Thanks for this. If the Astros are convinced that 27 is going to be lost, might it change their trade posture for some of these players?
Given the looming lockout, doesn't that essentially give us next year to go all in? I think I heard we were under the CBT this past season so it would reset for us this year? Is there a reason we'd trade for a SP vs signing a free agent? I don't believe we have many assets to trade. If we have to pay down walkers salary I'd rather keep him. Just remove him from the heart of the lineup.
Yes, absolutely. That’s a really hard thing to predict though. I would suspect Houston would be a lot less anxious to trade Walker if they thought they were only gonna have to pay him one more year instead of two. The prospect of a lost 2027 really kind of works against them trading away any current big leaguers and should have them leaning more toward trading away older prospects who would be in their prime in 2027, to me that’s guys like Melton, Cole, Dezenzo, Blubaugh, and Mathews.
Are you convinced Paredes can play second? If not I don’t see any way to keep Walker. Paredes and Pena were the 2 best players this year and both are still in their prime. No way I trade either one.
I am pretty confident that Paredes can play 2B. Even if he’s really bad there, they’ll be able to find enough playing time for everybody, even if everybody stays healthy. I do think Pena just had his career season, so if I were GM I would definitely be gauging his trade value. Let’s assume Paredes is a terrible 2B defender: 1B Walker 140, Paredes 20 2B Altuve 60, Paredes 20 (Dubon/Urias 80) SS Pena 150, Correa 10 3B Correa 120, Paredes 40 LF Altuve 40, Alvarez 70 (Cole/Sanchez/Melton 50) DH Alvarez 80, Paredes 60, Altuve 20 Games played: Walker 140, Altuve 120, Pena 150, Correa 130, Alvarez 150, Paredes 140
I think the hole in your argument is Alvarez playing the field 70 games. The Astros clearly don’t like that idea and I think it is an unnecessary risk. His bat is everything to this team and any risk is too much risk. I know it was his hand and ankle this year, but his knees have also been a problem. I don’t hate Walker, but I think we could use the savings in moving him if it doesn’t cost too much in prospect cost. Paredes would be a lock at 1b for the remainder of his time with us (which I hope is extended). I really want Cole in the outfield to start the season. Even if he strikes out a lot (so does Walker) his power , defense, and speed is a game changer. He has a good eye at the plate. If Paredes is good at 2b, then keep Walker and trade Myers. Altuve in LF, Cole or Smith to CF and Smith or Cole in RF. Dizenzo can be the 4th OF. There are lots of possibilities if you trade Walker or Myers.
I have repeated this a bunch but I just want Houston to follow the market. If other teams want Walker, then make that move. If they want to overpay for Pena, make the move. I don’t see any teams overpaying for Paredes or Alvarez but if it happens I’d be fine with it. I would be perfectly content with Houston standing pat outside of adding an innings eater free agent MoR SP and a few NRI’s to fortify the competition in the rotation, bullpen, and backup C. I don’t expect that; I expect it to be an exciting offseason and for Houston to make 3-4 really significant moves. The only thing I really really don’t want is for Houston to sign a QO free agent or trade away prospects from the lower levels of their system.
I agree. The Astros do not have the assets (especially that they are willing to part with, like Cam Smith) to land a SP1 with multiple years of control. If the Astros did trade 3 of their best minor league pitching prospects (none f which are top 100 prospects) plus Cam Smith, they might land a "average" SP1 with 2+ years of control. That SP1 would become the Astros SP2, with the huge downside risk of a pitching injury which would also wipe clean the Astros best pitching minor league pitching talent. The Astros are no longer in the boat, where they can give up high value prospects to land an established MLB star that would get them a first round playoff bye and a with reasonable at making+winning the World Series. And if the Astros are willing to spend the mega-bucks to sign a FA SP1, they should go ahead and sign Framber, which I think there is almost a 0% chance of them attempting.
