Last 3 years Meyers: .296 .286 .354(this year) Mullins: .305 .305 .299(this year) One is trending down, the other has improved. Mullins is the exact opposite of a player that this team needs.
Of course if you think Meyers actually broke out this season and if you think Mullins is in age related decline, then yes, it would be a bad move. But looking at the underlying numbers I think Meyers is due some regression and Mullins has potential for a bounceback. And all that ignores the lineup balance that Mullins would provide. Either way it’s not like Meyers is expected to be an on base machine.
Another age 30+ declining player...come on down to the Astros. We have our arms wide open. Do you want a 3 year deal? Hell, if you're under 33...we'll give you a 4 year deal.
I don't think Meyers is the answer at CF, like I said, he's a perfect #4 OF. That being said, Mullins hasn't really been good in like 4 years.
The idea is that Mullins has some upside relative to his 2025 performance (and thus his 2026 price tag). He was an MVP caliber player in 2021. Let's look at his underlying numbers that season vs 2025: 2021 : 2025: BB%: 8.7% : 10.0% Baserunning: 86th% : 90th% Exit Velocity: 89.4 : 88.8 O-Swing%: 27.4% : 24.3% CStr%: 17.3% : 14.1% SwStr%: 8.2% : 9.8% Sweet Spot%: 35.7% : 32.7% Whiff %: 20% : 23.1% Z-Contact%: 88.2% : 85.5% K%: 18.5% : 24.1% Barrel %: 8.1% : 6.2% Hard Hit %: 39.3% : 35.8% Fielding range: 97th% : 87th% Arm strength: 54th% : 45th% BABIP: .322 : .253 So he was better at taking walks, baserunning, and plate discipline in 2025 than he was in 2021. His exit velocity and contact are roughly the same. He is whiffing on a few balls that he crushed in 2021, and his fielding has gotten worse. It's probably fair to say that his defense is not going to rebound. But with some better batted ball luck and a slightly better approach (my guess is he's seeing more sliders and performing poorly against them), it's plausible to think he can be a 3 win player again. But the bottom line is that this idea is centered on the Astros being opportunistic. If Mullins is receiving 3+ year offers or $15M+/yr, then he's a bad bet. But if Houston could get him on something like $12M/1yr with a $10M 2nd year vesting option, that seems like a really good value. And again, this idea only works if both sides of it work out; if no other teams are willing to give up good value for Meyers, then it doesn't make sense to trade him, because he's a well-above average everyday CF when healthy, and probably worth $15M/yr on the open market. But I think Meyers (like Pena) is probably coming off of his peak season (.353 BABIP), so it's a good time to gauge his trade value. The other aspect of this is that Houston needs to balance their lineup, and depending on how the trade market shakes out, they may not have a lot of flexibility to do that. Assuming nobody bowls Houston over for Yainer Diaz or Jeremy Pena or Isaac Paredes, and nobody is willing to take on the majority of Christian Walker's contract, and Dana Brown isn't willing to give up on Cam Smith already, then CF is really the only place where they can swap out a RH hitter for a LH hitter.
You just made his case for him. They need an upgrade and if Dana has to give up premium talent to get a high OBP to play in the OF he should do it. An OF of high OBP/LHB guy/Cole/Smith is what I'm hoping for.
I don't have any issue with Mullins PER SE He is a proven talent and veteran leader who hits RH pitching well from the LH side and is an OF which is the area of need. At the right price and time commitment he's fine. But its just kicking the can down the road again. I would rather let Cole, Melton, Dezenzo, Matthews, Leon, or whoever else may deserve a shot have a chance to fill a spot for 5+ years cheaply.
I would agree. Also, I expect some of those names you listed to be traded in a deal for starting pitching. The CF market is garbage. Bellinger isn't coming here. No way you pay Trent Grisham after his crazy outlier HR season. Which means there isn't a guaranteed improvement over Meyers. I would rather let Cole have the job than spend it on Mullins. We need multiple starting pitchers. That should be priority 1, 2, and 3.
Mullins is on the decline. He’s ok but not what he was 3-4 years ago. Would not move the needle for the Astros.
