It would be robbing Peter to pay Paul, but it is a way they could probably get in the mix. I would not like that deal for Houston. Too big of a chance Skubal gets hurt, then you ended up giving multiple years of an above average SS for nothing.
9 Things That Have To Happen For The 2026 Astros To Be As Good As The 2019 Astros (which I consider to be the most talented team the Astros have ever had): Carlos Correa has to have a resurgence. He is only 31, so it would not be unheard of. He will be motivated and comfortable. His average exit velocity last season was the same as it was in his peak 2021 season and his plate discipline numbers still look good. HIs launch angle has dropped in 3 consecutive seasons, so if he can fix that and stay healthy, he has a lot of upside relative to his projections. Cam Smith has to break out. Smith clearly has an immense ceiling, but his 28% k rate and .122 ISO were very poor for his profile. If Houston is going to be an elite team next year, Smith has to play like a star. There has to be an unexpected breakout hitter (in addition to Smith). Whether it's a dead cat bounce of Jose Altuve having a late career MVP level year, one of the risky young hitters (Brice Matthews, Jacob Melton, Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo) hitting their ceiling, or an unexpected trade for a superstar, without Smith and another player breaking out, this lineup has almost no chance of measuring up to the stacked lineup from 2019. Yordan Alvarez has to return to form. Without him, this lineup lacks a true established superstar hitter. The other hitters have to balance out against their projections. The rest of the lineup (mainly Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena, and Isaac Paredes) just need to balance out against their projections, but a net disappointment for that group would make it even more difficult for them to measure up to the best Astros team ever. Hunter Brown has to have another CY caliber season. He is the only truly established SP the Astros have, and an injury or drop-off in performance would be devastating. Cristian Javier has to become the pitcher Dana Brown thought he was extending. The Astros are paying Javier $21M in 2026 and 2027, so they surely thought he'd be worth more than that. To do that, he'd have to revisit his 2022 season. There's nothing in his underlying numbers that say that's not possible, but coming off of 2 lost seasons, it's hard to guess how he'll look. The Astros have to find 2 good starting pitchers. Whether it's free agency, trade, or an internal breakout, the Astros currently project to have 2-3 big holes in their rotation, and those have to be filled. The 2019 season featured 2 SP who combined for 14 fwar, and Houston won't replicate that in 2025, but they can make it up in the aggregate by adding multiple quality arms. The other pitchers have to balance out against their projections. The Astros bullpen compares pretty favorably to the best bullpens they've had, but any dropoff from projections will need to be offset. The 2019 Astros featured 6 players combining for an insane 33.3 (THIRTY THREE POINT THREE) fWAR: Alex Bregman (8.3), George Springer (6.1), Jose Altuve (5.0), Gerrit Cole (7.5!), and Justin Verlander (6.4). The Astros won't replicate that, but they could get close to matching the total if their depth shines and they get some good luck. I think there's more upside than downside on the current roster, but it's currently projecting woefully short of where the teams of the golden era landed.
In those deals, the Astros gave up top prospects in those deals when the Astros had a top-rated system (and the top 2 prospects for Verlander in the second trade). The Astros don't have the same level of prospects, and again IMO the Tigers are not looking for prospects, but young controllable MLB talent.
Correa has already stated that he doesn't believe he can cover SS full-time any more --- so that may not be a good move.
I’m optimistic about #4, 5, 8, and 9. I’d set the o/u on the other 5 things at 2.5. The good news is that the 2026 Astros don’t need to be as good as the 2019 Astros to win it all. The 2019 team posted a ridiculous 67.9 fwar; if the 2026 team puts up 50, they will be plenty good enough to win a ring. A realistic 50 fwar 2026 roster might look like: Brown 4.5 TBD SP 3.5 Javier 2.5 TBD SP 2.5 Misc SP (Blubaugh, Pearson, McCullers, Blanco, Wesneski, Alexander, Pecko, Ullola, etc.) 2.8 Hader 1.7 Abreu 1.3 Misc RP (Sousa, King, Okert, etc.) 1.2 Correa 5.2 Alvarez 5.0 Pena 4.1 Paredes 3.4 Smith 3.1 Diaz 2.5 Altuve 2.2 Meyers 1.2 Misc OF (Cole, Melton, Trammell, Sanchez) 1.8 Misc C/IF (Dubon, Salazar, Urias, Whitcomb, Dezenzo) 1.5
Short term, its a good move as you would pair Skubal with Brown and have a great 1-2 punch at the top of your rotation. However, in the long-term you would need to decide who to pay between Skubal and Brown. Both are coming up on free agency, and with Crane's reluctance to sign players to large contracts for extended durations, you risk losing one of them, if not both. Making the trade for Skubal is an all-in move to try to win in 2026.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-top-50-mlb-free-agents-2026/ 16. OF Trent Grisham Potential suitors: Mets, Astros, Angels Grisham prioritized skying the ball to right field this past season, a prudent decision given where he played his home games. As a result, he established a new career high by homering 34 times. There's always the possibility that one philosophical shift will have a domino effect elsewhere, altering this here and that there. Yet Grisham avoided that fate by maintaining his nearly passive approach and, believe it or not, making contact within the zone at a higher rate. He's not the center-fied defender he used to be, back when he won two Gold Gloves, but he can provide patience and power in the right setting. 17. RHP Michael King Potential suitors: Padres, Braves, Astros The book on King hasn't changed much over the years, even if his role has shifted this way and that a few times. He has a quality arsenal built on horizontal movement, and an undeniable track record of being a plus performer. Unfortunately, he's a high injury risk who has topped 75 innings twice to date. There's no harm rolling the dice, but one should be realistic about the expected outcome. 30. CF Harrison Bader Potential suitors: Astros, Guardians, Angels Bader had his best season since 2021, seemingly after embracing a "swing harder" mindset. That, plus a pull-happy approach, allowed him to launch a career-best 17 home runs. In turn, he paid rent in the form of increases to both his in-zone whiff and overall strikeout rates. Bader remains a defensive demon, providing some floor to his game. At the same time, it's possible that teams without friendly left-field dimensions could pass on him, especially given his approaching 32nd birthday and track record as a subpar hitter.
None of those make much sense. Grisham and Bader don’t project to be meaningfully better than Meyers. King makes a little sense but their priority is quality innings so guys with injury risk would seem to have less appeal to them.
Whether the prospects panned out is irrelevant --- they were highly rated prospects in a top 10 system. The Astros' system is considered in the bottom five and doesn't have the same highly rated prospects to even make a trade. The starting point for Skubal would more than likely start with Pena and Smith -- both young controllable players that the Tigers are more than likely looking for.
Pedro Leon claimed by the Orioles. For all the talk of how terrible the Astros farm system is, their young DFA guys sure do get claimed a lot.
Leon was signed 2 years after Elias left the Astros. Leon was a big time international prospect so I’m sure Elias scouted Leon but there’s no reason to think he’s more familiar with him than any other GM.
Elias learned from Luhnow, I'm sure he uses some of the same metrics (if not the exact same metrics) and would be familiar with Leon, probably more than other GMs.
Ya’ll can dream, but a name like Skubal is going to one of the franchises w/ the deepest pockets. Think Dodgers & Yanks and that handful of other franchises w/ ownership that take full advantage of MLB’s lack of a salary cap
