Well, might as well get this ball rolling. Minor League Opening Day is March 27 as Sugar Land starts with a weekend series against the Round Rock Express. Their two International League opponents will be the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (Marlins) and the Nashville Sounds (Brewers). The Space Cowboys will travel to Jacksonville for their first road series of 2026 (March 31-April 5), while Nashville will come to Constellation Field for six from July 21-26. Corpus Christi will begin their season on April 2 (a Thursday) by hosting the Frisco Roughriders. The Asheville Tourists will open their 2026 campaign in Rome (Braves) on Friday, April 3. The Tourists will be on the road for their first three series of the season as their home park, McCormick Field, is undergoing renovations. Their home opener will take place on April 21 against Greenville. And finally, Fayetteville is starting their season on April 3 with a home series against the Wilson Warbirds (Brewers). The Warbirds were formerly known as the Carolina Mudcats and were based in Zebulon, North Carolina, before relocating approximately 30 minutes east to Wilson. Naturally, this move was not well-received in Zebulon, and they've played the "no investment in our neck of the woods" card. I don't think there are many of us in eastern North Carolina, so the details probably aren't important. And now, the usual two sections: my breakout picks and the guys who are entering critical years. My breakout players for 2026 Position player: Ethan Frey - Probably cheating here. Frey got 122 plate appearances in Fayetteville and more or less proved that Class A was rather easy for him. He's firmly a top-10 prospect right now. I think Frey starts in Asheville but he should spend the majority of 2026 in Corpus. Pitcher: Uh... check back at the end of April? Make or Break Jacob Melton - Well, Zach Cole's emergence has put legit pressure on Melton. Melton still has a good ceiling and could still become an everyday player, but the bat must progress in 26. Luis Baez - The late-season rebound was encouraging. It's not a true make-or-break situation for Baez yet since he'll be 22 and repeating Corpus, but other developments in his position group (Cole again and also Joseph Sullivan making it to AA) and level might have him feeling some heat. Pedro Leon - This surely has to be his absolute last stand. State of the System Last year was a banner year down in the DSL as a lot of kids made an impact out of the gate. This year's draft class will all hinge on Neyens, with Frey getting most of the rest of the load. This is still a bottom-10 system, but there's a lot to be encouraged about here. A couple of the 2025 draftees besides Frey breaking out, some DSL kids holding their own in their US debuts, and some rebounds from someone like Luis Baez, Kenni Gomez, and/or Jeron Williams could bring some real positive momentum. The Astros really need to stop throwing away draft picks via free agency. I hope they have a full complement of draft picks available next June. My top 30 entering 2026 Alright, I will use the MLB rookie criteria moving forward. I don't know how anyone has yet to call me out on this after all these years. Matthews, Blubaugh, and Melton should lose their rookie status next season. 1. Xavier Neyens 2. Brice Matthews 3. A.J. Blubaugh 4. Jacob Melton 5. Miguel Ullola 6. Zach Cole 7. Ethan Pecko 8. Ethan Frey 9. Walker Janek 10. Kevin Alvarez 11. Alonzo Tredwell 12. Bryce Mayer 13. Ryan Forcucci 14. Jackson Nezuh 15. Anderson Brito 16. Alimber Santa 17. Jose Fleury 18. James Hicks 19. Juan Bello 20. Will Bush 21. Parker Smith 22. Luis Baez 23. Pedro Leon 24. Trey Dombroski 25. Lucas Spence 26. Caden Powell 27. Anthony Huezo 28. Jancel Villarroel 29. Ramsey David 30. German Ramirez Others of note Collin Price Jeron Williams Nick Monistere Kyle Walker Kenni Gomez Hector Salas Nolan DeVos Nehomar Ochoa Dylan Howard Brett Gillis Jean Pinto Joan Ogando Gabel Pentecost Nick Potter Jesus Carrera Raimy Rodriguez Juan Sierra - my sleeper pick. Sierra signed for a modest bonus in 2022 and he's put in some solid work in the complex leagues. I think he's ready for a full-season look and a solid showing should put him on a few radars. Anderson Arenaimo Yensi De La Cruz Omar Damian Anthony Millan Sami Manzueta
Have u head anything about Forcucci? Will he be starting the season on time? Does his recovery bleed into the season?
