My guess as to how much they’ll have to spend based on what they do: Tender errbody: $20M Non-tender fringier players: $30M Non-tender fringier players and trade Walker: $50M
I wish we could free up walkers salary but I'm guessing we'll have to cover a significant portion of it. Hopefully we can cover more from 2027 with the lockout looming.
I would non tender Garcia, Trammell, McCormick, Sanchez, Dubon and possibly Urias ...... that is $19.5 million to $23 million. There are internal options for just about all of those players. The one possible exception would be Dubon, which is nearly $6 million but he can play everywhere. They can also add sweeteners to some of their existing contracts and move them if they really want to - such as Christian Walker. They are going to need a #2 start and a #4 type starter.... that can be in free agency or in trade. Based on what Brown said a few days ago, it seems the #2 starter will be in trade. That lines up with what I have heard from people around the Astros. The #4 type starter can be someone like Merrill Kelly that will cost such that they may have to move Walker or NT Dubon and Sanchez, or they could take a chance on someone like Montgomery or Gallen. They also have some interest in an outfielder, which surprises me somewhat - and that would likely be FA
Dubon has been worth 2.7, 1.1, and 1.8 bWAR the past three seasons. At standard cost of WAR on the market, he's a bargain at $6m. He was our 6th most valuable position player this year by bWAR and there wasn't a particularly close 7th. And, as you say, he can fill in every position defensively except C, which makes roster construction much easier with a limited bench and a roster of injury-prone and older guys. And he's not just a fill in, he's very good in the field wherever he plays.
Hot take: Astros two timeline approach won't work any better than how it did with the Warriors. Go all in now when the window is open after a down year and sign Bregman to play in left.
Yes - while Dubon isn't a good hitter, he isn't a total black hole -- and he can play almost everywhere. It saves roster spots, and he is very well liked in the clubhouse and is a leader. It comes down to how bad you need that extra $6,000,000.
Because the Astros have been a legitimate threat to make and win the WS for almost a decade - fans forget how relatively rare it is to have a team that can genuinely compete for a title. Entire rebuilds never reach that point at least half the time. With that in mind, I think that the 2026 Astros can be the best Astros team in at least 2-3 years with average health - so I would support "going for it". I don't think I would be foolish about it..... but I would rather "go for it" or sell off guys to teams like the Padres --- than just remain in the middle.
I think there are so many other places to trim fat on the roster. We are paying Javier, Walker, and LMc a combined $59m next season for a trio that was worth a collective -0.8 bWAR this year. That's a mountain of poorly spent payroll that's 10x larger than what Dubon would make. Perhaps they can find a taker for some of that dead weight, if staying below the CBT in 2026 is critical to the front office. Altuve's salary in the next couple seasons was always going to be an albatross, but right now they have a whole rookery.
Not too many OF that would be a surefire upgrade over Smith/Meyers/Cole/etc. Grisham Tucker Yastrzemski Mullins O’Hearn Ozuna Schwarber It makes a lot more sense for them to be looking for OF if they expect to trade Meyers or Smith for pitching.
Outside of SS it seems like we can cover every other spot. And for SS we can have CC back up JP3. If we sustain a major injury, there are always the Zack shorts of the world. It seems to come down to how valuable the 6 mil is and if they believe in the young guys to fill in bench spots. Curious to see which 4 players will fill out the bench roles.
I'd bring Tucker back on a 2 year $20mil/yr deal... done. We may have to bench him for the playoffs though.
They’re in the middle now. With a top 5-10 payroll. (And within that top 5-10 payroll, they’re not spending premium dollars for an MVP candidate or a front-line starter… i.e., poor allocation of money). And now they’re probably going to compound the situation by trading decent value contracts/players for pitching.
I don't think they are in the middle. With even average health they have the best record in baseball. They need to trade for another starter that is a #2 starter or they need to start talking to the Padres and other teams about moving guys like Pena and Brown for top prospects.
Any interest in Bellinger lol? Or cost and with Correa back, it'll be a bad fit? That Mark Feinsand guy made a prediction back in September on Astros going after him.
I was guessing between 50-60 mil. That should be plenty to add a couple of quality SP, a young bat in a trade and a reliever. Sign SP Perpoit in a trade, he should be cheap because he's young. SP Gallen 20 mil in FA, bounce back candidate OF Wilyer Abreu type OF RP Okert type pitcher This should be doable with money left over
True, but I would non tender Dubon just to keep the temptation away from Espada from using him too much.
1. With average Framber over the last 6 weeks, they’re likely in the playoffs. If Yordan doesn’t twist his ankle on home plate, they’re likely in the playoffs. 2. The injuries weren’t necessarily all flukes… Yordan is injury prone, every pitcher in the game is injury prone (except Framber), it was a weak year for the AL. The Astros had the 4th highest payroll in the AL. The above two statements represent two different paths Crane can take. If you believe more in one, they should be going all in to improve what’s left of this team, tax be damned (as the system goes belly-up in 2027 anyways). If you believe #2 (and can’t acquire decent pitching without giving up solid pieces), you should be moving towards a rebuild. (But you are who you are after 162, and if you’re not in the playoffs, and you’re not bottoming out… you’re in the middle.)
