Considering this is pretty much the only major Rockets transaction news at the moment and we are approaching the extension deadline, it seemed like a good idea to start a consolidated thread on it. Make predictions or share thoughts
That is his only way to guarantee a 'Home in the NBA' after OKC disavowed him. And Golden State only viewed him as a minor cog in their history. And he has been journey man-ing ever since. And he himself refused to play for his home area team Washington.
KD on a two year extension somewhere between 100 and 110m is an easy call. Tari is a more difficult decision. Remember, we’ll likely have to extend Amen at the max. I don’t have a handle on the number, but I wouldn’t extend Tari on a figure that would eventually put us into the second apron in 2027 assuming Amen is on a max contract and KD is still on the team.
I don’t think Tari gets extended this year. He will either be traded or the Rockets will sign him as a RFA next year. It’s just about money, not Tari. It is impossible to give Tari what he wants and extend Durant for over 50M. Only way it gets done is if Durant gives us a big discount and I’m not sure why he would do that so soon after joining the team. Only the FO and Tari know how his health prognosis is affecting the negotiations. If Tari is confident in his long-term health than he should bet on himself and just play great all year and get his bag next year.
If you're worried about the apron in 27-28, remember the FVV contract will be off the books. You can also cut ties with DFS, Capela, and Adams by that point. That's over 60m in contracts that you can move to drop below second apron and still try to compete with this core at the presumed end of the KD competitive window.
True, but that’s still likely over 180m between Bari, Smith, Sheppard, KD, and Amen with a projected cap of 174. And you have to fill out the rest of the roster. Add Tari on, say, 20 mil, that’s over 200m with a projected 220m second apron and a ton of roster spots to fill.
The fact that they are already minutes managing Tari means the health issues are expected to be long term. So whatever extension offer they put in front of him is likely not as much as one would think, and probably has provisions for partial guarantees or team options. I imagine Tari would want to bet on himself and try to get a big offer. KD extension was set in stone the moment he was traded. You don't trade for KD and leave him out to dry. There are probably just deciding over the structure of the contract to minimize tax burdens
Look ahead of it and make the tough move. I said back during last season and recently after we signed DFS that Tari most likely isn’t a rocket on his second contract. It’s sad to think about but it’s the business. Deal him while his value is high and the vibes are still good. Don’t let this situation go toxic.
Yes, Tari seems to be Prime Grade A 100% guaranteed trade bait. The team is stacked at the forward spots (and this with Dorian Finney-Smith still out). Tari deserves a decent contract extension but he'll probably get it elsewhere.
Clyde got #22 retired and only won one so hell yeah, retire #7 if he gets us two. If his health and longevity hold up, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays here for 5 seasons.
I think the addition of DFS instead of a rotation quality guard was an indication of their intentions with Tari - I think it's a mistake not to extend him.
You left off Sengun, and your math is a little off. Let's say KD 56 + Amen 41 + Sengun 37 + Jabari 22 + Tari 20 + Shepphard 14 = 190 for 27-28. A second apron for 27-28 is currently projected around 245m. That would leave a bit over $50m to fill out the 7-12 roster spots. I think that's doable.
I didn’t forget Sengun, I just forgot to list him. And your figure for Amen is too low. If Amen signs a max, it’ll be around 5 years / 270, with the first year around 47 - 50, hence around 175 - 180 for our five starters. I misspoke before as I meant the first apron is projected to be 220 in 2027 - 2028 - according to RealGM, the projected second Aron in 2027 - 2028 is 234, not 245. That’s just not a lot of room if you extend Tari at 20m+. Either way, the choice will likely be between a deep team around KD without Tari, or a much thinner team with him.
Let me change the direction of the Tari talk. DFS is insurance in case Tari is not fully recovered. If Tari is 100% this year AND is willing to sign a reasonable extension, then DFS will be traded next offseason. Stone seems like he gets the whole talent situation. Tari on a decent contract will bridge the post KD era and become a long term starter for the Rockets. It seems like many people view Tari as a luxury, while I tend to view him as a core piece of this Rockets team.
I was basing the Amen projection off the max that Jalen Williams just signed 5/240 which started 41.5. So 5/270 should start about 5 or 6 higher, let’s say 6 over. That puts the math for those 6 at 196, not over 200. I looked at some website called salaryswish for the second apron projection and it gave me the 245 number for second apron. The realgm number of 234 still leave us at 38m for the rest of the roster past the core 6. I agree that’s a thinner roster that requires some good draft picks to fill out an 8 or 9 man rotation. But it’s certainly possible. This is a competitive window and Tari is a young guy who is very talented. Do you want to lose a core young player because you’re worried about the back end of the bench two years down the line? I think it’s worth hanging onto a good young player and figuring out your 9-13 spots two down the line. I don’t think he’s a negative asset at that number.
