Reed is only 21. As with many players that age, his game will only grow if he works hard at his trade.
Reed is off to a blistering start in this young season. For young prospects I like looking at rolling 20 game averages, about a quarter season's worth of games, to see how they're progressing. For Reed his averages over the last 20 are 9.5/2/3 on 46/49/67 splits in 18mpg. So he's not off so much to a hot start as he is continuing where he left off last season. He's showing that his college shooting was not a fluke, he really can hit close to 50% of his shots from deep while flashing off the dribble capabilities.
I don't think the sky is the limit, more like "TJ Mconnell is the limit" - but that's fine, he's an elite offensive player in his 20 minutes a game. Like, TJ Mcconell last year is something like 20-11 on 55-40-80 shooting splits per 36
TJ McConnell? As his limit? What do you base this on exactly? Reed Sheppard turned 21 years old this summer - McConnell didn't even play a single game in the NBA until he was 23 years old. McConnell is not nearly as talented a long range shooter, he isn't as talented a scorer either. An argument can be made that Reed Sheppard right now is having good a year as the best season of McConnell's career.
You make some really great points here that lead to a really bad conclusion. It is extraordinarily unlikely that Reed ever becomes FVV's equal defensively. FVV has been one of the best defensive PGs in the NBA over the past 5 years- up there with Jalen Suggs, Jrue Holiday and Marcus Smart when he's been healthy. Saying Reed can become better than that group is a foolish statement. You are suggesting that Reed can become the best defensive point guard in the NBA. That's not going to happen. You're right that FVV is much stronger physically than Reed. FVV is just built differently and Reed doesn't have the same frame. Reed could work hard in the weight room and add some mass but will never as strong as FVV. I also don't think Reed can add a lot of mass without affecting other parts of his game. FVV also has better lateral agility, better defensive instincts/knowledge and is just a much tougher defensive player. The argument for Reed over FVV is based upon the offensive side of the ball. Reed's 3-point shooting has been so amazing this season that he is already outperforming FVV's overall offensive performance last season. Reed can improve his handle and his playmaking with experience. I'm seeing the potential that we thought Reed had when drafted him. Reed can become a terrific offensive player and is greatly exceeding my expectations for this season. He can improve on defense and may someday become an adequate NBA defender. He will never reach peak FVV-level on defense though. You should change your expectations on that. Like I said you have some good analysis of FVV's defense but it leads you to a false conclusion.
Ridiculous. Your “all of our young guys actually suck” schtick doesn’t make you some kind of hard-truth teller, it makes you wrong and bad at judging talent.
Dude. That's selling Reed way short. TJ McConnell may have shot efficiently from 3 last season but that was on 0.6 shots per game. TJ doesn't have anything close to Reed's range or ability to space the floor. TJ is more shifty and better at getting to the rim than Reed. He's also a lot better on defense than Reed. Reed has the potential to be much better than TJ overall though. Reed's ceiling is Payton Pritchard with better playmaking. That would make him a top-30 player in the NBA. I'd really like to have TJ McConnell on this team though. Even if Reed continues to show out, we need another PG. We can't rely on Reed and Amen to play every game this season. We need another competent guard. TJ McConnell would be a great target.
At this point, I’m convinced you’re just trolling. Because no one who isn’t could believe so many dumb things.
McConnell was a 23 year old rookie and wasn't good the first 4 or 5 years. I don't see how that's a fair comparison.
Making grand declarations about what Reed will become is something both his fanatics and haters can't stop themselves from doing, not that they want to either. They'd rather attack someone with a different view (or relentlessly blame Ime) to try and control the narrative about him instead.
Yikes, yeah I'm having a hard time conceiving of Payton Prichard and his 15-5 as just being "better playmaking" away form being a top-30 player in the NBA. FWIW McConnell was more productive per minute Pritichard last year.
OK, well the "sky is the limit" makes it seem like his ceiling is virtually unlimited up until maybe the stratosphere I personally don't see him as an all-time great, or even an all-NBA player, and in fact all-star is not likely. Do you think he's closer to a highly productive offense focused 6th man of a year caliber player (McConnell) or an all-star/all-nba player like say a Halliburton or Cade Cunningham. Everybody thinks it's an insult, it's not an insult.
The difference is efficiency and spacing. Prtichard hit over 40% on almost 8 3-pt attempts per game last season. His True shooting % was over 63 percent which was among the best in the NBA last season for non-centers. His elite shooting creates space for his teammates to drive. His advanced metrics are all terrific. He's limited defensively but not bad. Not as good as McConnell but better than Reed Sheppard right now. He's who I hope Reed can become. Yes, Pritchard with more playmaking would be a top-30 player in the NBA.
That poster acknowledges FVV is the vastly superior defender at the moment. Other than strength, which can be improved, I don't see FVV having any physical advantages over Reed. Reed has active hands and good timing on steals just like FVV so he's not deficient there. Just because FVV is a great defender doesn't mean we to need to assume Reed is incapable of reaching that level. Even if he doesn't he can still improve greatly from where he is now. If he gets anywhere close to FVV's defense he's going to be an elite player. I remember an argument on this board years ago about Sengun's defensive potential vs Al Horford's. If Horford could be an elite defender as an undersized center, why couldn't Al P? They had very similar physical traits and Sengun's bball IQ was good as well. At the time Al P was a horrible defender so many posters argued that he was physically incapable of doing what Horford does, that it was ludicrous to compare the two at all. Al P has improved a ton defensively since then and is a good defender now. Whether he reaches Horford's all-defensive heights is irrelevant, he had the physical tools to get close enough while being elite on offense.
This would be a terrible argument, Mcconnell is elite at getting to the rim and finishing - he has been one of the very best in the NBA. All the advanced stats showed this last year. He was one of the league's elite drivers. And not only could he get there, he was 76% at teh rim last year, basically as good as Amen Thompson Again, people think it's an insult, I"ll justt repeat it. TJ McConnell averaged 24-11 per 36 minutes on elite shooting. That's really good.
FVV is built more stocky like Kyle Lowry who knew how to use their lower body strength to make up for their lack of height. Reed will get stronger, but he won't be like FVV IMO. Reed does have active hands but he still needs to focus on the fundamentals because if he gambles and loses then the defense will break down.