Breakout position player: Ethan Frey Breakout pitcher: Brett Gillis Make or break: Pedro Leon, Kenedy Corona, Jacob Melton, Tyler Whitaker, Andrew Taylor, Nolan DeVos State of the system: Farm is on a major upswing. The lower levels will be very talented. The 2nd/3rd tier are top notch. Their OF, C, and P crop are top notch. There is a glaring lack of quality infield prospects in the middle of the system. I’d rank them in the 18-24 range of the league, but they’re only one really good prospect away from being in the 12-18 range. They could get huge boosts if they trade Pena or Paredes, and they’ll get a huge boost in the next draft. Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: Final 2025 Update 3B Xavier Neyens 55 (NR): I'm really high on Neyens and think he was one of the 15 best players in the draft, but he may not move very quickly. 2B Brice Matthews 55 (2): He's a really good, high upside prospect who just needs a little more time. OF Jacob Melton 50+ (4): I had listed him under graduated prospects but he was surprisingly optioned before his eligibility expired. Disappointing MLB debut but the ceiling is still there. P Ethan Pecko 50+ (5): His AAA innings and associated savant data looked really, really good. I'm very very high on him. C Walker Janek 50+ (6): Arizona Fall League will be a good opportunity for him to get some shine back. P Miguel Ullola 50 (7): I'm still in. Best fastball of any player in Houston's system outside of Hunter Brown. Still young enough to get the walks under control. Could probably strike big league hitters out now if he had to. OF Kevin Alvarez 50 (16): Couldn't ask for more from a pro debut; it'll be 2+ years before we have concrete info, but his stock is rising. OF Zach Cole 45+ (28): He's had a huge resurgence and was called up to the majors. The k rate still points strongly to him busting, but his ceiling is too high to ignore. OF Ethan Frey 45+ (NR): Excellent bb/k ratios in A ball but with almost no power. Still excited to see what he does next year, could be a fast riser. OF Joseph Sullivan 45+ (15): Cooled off a bit in AA but still a great year. P Ryan Forcucci 45+ (22): Patience. P Anderson Brito 45+ (13): He is healthy and going to pitch in the Arizona Fall League and could raise his stock quite a bit there. P Bryce Mayer 45+ (HM): Made it to AA and has maintained a high k rate. Big upside. P Alonzo Tredwell 45+ (HM): Dramatically raised his stock after reaching AA. P Jackson Nezuh 45+ (12): Really liked the reduced walk rate after he got back from injury. 2026 breakout candidate. P James Hicks 45 (18): Healthy again, profiles as the type of pitcher who gets called up and holds his own as an SP 5/6 similar to Gusto/Gordon this year. C Jase Mitchell 45 (NR): Betting on Dana Brown. C/1B Will Bush 45 (HM): Very good 100 pa sample in AA to end the season. P Alimber Santa 45 (HM): Trending for an add to the 40 man this fall. P Jayden Murray 45 (HM): Got called up and looked really good and projects as a AAAA MR, but there's upside for more. Injuries really clouded his development. OF Luis Baez 45 (14): A huge rebound month has his stock back up. Still risky due to defensive limitations but the big bat potential is obviously still there. OF Lucas Spence 45 (NR): Very solid sample in AA in his first