I wouldn’t pay for Grisham… but would rather want a forward-thinking GM to acquire a player similar to what he was going into this year (traded/acquired by multiple teams, but ability to elevate to another level in the right situation). When was the last time an Astros GM acquired a player like that? Morton? Maybe Caratini?
Morton was probably the only true free agent that Houston has signed in the last 10 years who dramatically outplayed his contract. The first Brantley signing was pretty good. Caratini was a good signing but it’s like he was a star player, he was just a really really good backup C getting paid like an average backup C.
Looking at each player on Houston’s roster in terms of where their trade value might be relative to its peak: I believe Correa has a no-trade clause. Altuve is essentially untradeable as a franchise icon. Hunter Brown is the type of player you only trade if you intend on fully rebuilding. Blanco, Wesneski, and Walter are seriously injured and thus will not be traded. Diaz, Alvarez, Paredes, and Walker are all coming off of down seasons. Trading them at this point would be selling low. That may still make sense (especially in Walker’s case) but I believe all 4 guys will bounce back to some degree next season and probably have more value to Houston than they do other teams. The same could be said for Arrighetti, Hader, and Javier, and I think Bennett Sousa has more value with Houston than he does as a trade chip. Sanchez and Urias played poorly after Houston traded for them. Both guys are due raises, and they didn’t give up much for either guy, so it still might make sense to trade them, but both guys will likely play better next season than they did with Houston in 2025, so their values are in a trough. Salazar, McCormick, Trammell, McCormick, France, VanWey, De Los Santos, Garcia, Alexander, Ort, and Rooney are fringey major leaguers with no trade value. Smith, Matthews, Melton, Dezenzo, Cole, Corona, Leon, Whitcomb, Blubaugh, Murray, and Gordon are all essentially prospects, with varying degrees of value. Several of them might need to be traded if Houston is intent on acquiring a ToR SP, but otherwise all are worth keeping to see if they can develop into core players. Dubon, Pena, and Meyers are 3 guys who I think are coming off of career seasons and who are at their peak trade value. You could also include Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, and Steven Okert in this group. It probably doesn’t make sense to trade King or Okert since they’re unlikely to move the needle via trade. So if Houston is going to make significant moves via trade this offseason, I think Pena, Meyers, Abreu, and Dubon are the players most likely to be dealt. I know most people would expect Walker to be the most likely guy to be moved, but I just don’t see Houston selling low on a guy who has shown he can be a 3 win player, especially when the 1B free agent market is so deep. The SS and CF markets are barren, so I think it’s very possible that some team might be willing to overpay for Meyers or Pena.
Well... Dana did kinda try that except he only played for 1 team. His name is Jesus Sanchez and he stinks.
Probably would be an ok DH… but the Astros already have 2 (or 3?) DH’s on the roster. But there cannot be enough said about the value of a castoff that has renewed motivation to excel (and hopefully paired with a team that is forward-thinking and knows how to unlock untapped potential). Good teams need guys like Grisham. The Dodgers don’t go anywhere without Edman or Kike. They’re not stars, but they’re also not prospects either trying to adjust to the league’s adjustments or live up to expectations. Castoffs who exceed expectations are necessary for baseball/playoff success.
I don’t think Sanchez “stinks”. He didn’t produce as expected/hoped after the trade. But he’s a good hitter with some hints at potential for more. He has elite bat speed and very good underlying power numbers. He chases and whiffs and hits the ball on the ground enough to limit him. But he is a slightly above average hitter that with the right tweak could be come a very very good hitter. Defensively he is not a standout but is playable on the field, at least while he’s still in his 20s. He has a strong arm but is a below average runner. Overall he is an average defensive corner outfielder and slightly below average baserunner. He is projected to make $6.5M next season, which isn’t nothing, but is still a pretty good value. I will not be upset at all if Houston sticks with him to pair with Altuve in LF and serve as a hedge against a young OF not panning out or simply to deepen the roster. I don’t expect him to be a star but it will not surprise me if he has a moderate breakout with something like 2.5 fwar and a 120 wRC+. If they trade him, I hope they at least get a good prospect (one that would fit in Houston’s org top 15).
No.. I don't want to hear all that. I'm spoiled. I want the 2019 lineup where 4 dudes had 30 or more HRs and 9 guys had an OPS North of .800
