Doing a review of the 4 teams remaining, here’s how their regular season production broke down: Mariners: MVP caliber (5+ fwar) position players: 2 Star (3-5 fwar) pitchers: 1 Everyday caliber (1.5-3fwar) position players: 5 Quality (1.5-3fwar) pitchers: 5 Total pitching fwar: 14.2 Total position player fwar: 26.5 Blue Jays: MVP position players: 1 Star position players: 4 Star pitchers: 1 Everyday position players: 5 Solid pitchers: 1 Total pitching fwar:11.7 Total position player fwar: 32.6 Brewers: Star position players: 3 Star pitchers: 1 Everyday position players: 5 Solid pitchers: 5 Total pitching fwar:18.6 Total position player fwar: 28.2 Dodgers: MVP position players: 1 MVP pitchers: 1 Star position players: 4 Everyday position players:2 Solid pitchers: 7 So the average team that made it to the CS this year had: 1 MVP level position player 3 star level hitters 1 star level pitcher 4 everyday position players 5 solid pitchers Mapping that to Houston’s current 2026 projections: MVP level position player: 0 4 star level hitters (Alvarez, Pena, Paredes, Correa) 1 star level pitcher (Brown) 3 everyday position players (Meyers, Diaz, Altuve) 3 solid pitchers (Javier, Abreu, Hader) So the need to get up to that standard would be to add: 2 solid pitchers (replace Framber and add another innings eater) 1 everyday hitter (find a young hitter to break out, count on a Walker rebound, or go get an OF or 2B)
I agree, but he’s not going to project for 5+ fwar, which was my (pretty arbitrary) criteria. He did put up MVP level stats in 2022 and 2024. Pena put up MVP type numbers this season but won’t project to be that good next year. Correa is capable of MVP numbers. Altuve’s MVP tier performances are almost certainly behind him.
An ideal season where Houston wins the World Series next year could look something like this in terms of regular season fwar: Alvarez 5.5 Pena 4.0 Paredes 3.5 Correa 3.5 Diaz 2.5 Meyers 2.5 Altuve 2.5 TBD OF/2B 2.0 All other position players combined 4.0 Brown 4.0 TBD SP 3.5 Javier 2.5 TBD SP 2.5 Hader 2.0 Abreu 1.5 All other pitchers combined 4.0 That’s 30 position player fwar and 20 from pitchers, for 50 total, which is the typical threshold for dominant teams over the last 5-10 years.
1. Sign really Talented Pitchers and Hitters in Latin America 2. Top 3 MLB Draft Picks need to be a Hit, not a Miss. 1st Round Pick is a Lottery Pick, hopefully the Astros Draft Higher. (Framber Valdez leaves in FA is one of the Picks.) 3. Christian Walker, Lance McCullers, Josh Hader, Cristian Javier all need to be traded for Younger Talent that can Hit for a High Average, less Strike Outs. Young Pitchers needs to command their Pitches. 4. Chas McCormick needs to be moved on
He's going to make $43m over the next two seasons for a guy who's pitched ~70 innings over these last two seasons with an era north of 4. Drastically overpaid. And he was bad in 23 well before he ever got injured.
He's never pitched a full season... and even when he was first called up, there was concerns about his ability to pitch a starters-worth of innings, along with his stamina/endurance during games as is (which was tied into conditioning). Yet another reason why they were more than willing to sign the early extension.
His conditioning has improved... he learned what happens when you don't with Garcia. The results were getting there when he returned. Pitchers that literally have no hitter stuff don't grow on trees, and he's more efficient than LMJ, which I admit is an incredibly low bar.
28 year old starter with crazy stuff when he's right. Obviously we'll never know, but if he were a free agent today, I suspect he'd get a contract well north of 2 years / $43MM. Everyone is expected to have TJ surgery these days, so I don't think his limited 2024/2025 affect his value much.
There’s zero chance Javier would get $43M/2yrs if he were a free agent. He wouldn’t even be among the top 10 SP available. He’s coming off TJ and had a 4.62 era with 4.97 xFIP. He’d be looking for a pillow contract and probably end up getting something like $14M/1yr if that. That said, I still think it’s 50/50 that he makes good on his contract. It’s underwater currently but I don’t think it’ll end up being tjay bad in the end.
Completely disagree. No one's going to evaluate him on a handful of starts coming back midseason this year. Coming off TJ is irrelevant in the bigger picture given the recovery rate and commonness of it. If anything, it makes it a little less likely he'll need it over the next year or two. From MLB.com's 2024 free agent list, the #10 and #11 free agent starting pitchers were Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea. They got $55MM and $75MM contracts despite being 32 and 33 years old. Of the top 15 pitchers available, five signed 1 year deals, and their ages were 37, 42, 41, 34, and 35.
Who was the last free agent starting pitcher to sign a contract >$40M after coming off two consecutive seasons of <40 ip? (I couldn’t find a single example, although I didn’t spend a ton of time looking.)
The free agent crop is not strong. Teams will still spend stupid money possibly including $86 mil for 3 years of Framber.
if that is all it took to keep Framber, then let's go for it. 30 million a year for a workhorse without a crazy longterm commitment would be a good deal.
im not sure but the sample size to work with seems pretty miniscule, especially when you narrow to good players in their primes. Ohtani has pitched a total of 50 innings the last two years combined and had TJ surgery. Even if he could never hit again and wasn’t a country’s hero, i suspect someone would sign him exclusively as a pitcher today for more than $40mm. Clay Holmes wasn’t even a starter and only pitched 60 innings a year for several years and got paid more than that to just see if he could maybe be a starter.
So the comp for Javier that you’re relying on to make your point is…Shohei Ohtani. Cool. No team is going to willingly commit $40M+ to a pitcher with 2 consecutive lost seasons, especially to a guy that has never really been that good before that. His resume includes a career high of 3.0 fwar and only one season of >150 ip. He’s not a guy that on the surface has elite stuff; people who are high on him think there’s something about him that can play up. There’s nothing about him aside from maybe his age that makes him somebody who could command a sizable free agent contract.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025...sharp-matt-forman-in-front-office-search.html Click in the running for Colorado GM.
It’s not that it’s a crazy longterm commitment to a workhorse. It’s more like a longterm commitment to a crazy workhorse.