Very good ideas. Kind of doubt the major move part in the offseason since that would be a little out of character, but we did miss the postseason
Well said. I just hope it's clear we can't count on returning pitching depth. And we trade for a SP2 and innings eater to fortify the rotation. I get the feeling Costanza will regress next season.
I disagree with this. Look at the JV trade as a guide. If they wanted to trade for a SP1 Say Alcantara from Miami. JV trade Rodgers/ SP that was highly touted but got hurt/Cameron Prposed Alcantara trade Matthews/Ullola/Janek That would get a deal done.
As long as Houston is counting on <200 ip TOTAL COMBINED from Arrighetti, Alexander, Gordon, McCullers, Wesneski, Blanco, and Walter, I think they’ll be fine. I’m fine with them banking on 300 ip combined from Brown and Javier. So that’s 500 ip. They need to add ~300 ip to their rotation, minus what they think they can get from Blubaugh, Ullola, Pecko, and Fleury early next season. But it is unquestionable that they need to add a ToR SP that they can bank on to give them 150 quality innings and start Game 2 of a playoff series. They very likely will need another reliable SP, but if they’re cash strapped I’m ok with that guy being an NRI they bring in to compete with Blubaugh and the other young/fragile arms. SP IP Prediction: Brown 160 TBD TOR SP 160 Javier 140 Blubaugh 130 Gordon 60 Pecko 60 Arrighetti 40 Alexander 40 McCullers 20 Blanco 20 Wesneski 20 Ullola 20 OTHERS 20
Does this figure match what' we may have available? If so I guess the next thing would be to see where we spend what we have. I'm fine with moving on from Dubon as he's going to get expensive. Urias may have been hedging our bets.
Detroit took a less than FMV deal, to do right by JV. The Gerrit Cole trade with the Pirates is a much better example. The Astros sent the following to the Pirates: RHP Joe Musgrove RHP Michael Feliz 3B Colin Moran OF Jason Martin The perceived value at the time of the trade was that Musgrove was a ToR starter Feliz was a 7/8 inning bullpen arm Moran was a league average 3B Jason Martin was a lottery ticket 2025 comparables AJ Blubaugh (not as good as Musgrove) Miguel Ullola (better than Feliz, but a bullpen arm) Walker Janek (not as good as Moran) Jacob Melton (better than Martin, but still a lottery ticket) For those who want to quibble with the 2025 comparison, you can GFY. My comparison is in the ballpark. And none of these guys are consensus top 100 prospects. The question becomes ... would you give up that much prospect talent, for two years of a good SP2? would a good SP2 be a difference maker that leads to the World Series?
I would give up those 4 prospects for 2 years of prime/enhanced Gerrit Cole in a heartbeat. And I know you preemptively told me to go **** myself, but I’ll quibble and say Martin is more like Kenedy Corona and Moran is more like Dezenzo.
What I got right was the ballpark ... which was my main point. Or we can talked for days about the comparable values of Dezenzo, Cole, Melton, Sullivan, Spence, Powell, Gomez, Corona etc. The value of those prospects is that one or more could be above average starters for the next four years, which addresses the 2028 and 2029 years than the the 2026 and 2027 years. And we did not know when we got Gerrit Cole that he would be anymore than an average SP1, if that. He was trending in all of the wrong ways. I am unsure whether a pitcher like pre-Astros Gerrit Cole would get the Astros to the World Series in 2026 or 2027. The starting pitching would be partially addressed but the rest of the pitching staff and the bats may still be huge issues
Remember that Cole was not a guarantee which is why he was available. He became a 300m guarantee because of our Strom, Murphy, and Miller.
I have no way of knowing. Bochy gave a few away also. Who knows what happens. Maybe we win three more with him but **** goes sideways somewhere else?? How we got to 87 with what we had I have no idea. Managers affect over 162 on average is 2-4 wins or losses.
I would trust a 3 time WS winning manager to get one more win over what Espada did. I'm guessing 90-92 wins with a Bochy type manager would've been possible.
