since the 2023 model year, saw its sales more than triple in 2024 versus 2023 and was joined by the massive Escalade iQ at the end of the year. This year, Cadillac's EV lineup is set to expand with the Optiq and Vistiq as well.

    Over at Chevy, sales of the Blazer EV got underway apace but were surpassed by the Equinox EV, which joined the lineup in the spring and registered 28,874 sales. The Silverado EV also had its first full year of sales, and its corporate cousin, the GMC Sierra EV, arrived in the fall. Meanwhile, Hummer EV sales really took off, with the 13,993 units sold in 2024 representing a huge jump over the 3,244 units that found homes in 2023. GM also continues delivering its BrightDrop electric vans in small numbers, which are being incorporated under the Chevrolet umbrella for 2025.

    2025 will be a big test for GM's EV success. The Equinox EV and Blazer EV will have to maintain their sales momentum over a full year, and Cadillac will have to manage the launch of two new crossovers while ramping up Escalade iQ production. Chevy is also planning to reintroduce the Bolt nameplate on a new affordable EV, which could prove pivotal for future success, and all of these goals will have to be reached in a climate with increasing uncertainty swirling around EVs in the United States.



    Some have projected that Tesla will have difficulty being profitable in 2026 if vehicle sales are much the same as they have been in recent years. Musk appeared to be addressing those concerns in his recent statements.

    Musk Made 4 Otherworldly Promises for Tesla’s Future in Response to His $1 Trillion Pay Deal

    Here is a list of Musk’s promises since the pay deal was approved:

    • Tesla will increase production by 50 percent by the end of 2026.
    • The company will build a gigantic chip factory, which he calls a “terafab.”
    • The chip factory’s initial capacity will reach at least 100,000 wafer-starts per month.
    • Once deployed, Optimus humanoid robots will be capable of performing surgery and help establish bases on the moon and Mars.


    Since some projections have Tesla coming in to come in at around 1.6 million (or a bit higher) vehicles sold. A 50% increase suggests production of 2.4 million vehicles.* Even if 200,000 of those vehicles are Cyber Cabs, that means Tesla will still need to average over 500,000 vehicles sold per Quarter to achieve a goal of 2.4 million vehicles for 2026.

    For the Third Quarter 2025, Tesla sold not quite 500,000 (497,099) and some of those sales were considered to have robbed some from the Fourth Quarter 2025 and possibly some from the First Quarter 2026.

    Is a goal of selling 2.4 million vehicles possible?
    Maybe, but I consider that goal to be quite optimistic..

    _________________________
    *His phrasing could also just mean that production capacity will be ramped up rather than Tesla actually producing and selling 2.4 million vehicles in 2026.


     
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  5. Buck Turgidson

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    Dammit, @Mango, why do you make your fonts so damn large? ;)

    There's about 3 guys in the D&D who can't format posts for the life of them, it's gotten beyond the point of aggravation and fully into the point of bemusement. Like watching a monkey with a calculator.
     
  6. Mango

    Mango Member

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    I have the stuff that I write stay at normal size. The quotes I go bigger to differentiate from what I write.

    The next time I post something similar, I will consider stepping it down one on Font size.

    Sort of like an Optometrist giving an eye exam.

    Five or Four

    ______________

    Five

    or

    Four
     
    #3566 Mango, Nov 10, 2025
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2025
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  7. Mango

    Mango Member

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    Years ago, it was possible to do some Fancy stuff when a decent subset of HTML was allowed. Over the years, what is possible to do in Forums has been tightened up.

    If my posts are mostly acceptable beyond the Large fonts issue, then I will consider it a Victory.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    You're always good.

    The guy in D/D who uses black text is my favorite. Try to read that **** with the bbs's "dark" background theme turned on.
     
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  9. Mango

    Mango Member

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    I will use Blue to put emphasis on a certain sentence within a quote, but I try to to avoid tinkering with colors beyond that.

    In some Forums that use phpBB, sometimes it is difficult to differentiate when somebody has put some text in Bold. If read slowly, then it is usually possible to notice text in Bold, but I have always tried to read fast. I have using Italics or Blue as easier to get the reader to focus on a specific subset of text than using Bold.
     
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  10. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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  11. Buck Turgidson

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    There needs to be a new line-item on my auto insurance policy, next to "uninsured motorist", that reads "driverless auto"
     
  12. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Meanwhile, Tesla has ZERO driverless vehicles on the road, still.

    Tesla is wayyy wayyy behind Waymo
     
  13. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    CATL start production on their second generation sodium ion batteries next month. That could be the catalyst for making EVs fully mainstream. 5 minute charging and claims they can get the cells down to 90% cheaper to manufacture. ICE vehicles are overly compliicated series of computers these days. Too much for DIY. Going by the Leaf videos which trended on YT this year. The way forward for the growing right to repair movement among consumers might be battery swaps and EV conversion kits.
     
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  14. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Member

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    Waymo leading the kill count with no accountability or apology.

    If your technology doesn't know how to stop for something as common as a housecat, what do you think it will do to a child?

     
  15. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    Defender of cats and pedophiles.
     
  16. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Notice how you've stopped touting Teslas progress on robotaxi (as there is none) and have started to post random tweets about Waymo.
     
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  17. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    Good observation.
     
  18. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    What makes you conclude there is no progress on robotaxis?
     
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  19. Sajan

    Sajan Member

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    Back to EV talk.

    I turned in my Taycan last week (put about 10,000 miles on it) and started driving my ICE porsche.
    gosh I miss the Taycan.
    it was so smooth, had effortless torque and power.....and was dead quiet.

    I didn't realize how bumpy and loud my other ICE cars are.

    firstworldproblems.
     
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  20. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Four year anniversary of picking up the Ford Mustang Mach-E. Over that time, the only maintenance has been tire rotations and wiper fluid. It did need to go in for some recall work, but that's it. As far as I can tell, no degradation of battery life as I still get the same on a 100% charge (depending on outside temps).
     
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