Reed just turned 21 a few months ago. It’s just too soon to know what he will eventually be as a player. Saying the Rockets wasted a pick on Reed is very premature. Also, most people felt the Rockets made a good pick and were very high on Reed. Sometimes players pan out and sometimes they don’t. I’m still very hopeful he will be a good NBA player. I’m not upset with the Rockets for picking Reed. Why be upset?
For me is just frankly a poor track record of high draft picks. I think the rockets drafting prowess is way overhyped. Jalen turned out to be a disappointment with the #2 pick. Bari is coming around but hasn’t lived up to the #3 pick status. I don’t think it’s too early to say that Reed’s limitations are substantial for a #3 pick. I just haven’t been pleased with the quality of our high draft picks, save for Amen, who was really the only player to draft at #4. Reed shouldn’t be unfairly disparaged but he’s just not the caliber of player you’d expect with a high draft pick. I was excited when we drafted him but having watched him closely I see a player very far behind the standard with a lower ceiling than I hoped and a lower floor than I realized. I believe he’ll improve and if I had to get I’d still say he’ll turn out to be a good player, but I have a very hard time seeing him live up to his draft status, and combined with our other underwhelming high draft picks, that’s disappointing to me. Mainly I think Reed is terrible on defense and he’s not shooting at high enough efficiency to counter balance that. And I think he has slow feet, which makes me think improvement on that end is going to be fairly limited.
Futuristically, I see Jalen as a NBA starter and I see Reed as a 8th - 9th player off the bench. Only because of what Ive seen. If neither player was a high draft pick, I still think Jalen would garner starters minutes, because teams covet athleticism and scoring. Similar to a Zach LaVine. Whereas with Reed, because of the inconsistencies, I think Holiday or even JD would be ahead off Reed.
Reed probably could have benefited from another year in college, which means this year is what should have been his rookie season. He's only 21, so let's give the kid a chance and see how he does.
I'd say most fans expectations are way over actual production of draft picks. I think the Rockets draft picking has been good in that hitting on Sengun, Amen, Tari are more above expectations baswd on median performance. of their picks than Green, JSJ are below expectations of median picks. I do think Stone's draft pick management has been way way above normal despite numerous posters thinking he was bad at it. Considering the picks the Rockets had when Stone took over (like 3 or 4 in 7 years), Stone is either great at drafting or great at draft pick management (probably at least good at both) considering how talented Rockets are versus other teams.
But, none of those picks were a reach. All those players were pretty much slotted in those positions or close to it. Hindsight is 20/20, so it’s easy to know who to pick now. But, when all those players were drafted, most people thought they made sense at the time.
I think he definitely deserves a chance this yr. But to what degree? Based upon how he's playing, 15 mins a game is fair. If he doesnt show improvement prior to the Trade deadline, I would look to move him . However, Im curios to see what how many minutes he gets once DFS comes back, because Okogie is looking good!
Bingo. If it wasn't a crappy draft he probably would've stayed in school. But you can't miss an opportunity to be a top 5 pick.
I don't think you can use the absolute position to judge a pick. Draft position is relative to what was available at that position. Reed's class was extremely weak. That means there weren't much high talent to pick from at #3. We may debate whether the Rockets should have picked Castle or any other player available at #3. But simply saying Reed is not worthy of #3 is ignoring the context. Same about Jabari. You have to point out which players should have been drafted at #3 instead of him. I'd say only Jalen Williams is for sure a better player than Smith so far. Some may argue that Tari is better. But we didn't miss Tari even though we didn't pick him at #3. So far, among the "Core 7" I'd say only Jalen and Cam are true misses. And only Jalen was a really costly miss. We could move him for Durant, but it cost us the #10 pick this year. Time will tell how that pick could have turned out.
I think if someone followed the draft and really preferred another prospect that turns out much better than our eventual selection it is natural to be upset. For instance, many people wanted Kawhi Leonard and thought we would pick him at #14 when he was still available. When Marcus Morris was selected instead those people felt vindicated when Kawhi turned out to be a star. Same with Green vs Mobley which was a really hot debate on the board. On the other hand people that are upset because we don't nail every pick are ridiculous. If they're going to be upset they need to bring receipts. Anyone who says "OMG we should have drafted Jalen Williams over Jabari!" better have wanted JDub at the time of the draft or they can STFU. It's so easy to pick the best players with hindsight.
I disagree. Nobody on this board gets paid to evaluate talent and make picks. Front Office gets the big bucks and they need to do better. People here spend money and attention span (which nowadays is also money) on the Rockets and they are in their right to want to see a good product. It’s ridiculously high bar to have made the right call ahead of time, to be able to b**** about management
I mean, just compare Stone with Morey since Morey left. Morey has drafted one all-star in Maxey and one that looks to be a future all-star in Edgecombe. Stone drafted one all-star in Sengun and one that looks to be future all-star in Amen. Jared McCain has also shown a lot more than Reed Sheppard in their minimal time in the NBA so far, despite one being drafted at 3 and the other out of lottery. And overall the Rockets have had exponentially better picks over these years. Obviously if you ask this board most people would consider Morey a mediocre if not downright bad GM. So calling Stone a way above median drafter is clearly just homer talk.
So far everyone has really impressed me so far this season except Reed. It's really disappointing seeing him struggle this badly on defense and on offense when Castle is doing better on the Spurs (altho he has very high TOV). Not giving up on him yet though. I think if he can get his shooting % up on offense, he'll at least be valuable as a piece.
I don't consider Morey a bad GM. I love Maxey and VJ. Most purely objective analytical approaches absolutely love Amen and Sengun. EPM has them both Top 25 while still well under 26. Heck, Tari gets some crazy love by some. I prefer EPM and they are in the Tari is good....not crazy love status.I don't consider cold math to be a homer. Maybe the 76ers are better. Maybe OKC is better at drafting ( I tend to loop them with Stone as getting a ton of picks with really solid hits along with role players). There is a reason the Rockets won 52 games last year. I like FVV and Brooks, but they got the Rockets to 41 wins. Improvement of young players while FVV and Brooks provided solid framework got the Rockets the extra wins. It takes a real hater to see this Rockets team, and think Stone hasn't done a good job with the draft whether by management of picks or the picks themselves.
there are other option besides just drafting your pick. You can trade out of the draft. You can trade back in the draft. Teams do it all the time. I’m sure our guys do the best they can but they got it wrong with Jalen and all I’m saying is that I don’t see Reed as being a better prospect than several players taken after him. So I’m disappointed. I hope he surprises me, but 21 isn’t young for a prospect. If he doesn’t really blossom this year I think fans are right to be disappointed.
