This would absolutely be an all-in for 26 and 27, correct? Pretty much gutting the minor leagues. How does a lockout or strike effect contracts. Say all of 27 is lost. Do the 27 contracts get moved to 28 automatically?
I am of the opinion that by the end of next season Houston will have one of the 10 best farm systems in baseball when only evaluating High A and below. They picked 2 very high ceiling HS prospects in the 2025 draft. They have an extremely good crop in the DSL, including a potentially elite elite prospect in Kevin Alvarez. They have a lot of very high ceiling 18-21 year old prospects. And they should add 5-6 of the top 100 prospects available in the next draft. So while the trade I proposed will put a huge dent in the upper levels of their farm, their big league roster should be good enough to not need too many reinforcements before those younger prospects start to bubble up; the only pending free agents from that hypothetical roster would be Gray, Alcantara, Abreu, and Okert. Everyone else is controlled thru at least 2027.
You are much more knowledgeable than me on this, but doesn’t that make this an all in move through 27 like I said. The lower level guys won’t be ready for a significant role in 28, will they? I guess the idea that 27 will be a lost year, gets us through 28 if all the contracts are extended by the lockout, thus my question. Seems like it would mean a re-build in 28 or 29. I don’t want us to ever have a 2-3 year re-build again. That was Luhow’s philosophy in St. Louis and Houston and I still think we can still do it. Giving up all that pitching for 2 years of Gray and Alacantara is very scary to me. I’d rather go for one of the two pitchers and try and sign a FA innings eater and let Altuve play 2b for a year than take the chance of trading all those prospects for 2 pitchers and another position player, especially since we have no place to put Paredes without a Walker trade.
Yeah it definitely puts 2028 at risk of being a reset/rebuild year. But the 2028 roster would still feature Brown, Alvarez, Correa, Diaz, Altuve, Hader, all the hurt SP (Blanco, Walter, Arrighetti, Wesneski), all the young OF (Cole, Smith, Dezenzo), some decent RP (Sousa, King), and anything the farm produces from 2026-2027. At that point the front office would have to decide whether to trade away some of the young prospects bubbling up to fortify that roster or to lean into the rebuild by maybe trading away Brown, Alvarez, and Diaz. The current bottom half of the farm (and the 2026 draft) will very likely start producing good players by the end of 2028 (unless they trade them away in 2026-2027).
I love your philosophy and they still have young pitching like Brito, Forcuzzi, Dombrowski etc... to see them through until 2027-2028. I'm all on board with these trades.
I am putting a LOT of weight on the 2026 draft and Dana Brown’s scouting. I will be crushed if Hunter Brown doesn’t finish top 3 in the CY or Framber accepts the QO or Houston signs another QO FA. But if none of those things happen Houston very well could add 6 of their top 10 org prospects on that one day, a huge inflection point.
The reason I'm on board with your plan is the only guys I really dont want to lose are Pecko, Mayer and Sullivan. I'm not as high on Matthews and Melton as most and I dont think Ullola will ever be able to figure out his control issues. We've seen a lot of guys like Ulolla come through the system and most of them never figure it out. (The pitcher traded to the Yankees I cant remember his name had great stuff and is the likely outcome for Ullola IMHO) Losing Pecko would really hurt. But to get Donovan/Alcantara/Gray would definitely make this a championship contender and I'm all about winning another championship in the next 2 years. They would still have pitching prospects that I'm almost as high on as Pecko and Ullola Blubaugh/Forcuzzi/Brito/Santa/Treadwell/Fleury/Nezuh/Dombrowski/and Hicks who I really like what I've read about him and despite being injured this yr he's got a really high upside. Position players would be thinner but I'm thinking in a couple of yrs Frey will be ready very soon. then in a couple of yrs the guys like Janek/Powell/Bush/Baez/Gomez etc... should be ready in a couple of yrs. What Idont know and would like some feedback on, is how close are guys like Alvarez/Neyens/Huezo/walker and especially 2 underrated guys IMHO Ochoa/Spence are away from being away from being ready for MLB. I know that all of these guys wont make it but if 1/3 of them do then that sets the MLB roster up very well for 2028 and beyond. I might also look to trade some of these guys for middle infield help. That's the only real weakness in this system IMHO. If you made the trades you suggested and hit on 5-7 players out of the next 2 drafts you would have a very solid farm system and that doesn't even count the international signings. The Stros farm system is still very underrated and having young guys like Cole/Smith/Dezenzo that are MLB ready for the next 5-6 years gives the guys I listed time to develop. In short your proposed trade wouldn't kill the farm system and I dont even think it would be an all in move although there would be some risk involved.
As much as Framber annoyed me the last two months, I wouldn’t be upset at having him back if he’s taking the QO. The chance that pick turns out to be a high impact player is relatively low.
I should remember from last year, but, assuming Framber leaves after a QO, is our comp pick impacted by the Astros going over the CBT?
Yes. It remains to be seen whether they actually went over, I have seen conflicting reports. The Correa trade was complicated from that perspective. If they went over they get a 4th round pick instead of a 2nd round pick.
I will be angry is the Astros sign another QO free agent or Brown doesn't finish in the top 3. However, if Valdez accepts the QO, I would be very happy about it.
If I wanted to play an overpriced old guy at second there is no way I would go out and get Donovan. We have a better old guy already on the roster to play at second base.
Pena is signed through 27 and there is no one we could trade for that could come close to replacing him. He is our most valuable player and an obvious candidate to extend, why would you even consider trading him. There are plenty of obvious trades that I would do first. How about one of our two third basemen? Neither of them will be worth half as much at any other position. Or a few of our proven outfielders. We have several promising youngsters that can replace them handily. There are a few prospects at AA & AAA who will never be Astros that some team would be delighted to give value for. Last spring I suggested trading Alvarez and I recall catching hell for it from you in particular. His value was at it's peak and he was worthless for almost the entire year. That might have been a good idea. Even now that his value is much lower he would still return far, far more than he will produce this season. If we are going to do a trade lets do one that benefits the Astros.
After re reading this it comes across as far to harsh to say to a friend. It is late and I am to tired to rewrite it. Please accept my apologies.
Fangraphs updated their top 100 prospects list today. Looking at that list and the teams that might be in the market for a SS this offseason, here is the list of prospects I would expect to headline a potential Pena trade: SS Luis Pena MIL (#29) C Josue Briceno DET (#31) SS Arjun Nimmala TOR (#37) RF Zyhir Hope LAD (#45) SS Cooper Pratt MIL (#56) Detroit has a stacked top of their farm system. It would not surprise me if they made at least one big trade this offseason. Fangraphs isn’t high on Bryce Rainer but I wouldn’t mind if he was the headliner on a Pena trade that included 2-3 other meaningful pieces.
