According to the NYT, the Texans' playoff odds went from <2% to 21% with that single comeback win vs. Jacksonville. Granted, 21% is not good odds, but holy **** it feels good to know the season isn't officially over before Thanksgiving.
Felt the same way about the Vikings last year and look what happened. I see a lot of similarities in the Colts this season and the Vikings last season. Agreed in that I just can't see Daniel Jones keeping up with Josh Allen or Mahomes in a playoff game. If the Colts had the Texans' defense, I would give them a chance even with Daniel Jones at QB. Their defense just isn't good enough even with the addition of Sauce. The Bills and Chiefs will score on their defense.
And they really do control their own destiny, with Bills, Chiefs and Chargers on the schedule (+ the Colts - though I'm not terribly optimistic they can crawl back into the division race). And they own a win over the Ravens and a split with the Jags (the other big development from Sunday's win). Still a remarkably tough task: assuming they can beat Tennessee, Arizona and Las Vegas (7-5)... they essentially have to go.... 4-1 or 3-2. Really, 0-2 v Colts doesn't kill them if they go 3-0 v Buffalo, KC and LA. 10-7 with the tiebreaker over Baltimore, Buffalo, KC and LA would likely get it done.
So in true Texans fashion we will win this one and miss the playoffs by 1 game because we blew a winnable game against someone else.
Yup, they can only afford to lose 2 more games. Automatic lost to @Colts and @KC, so they need to win every other game. 6-2...is it even possible? I just really doubt it...but hope they can though.
They must finish 6-2, and they have to take care of business v Titans, Cards and Raiders. That knocks out 3 of the 6 wins. It is going to be really hard for the Colts not to get to 11 wins: even if we hang Ls on them @ KC and @ Seattle - I think they'll find 3 wins among Texans (x2), Jags (x2) & 49ers. So, with the division out of reach, I think those two Colts games - unless the Texans go nuclear and the Colts crash hard - are not going to be terribly important. There is an AFC tiebreaker component to them - but the Texans are essentially playing every team ahead of them so the H2H tiebreaker is likely going to come into play long before conference record. IOW, I think they can go 0-2 v the Colts as long as they beat Buffalo, KC & LA. So, yeah... obviously, getting to 10 wins however is the standard - but they *really* have to sweep those 3. And if you're thinking, That's impossible.... Yeah, it probably is - but then, why do we care if they make the playoffs if they can't beat playoff teams?...
We haven't lost to a Carolina, NYJ or Tennessee this year. Every team we've lost to is ranked above us as are a couple we beat. This is how we win the division. We win EVERY REMAINING DIVISION GAME. Tennessee and Indianapolis twice giving us all tiebreakers or 2 more than JAX if they go undefeated in remaining Division games). Houston gets to 7 wins (5-1 in Division), Indianapolis gets to 4 losses (between 4-2 and 2-4 in the division) Then we have to win one more remaining game than IND and JAX. Indianapolis remaining games - ATL, KC, SEA, SF (2 with HOU and 2 with JAX) Jacksonville remaining games - LAC, ARI, NYJ, DEN (2 with IND and 2 with TEN) HOUSTON remaining games - BUF, KC, ARI, LV and LAC ( 1 with TEN and 2 with IND) So we have a chance which isn't that far fetched.
It is going to take a monumental hot streak for the Texans to make the playoffs. It is very, very unlikely, but possible. I will be thrilled if they do, but I think it is unlikely that they will. They have put themselves in too big a hole.
If the Texans are actually good enough to make noise in the playoffs they will make the playoffs. I don't they they are good enough to win anything meaningful, so who really gives AF if they back in and get bounced early. Frankly I think missing altogether might be better for the franchise. God knows the McNairs love to pretend something is going well when there's clearly an issue.
They have been really unlucky to be where they are in regards to game deciding plays. The Schedule is brutal. I have a lot of faith in a team with the clear number 1 defense in the NFL. Caley has started to look like an average at worst OC and the line has improved. I have a lot of faith they can go on a run. They may have to only score 20-25 points a game to win every one.
