I could see us winning the West by 10 games next year if we have a good off-season. This season was a fluke. Oh, and re-sign Framber while his stock is down.
Espada is gone, I think a lot of the failure was injury related and beyond his control. However this team 100% looked like it opened a big ol can of quit down the stretch and you can't have that. Offensively, I wonder what the cost of dumping Walker will be. I want no part of letting Paredes go, and we need him at 1B. I would be OK if they otherwise brought back the same personnel and went young in the outfield with Smith(who I still think is gonna be awesome despite the terrible second half) and Cole getting the early season reps. Altuve can split his reps the same way as this season. Kind of a half in/half out rebuild. Framber is the big pitching question mark. Did he tank his value enough to become affordable? If so I would still love to bring him back, warts and all. I don't know WTF happened with pitchers all crashing a burning all of the sudden, but we need to add an innings eater of some kind to be safe, 2 if Framber walks. A lot of upside still with Brown, Javier,Blubaugh, and Arrighetti, but also a lot of downside with those last 3. As much of a disaster as this season felt like, I could easily see this same core winning 95 games and being back in the mix for a chip next season.
Giants fired Bob Melvin. Haven't really looked him up to see what kind of manager he is, but he has a resume
Since 2015, the Astros (and Dodgers) have played an extra 105 games. Most in MLB. Next most are the Yankees at 59. Those do add up and it seems this was the year it hit them. Having an extra month of offseason...not having to cut corners for injured players to get back for playoff series...fewer stressful innings on arms...all it it adds up.
First thing Crane should do is do a full internal review of the medical team, the trainers, and the strength and conditioning teams from both the Triple A and pro teams. While it is true that this was a much older team than prior years, and the number of injuries could be aberration. It would be better to do this assessment to hopefully prevent it perpetuating in the future.
1. Find another starter 2. Pray McCullers finds another 2-3 mph over the winter and can consistently throw strikes 3. Look for a new manager 4. Find an outfield bat
I would be surprised if they add another quality outfield bat unless they trade someone like Meyers or Cole or Smith. As it is - they potentially have too many outfielders unless they move Altuve to 2nd base. I think they really are hoping to find two pitchers - with at least one of them being a durable innings eater. I wouldn't be shocked if the Astros check in on Jordan Montgomery. Guys that would fill a need in free agency and not be too cripplingly expensive include: Jordan Montgomery. Bassett, Verlander, Giolitto, Gallen, Eflin, Bieber, Kelly, Cortes, Littell and Hendricks. I think based on what I have heard for months is that they would like to trade for a really good starter and then sign another starter on the market .... depending on how the trade front goes.
Off-season wish list... Extend Pena Make QO to Framber, take it or leave it Explore trading Walker and move Paredes to 1B Explore trading Yordan for Tucker type haul Sign at minimum one middle of the rotation inning eater Clean house on hitting coaches, 3B coach, all medical and training staff Non-tender Chas, Garcia, Rodgers, and maybe Sanchez Fire Espada IF you already have a guy you want that is available. Don't fire him then try to figure out who we go to next. Fire Brown IF you can bring back Luhnow, or at minimum a guy formerly from the Luhnow tree. Some of these are more realistic than others. It's a "wish list" for a reason
A Qualifying Offer might be enough to keep him unsigned before the start of the season, similar to what happened to Keuchel. It could be a negotiation tactic to offer a modest deal for a few years or he gets the QO. Remind him that any team that has interest is going to want details of what happened between him and Salazar.
I like Dana...that's why I would only dismiss him for a Luhnow guy, preferably Luhnow himself (eff the MLB and their strong arming). His trade deadline acquisitions have been a mixed bag. Sanchez was awful, Urias was meh, Correa was a great pickup but Carlos basically orchestrated that one himself. Kikuchi was a pleasant surprise last season. As far as drafting, we'll see how Matthews turns out, but for being his prized first round guy, I will need to see a lot from him next season. He nailed the Tucker trade. He is also great at finding middle relief guys on the cheap and I like his philosophy in that regard.
My dream offseason (I think): Out: Yordan, Walker & Melton, Meyers, Framber, Chas, Dubon, Trammell, LMJ + Matthews (90M in 2025 dollars out). Rationale- as a barely top 100 player Matthews has 15-20M in historical surplus value. LMJ has 1 year 18M left. Maybe he can be rehabbed. Christin Walker's contract is probably about 10M upside down. That's about how much Surplus value Melton has. In: Alonzo (3/120 or 8/200), Sale (3/100) or Cease (6/175), 6 top 100 prospects, Caratini (2/20), 1 comp pick. (70M or so in). Rationale: ALonzo hits bombs and plays everyday. He's not as good a hitter as Yordan, but he plays everyday. Sale is still filthy, Cease is filthy. Yordan and Meyers you use to rebuild the farm system. Caratini is perfect backup catcher/PH/part time DH and a good fit here. Resulting roster: Diaz, Caratini, Alonso, Paredes, Pena, Correa, Altuve, Cole, Smith, Sanchez, Dezenzo, Urias, Whitcomb. Tell Smith he needs to learn to play CF and pull the ball in the air and he can become a star. If not he can platoon with Cole in CF, Sanchez/Dezenzo platoon in RF and Altuve mixes in at LF some. No more 2b for altuve- that's paredes and Urias for the most part, very little LF for him- mostly DH. That's someting like 30 War on the position player side if they are all healthy. Pitching be fine if you add a Sale or Cease to what we already have. That team is under the Luxury tax and the farm is top 5 or 8 in baseball.
