Whatever benefit he might get from that would likely be overcome by losing opportunities for wins whenever the opener tanks and removes any chance JV might’ve had to get a win.
There is a comfort level for sure and there are off the field reasons it could happen. However I don’t know that they will reach a number they both are comfortable with. Injury risks are legitimate so he would have to be a secondary signing for Astros and not sure they will offer enough. I don’t doubt Verlander’s ability or desire - nor Crane’s love of Justin, but it would take Justin possibly leaving money on the table. The Giants want him back.
Sounds like the Astros plans for the rotation are something like: Brown One of Gallen, Cease, Bieber, Peralta, Alcantara, Rasmussen, Lopez Javier One of Montgomery, Verlander, Littell, Pepiot, Eflin, Woodruff, etc. Arrighetti Pearson Doesn’t sound like they are counting on France, McCullers, or Alexander to be in the rotation, and it sounds like they are aiming to keep their optionable guys (Blubaugh, Ullola, Pecko, etc.) in the minors to start the season to increase depth.
https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-offseason-faq-2025-2026 MacT openly speculates Astros heavy interest in Cease. Key offseason dates: 1 day after WS (11/2): players not under control are declared free agents; trade season begins 5 days after WS (11/7): QO offers and option decisions are due; free agency begins 11/18: deadline to accept QOs; deadline to protect players from Rule 5 draft 11/18-11/20: Owners Meetings 11/21: non-tender deadline 12/8-12/11: Winter Meetings 12/9: Rule 4 Draft Lottery 12/10: Rule 5 draft 12/15: 2025 international signing period ends 1/8: Arbitration submissions due 1/15: 2026 international signing period begins 1/?: HOF Announcements 2/?: Arbitration hearings, Spring training starts 3/26: Opening Day For the most part I like the pace of the offseason. I would like there to be an international draft that happens the 2nd week of January. I would like team caravans to be official and scheduled for early Feb. I would also like a Rule 4 draft combine (with maybe an old timers’ game mixed in with it) to happen in late January.
This - although I suspect at least one of those optionable guys are traded, with the three you listed near the top of the list.
I just don't see Cease wanting to come here and afraid we may go after a reclamation project like Alcantara for cheaper (Which I'm not utterly opposed of)
I will be very very surprised if the Astros sign Cease. But I was very very surprised when Houston signed Josh Hader so it’s certainly possible. There’s a ton of unknowns around what moves Houston will make. On the one hand it’s exciting and I think we can expect a good outcome because Houston has some flexibility to follow the market. In the other hand it’s almost impossible to predict.
I'm actually excited for this off season as missing the playoffs may push the envelope for a real signing of a SP or bat and not some aging hopeful. Either way, I think this off season will tell the direction going forward, either the Astros go for it or become content with being mediocre for a soft rebuild.
I personally don’t want Houston to sign any free agent with a QO attached. They need to rebuild their farm and this next draft is an excellent opportunity to do that.
I personally don’t have any faith that Arrighetti will be healthy next year much less be effective. But that is based on pessimism after Houston having such bad outcomes over the last 2+ years, not based off any factual knowledge. As long as they aren’t counting on him to be more than their 5th starter and they have good SP slotted into AAA I’m fine with it.
Urquidy Blanco Javier Walter Garcia Wesneski McCullers JV Does anyone on here seriously think that after watching all of these pitchers go down with TJ that Crane is going to be willing to sign a pitcher to a contract more then three years? He's already been reluctant to give anything longer then five years to any player. Throw in the CBA expiring after next season. So you can rule out Cease, Kelly, or any other SP who's going to get a contract longer then three years. In fact I don't see Crane signing any pitcher to a contract over two years.
The number is always a concern and I have no insight on SF's position. I just think there are reasons why he could come back and why we would want him back. The number one reason is Crane loves the guy I would love to have him at the right price.
I like him as well. Maybe it is that Alexander is not a playoff rotation pitcher, more of back of the rotation pitcher of which the Astros are not lacking.