full season. Projects as a bench player or fringe regular, but he's a real prospect. P Jose Fleury 45 (23): Got beat up badly in AAA so his stock is trending down. P Juan Bello 45 (20): Overall he had a solid season considering his age, level, and league OF Kenedy Corona 45 (29): Will probably get one more season on the 40 man to try to break out in AAA. OF Pedro Leon 45 (26): Looked good in rehab stint in AAA. Next year will be the last chance for him to break in with Houston. C Jancel Villarroel 45 (HM): Struggled pretty badly after his promotion to High A but it was a small sample. P Cole Hertzler 45 (HM): Was extremely good in A ball before getting hurt. P Ramsey David 45 (HM): Reached AA in first full season, which usually bodes well. P Trey Dombroski 45 (HM): Decent year in AA and got a taste of AAA. Rule 5 eligible so how that plays out will tell us what the front office thinks of him. Graduated: RF Cam Smith (1), OF Zach Dezenzo (3), P AJ Blubaugh (8), OF/IF Shay Whitcomb (9), P Ryan Gusto (17) (traded), P Colton Gordon (19), Brandon Walter (HM) Traded: IF Chase Jaworsky (11), OF Esmil Valencia (HM), P Twine Palmer (HM) Honorable Mention: C: Miguel Palma (30), Collin Price, Yosweld Vasquez, Garret Guillemette, Arturo Flores, Jason Schiavone, Alexi Quiroz, Carlos Cauro, Andrews Sosa, Kedaur Trujillo; Price and Palma could suprise as they are holding their own in AAA and Houston will need a 3rd C next year; Guillemette had a great season and was doing really well in AA before getting hurt; late season promotions showed organizational faith in Schiavone, Trujillo, Vasquez, Sosa, and Flores; Cauro looked really good before getting hurt early in the season. IF: Alberto Hernandez, German Ramirez, Juan Rojas, Zach Daudet, Nick Monistere, Kyle Walker, Landon Arroyos, Caden Powell, Trevor Austin, Anderson Areinamo, Pascanel Ferreras, Jeron Williams, Alejandro Nunez, Camilo Diaz, Sami Manzueta, Hector Salas, Sandro Pereira, Wes Clarke; significantly better than at this time last season; Austin and Ferreras were league average bats in AA, the draftees looked good in small samples; the complex league guys also are a big reason for optimism; I am VERY high on Manzueta. OF: Kenni Gomez (10), Nehomar Ochoa (21), Yamal Encarnacion, Justin Thomas, Elijah Farley, DJ Newman, Colin Barber, Chase Call, Ethan Wagner, Anthony Millan, Karniel Pratt, Roiner Quintana, Juan Sierra, Tyler Whitaker, Cesar Hernandez, Anthony Huezo, Luis Rives, Ariel Lebron; a lot of talent here, and the early returns from the draft are positive. Very disappointing seasons from Gomez and Ochoa but those were more than offset by other guys breaking out. The Astros' farm is stacked with OF. P: All of them but especially Alex Santos (35), Logan VanWey (24), Michael Knorr, Nick Potter, Wilmy Sanchez, Hudson Leach, Amilcar Chirinos, Brett Gillis, Brandon McPherson, Patrick Halligan, Jank Pichardo, Nolan DeVos, Colby Langford, Raimy Rodriguez, Jagger Beck, Joan Ogando, Luis Rodriguez, Jhoster Baez, Parker Smith, Andrew Taylor, Manuel Urias, Ryan Verdugo, Omar Damian, Gabel Pentecost, Grayson Saunier, Kellen Oakes, Francisco Frias, Rafael Gonzalez, Norbis Diaz, Juan Fraide, Anthony Cruz, Tyler Guilfoil, Joey Mancini; lots to like but impossible to know which ones will pan out and stay healthy.
Projected 2026 minor league rosters: AAA: C Price 1B Clarke 2B Matthews SS TBD minor league free agent SS 3B Whitcomb RF Leon CF Melton LF Corona DH Dezenzo Bench: Barber, Sacco, Palma, TBD minor league free agent C SP: Ullola, Pecko, Gordon, Fleury, Dombroski, Mancini, Ivey RP: Murray, Santa, Leach, Knorr, Guilfoil, Halligan Note: Trades, NRI signings, pitching injuries, and the big league roster competitions will impact this in a big way, so it may not end up being a very accurate prediction. But outside of the middle infield I expect the AAA roster to be very very good. AA: C Janek 1B Bush 2B Austin SS Williams 3B Ferreras RF Sullivan CF Spence LF Y Encarnacion DH Baez Bench: Guillemette, Garcia, Sherwin, Whitaker SP: Tredwell, Brito, Mayer, Nezuh, Hicks, Gillis, David, Santos II, Urias, Taylor RP: Sanchez, Chirinos, Torres Note: The bench could shake out differently but that lineup will probably be pretty accurate. The rotation will be stacked, the OF will be very good, but the infield is suspect. High A: C Villarroel 1B Schiavone 2B Walker SS Powell 3B Nunez RF Frey CF Gomez LF C Hernandez DH Brutcher Bench: Trujillo, Holy, Salas, Lytle P: Bello, L Rodriguez, DeVos, Howard, A Cruz, McPherson, N Diaz, Langford, A Pena, Y Santos, Serrano, P Smith, Hertzler Note: The 2 lower levels might not be accurate but there’s a lot of talent so both rosters should be good, as will the FCL roster. A: C Vasquez 1B Flores 2B A Hernandez SS Monistere 3B C Diaz RF Ochoa CF Huezo LF Thomas DH Daudet Bench: G Ramirez, Forrester, Call, Sosa P: Oakes, Forcucci, Verdugo, Pentecost, R Rodriguez, Frias, Ogando, Martich, J Perez, Rosario, Potter, Saunier, A Smith
A little lite reading ... Astros Draft Failure The Astros haven’t picked a successful first or second round draft pick since 2015.
It’s fair criticism that the Astros whiffed on their top picks for the 4 year stretch from 2016-2019. That failure was exacerbated by losing their top picks in 2020-2021. So if they’d stopped there, it’s a legit narrative: no team can go 6 straight seasons without drafting a good player in the top 2 rounds and expect to be contending. And really that is a major criticism of Luhnow, who was the GM for the 2016-2019 picks and was the GM in charge when the team got busted cheating and lost the 2020-2021 picks. But it’s way too early to judge the 2022 and 2023 drafts.
Late round finds are always great, but I feel that in baseball, the first 2-3 picks are the ones that need to contribute something to their drafting MLB club before they move on. Our cult-hero GM really just did whatever after he got the Astros out of the top 3-5 picks and I felt like trading away Bukauskas/Beer was his way of washing his hands of his flops.
Cult hero GM? He built a dynasty that with good decisions should last a decade after he's gone. Part of being successful is knowing when to cut your losses and move on. I hope Dana davelops this attitude when it comes to trading Matthews and Melton. Are they going to be good MLB players? Maybe/Probably, but if the goal the goal is to win a championship then they're useful trade pieces. Where Luhnow was really successful was finding Latin American pitchers and concentrating on finding guys on the back fields like Alvarez/Gonzalez etc... was a strength that somehow the Stros as an org have stopped doing.
"washing his hands of his flops" Uh, huh JBB, Martin, and Beer were traded for Greinke What a bunch of bust draft picks!
Something odd on the transactions page yesterday, the Astros released 10 DSL players, 6 of whom were Venezuelan, most of whom just completed their first pro season and some of them put up pretty good numbers.
A position group by position group by level analysis of the farm system. But first, a repeat of something I’ve mentioned a bunch over the last couple of years: Houston’s farm system is really only 1-2 MLB Top ~75 prospects away from being above average. AAA: C: Collin Price, Miguel Palma. These are both grade 40 prospects; Price probably is what he is, but Palma has had an uneven development and might still have some untapped upside. I don’t think Dana Browm relishes the idea of having either of them as 3rd on the big league depth chart. That said, it appears that Houston intends to bring in a backup catcher, which would push Cesar Salazar down to AAA and make this group adequate. IF: Brice Matthews, Shay Whitcomb, Tommy Sacco, Wes Clarke. Matthews is a very good prospect, and Whitcomb is a fine versatile optionable upside bat. Sacco is a reasonable 13th AAA position player. Clarke’s bat has tremendous upside and I’m assuming he will be in AAA next season after crushing AA. But this is a glaringly shallow group, and Houston is going to have to again bring in 2-3 AAAA infielders for depth. This group and the AA infield group are the Achilles heel of Houston’s farm system. OF: Jacob Melton/Zach Cole/Zach Dezenzo, Kenedy Corona, Colin Barber, Pedro Leon. At least one of those first 3 guys will be on the big league roster, and trades could deplete this unit, but as it stands it is a well above average AAA OF. AA: C: Walker Janek, Will Bush, Garret Guillemette, John Garcia. This is a fantastic group of catchers, with Janek, Bush, and Guillemette all having potential to be everyday big leaguers. I’m assuming Janek will start next season in Corpus since he’s slated to play in the fall league. IF: Jeron Williams, Pascanel Ferreras, Trevor Austin, Anthony Sherwin, Narbe Cruz. Williams is the only one of those players I think has any real chance to be a meaningful major league player. Ferreras and Austin are fine organizational depth. Sherwin and Cruz are release candidates. Alejandro Nunez may be in Corpus next season and he’s an interesting 4th tier prospect, but they will likely need to bring in an Edwin Diaz type of an offseason trade doesn’t address this gaping hole in the system. OF: Joseph Sullivan, Luis Baez, Lucas Spence. Tyler Whitaker might get a spot here if they want to give him a sink or swim period before cutting bait, but if they don’t move Yamal Encarnacion up then they’ll need to bring back Orlando Martinez or another player from outside for depth. The 3 main players are really good prospects, so as long as none of them gets hurt this is a fine unit. High A: C: Jancel Villarroel, John Schiavone, Kedaur Trujillo, Fernando Caldera. Villarroel is a good prospect and the depth is fine. Nothing special but perfectly average and great considering how good the C depth is in AA. IF: Caden Powell, Nick Monistere, Kyle Walker, Hector Salas, Max Holy, Drew Vogel, Justin Trimble, Reylin Perez. I’m making some educated guesses on the college draftees being moved up, but however it shakes out the infield depth in the lower levels is loads better than in the upper levels. OF: Ethan Frey, Kenni Gomez, Cesar Hernandez, Drew Brutcher, Mason Lytle. Frey could be an elite prospect, and Gomez and Hernandez are both more than worth giving everyday playing to in high A. This is a strong group. A: C: Yosweld Vasquez, Carlos Cauro, Andrews Sosa, Arturo Flores. Not a group with much pedigree but all of them performed well enough to deserve opportunities in full season back. Considering the C depth in AA and in the complexes, this is an adequate group. IF: Alberto Hernandez, German Ramirez, Camilo Diaz, Zach Daudet, Wilton Lara, Brandon Forrester, Waner Luciano. The leash is getting shorter for those 3 big bonus international guys, but there’s fine depth here and they are mostly keeping it warm for the higher rated guys slated for the FCL. OF: Anthony Huezo, Nehomar Ochoa, Justin Thomas, Chase Call. Solid group and it’ll get reinforced from the FCL in pretty short order. Huezo and Ochoa are big ceiling guys. FCL: C: Jase Mitchell, August Cuneo, TBD IF: Xavier Neyens, Sandro Pereira, Landon Arroyos, Darwin De Leon, TBD OF: Ethan Wagner, DJ Newman, Elijah Farley, Luis Rives, Karniel Pratt, Roiner Quintana, Juan Sierra, Josh Wakefield, TBD It remains to be seen which guys will mae it over from the DSL but either way this FCL roster is very good for an offseason group. Mitchell and Neyens are potentially elite prospects.
Frankly , lunhow didn't hit often at all . 2013 was appell and Nolan Fontana? 2014 was the brady aiken whiff Helps that you got Correa and mccullers in 2012 and bregman and Tucker in 2015 . At least the book isn't closed on 22 and 23 yet As great as lunhow was , good ol ed wade does deserve some credit for convincing drayton to rebuild and moving some pieces and getting some good talent in the system . Hell , jon singleton still was around this year Crane deserves.so much credit for how he's allowed the GMs to operate and putting up resources. We have to hope he's gonna stick around . I really believe in brown as a talent evaluator and think he can be the guy to make our playoff missing streak only 1 year or 2 years and then Sheppard us into another good streak of contention. It's statistically unlikely we are as good as we were from 2017-2022 for a long time . But I even remember the years of 04-05 being nice . Our division is on the upswing , Seattle especially has loads of talent and looks primed to be a good team. Tex spends a good amount of money too . I can't even remember another team in our division ourside of Oakland . Who's that 5th team ? Just focus on us baby . Keep adding talent .
