In no scenario would he be giving up next years salary. He has a player option and he can exercise that option no matter what team he is on. He's going to collect that $50m, no question about it. What he would be giving up is the ability to get another contract of size above any exception starting in 2027-28. If he keeps his bird rights, the Rockets would have the ability to sign him to a number above their cap space then trade him elsewhere. Lose the bird rights, that scenario is no longer an option and a team can only use actual cap space to offer him a contract greater than the minimum or one of the exceptions (BAE, ROOM, MLE). I don't believe an NBA team would find an aging guard of very limited offensive ability coming off an injury worth more than those exceptions to begin with - but @Joe Joe makes a good point that those bird rights allow the team to sign him and use that exception on another player. He would be 33 to start that next contract .... I'd pretty much bet that this is his last contract paying above the minimum, if he gets another contract at all. Guards over 33 just don't have a lot of value in the league - unless they are special in some way - great shooter, great defender, great table setter - FVV is really none of the above.
This just goes into the calculus of why FVV was a mistake. Stone made a bet and he lost. You can look at the arguments for and against at his time of signing and see merit in why he was chosen over another option. Stone bet this summer he was right on this option and it proved to be wrong definitively. Now we have lost him for the year and I doubt he ever plays for the Rockets again after next summer. I fully see him as an opt in and trade candidate. Again what looked like a smart strategy with financial flexibility has backfired. Many GMs would have made this choice given the circumstances but now you take the L. Hopefully, we are able to dump him.
We just got rid of a chucker with poor defense. Why would we bring in another with even worse defense than the one we got rid of?
The problem was that they had no other way to fill the PG spot with anyone making more than the MLE (which they used on DFS), I think that was the mistake - they could have gotten Ty Jerome who signed for 3 years $27m with Memphis with that money - and he was a great fit, being one of the best shooters at the position while also being one of the most efficient pick and roll ball handlers too. FVV, Jerome & Shepard would have been a good guard group with Holiday as insurance. They were boxed in by the salary cap - signing FVV was really their only option. I don't think there was a player they could have gotten in a sign and trade using FVV that made a difference either. It just sucks that he got hurt. No, I don't think he plays for the team again either .... he'll likely get traded after opting into his contract next season, assuming he isn't traded before that.
Bad defense, certainly. I'm not sure I'd call Young a chucker, though, given he puts up decent efficiency and was last year's assists per game leader by over an assist and a half. I just can't call a guy who averaged almost 12 apg a "chucker."
If you watch him, he takes an awful lot of bad shots .... mostly really deep 3's. When you've been a Rocket fan for the last 60 years with the franchise at the forefront of analytics, those are enough to drive you crazy. Thanks Daryl ....
He has worse fg% AND 3p% than Jalen Green last season whilst taking more shots. That definitely qualifies as a chucker tbh lol.
Yeah tbh I think FVV signing had a lot of Ime into it, Ime just signed a 6 yr extension he has a lot of pull and FVV is his boy. At the time I thought no contender would even pay 12M for FVV but we offered a "fair" contract of 22M for 2 yrs.
So you would have moved Amen to the dunker spot in favor of one of the worst PG’s in the NBA (FVV) and two 2nd stream guards (if Sheppard is even that) and a third stream guard. Not a good idea at all. What is it about our offense that you dislike so much through 3 pre-season games?
Forgive me, but after reading your response I realized I confused you with the context of how I worded my post. I meant the original signing of FVV. We agree on the situation this summer. I think the original signing of FVV was the mistake.
Great reliable option because the other (forced) starter is clueless. Great relationship with coach and now player’s association president
What would you have done instead / who would you have signed to babysit the kids? I don't see signing FVV as a mistake back then, someone had to teach those kids how to become professionals - or we keep going down the road of KPJ and the likes? With all the youth on this team, one bad influence could have derailed the entire rebuild. Imagine Tari, Jabari and Jalen running with KPJ .... This team needed a mentor and Fred delivered that while Brooks delivered the backbone. What they didn't have was an exit strategy from Fred. When it was time to move on, they didn't and it bit them in the ass.
Who cares though? We saw exactly how far Ime Udoka kind of players could take the Rockets last year - to a lot of regular season wins, but in the playoffs when you have to generate offense with one hand tied behind your back - not much further. I mean, the Rockets best play IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS was to throw up an outside shot and get the rebound and it...actually worked (?)... I started this thread years ago - IMO the Rockets would undoubtedly been a far more difficult team to deal with last year in the playoffs if it was Trae Young running the show rather than FVV and Jalen. The lack of a halfcourt offensive engine was the greatest weakness & the Rockets were pretty well equipped to compensate defneisvely.
Exit strategy was Amen and Reed playing a lot in 2 years when FVV's contract runs out, with the hope Reed is playing 30 mpg before the 2 years were up. FVV getting hurt does not affect the exit strategy. The only problem is that FVV got hurt for a season. Minor injuries would have been fine (<22 games in a season). FVV, Amen, Durant, and Sengun would have been the backbone of an insane defense. Two guards that can switch onto bigger players while also being good to great at the POA and very good off ball (people talk about Jalen Green getting better defensively, but that was mostly POA which he did much less last season). Sengun can handle power players, and works well with scram switching (i.e., while he's the not the best on the perimeter, he's great at keeping track of his man to switch quickly to stay inside). Durant is a great low man. I'd like someone a little more mobile than JSJ or Tari with those 4, but both of those guys would have still worked.
Not to disagree with your point that Young is a better offensive option than FVV - But it appears that they have doubled down on the quoted part above - rebounding is going to be a big part of their offense, especially in the double big lineup. As for the Young / FVV debate, I'm not particularly a fan of either as your starting point guard - I don't believe you win with either of them at the highest level because they are equally flawed, just in different ways. Fred being so limited offensively and Young being terrible defensively while taking a lot of questionable shots .... those logo 3's should make a Rocket fan cringe.
I agree with this take. There is always the reaction of x signing was bad because we don't like that player/we don't like that contract/etc...but I think it's important to understand the alternative options on the table at the time to understand why Fred is here and I like that you dug deeper into how the DFS move was part of that context. Good post!
