2025 Season Astros General Discussion Thread

What did Walker hit from June onward?

I mean he hit 4 HRs in the last week......should we give him another shot?

DD

 

Post wasn't about trading Yordan.

 

Walkers OPS was close to 800 on the road and 600 at home. 19 homers on the road and only 8 at home.

Walker can still hit but apparently not that well at Daikin. I love his defense but would be tempted to trade him because of these splits.

Also - I would target players that hit well at Daiken like Isaac Paredas

 

Jeremy Pena doesn't really have a history of being injury prone. He has played 125 or more games every season in the big leagues. Yordan missed 100 games this season, but over the last 5 years he has played at least 115 games every year coming into this season. So I think there is risk with him, but I am not going to assume he will be hurt all of the time.

Carlos Correa had a nearly .800 OPS with the Astros this season, and was on pace for a 4 WAR season, in a down season. Last year he had like a 900 OPS. He isn't old, so I have no reason to believe he is in a general decline.

Altuve is getting older, and played too much this season - played hurt and wore down.

Yainer is fine for a catcher offensively. He needs to hold runners on better though. Walker is exactly 12 months older than when they signed him, they didn't and don't expect him to be around for 5 years. He has two years left and the last 50 games was pretty good.

Meyers is fine for a CFer, but he may be pushed out for Smith anyway.

Cole and Matthews don't have to be in the middle of the line up. They do strikeout a lot, but they also walk a lot and can do a lot of other things, like steal bases, strong arms, power and play challenging positions. I don't know if either will "make it", but both only need to hit 250 to be near all star level.

How long are you talking? I am talking about 2026.

Injuries are always a factor with every team, and the Astros are no exception. They need to do some heavy lifting with their rotation, and time will tell if that can happen - but I am pretty optimistic for 2026, I expect them to be better than 2025 even without Valdez.

 

I think the chances of Smith turning into an All Star are much higher than Cole turning into an All Star. Cole was awesome in a tiny sample here at the end. But Smith was also great in a small sample, it was after the sample got larger that he really started to struggle. Cole certainly has a very high ceiling

I'm on board with those who want our hitting coaches gone. Maybe our offensive problems this year were not their fault, but they certainly didn't find a solution.

 

I know it's pie in the sky, but I wish we would mend fences with Luhnow and let him blow it all up and build up from scratch again.

 

On the hitting side, there is an open question as to whether Paredes can play some 2B. If not, perhaps we have positional redundancy that requires dealing Walker.

But in terms of Games Played capability, there is no log jam. Let’s assume Paredes can play a serviceable 2B and cover around half the games there. We have a bunch of older players that won’t play anywhere near 162.

If we assume they have healthy years — a significant if - this is how I see games played.

Correa - 140 games, almost all at 3B
Altuve - 130-140 games. 60 at 2B, 55 at DH, 20 in LF. He is in the field about every other day, but gets more days off for maintenance. Altuve’s health is less important than Yordan.
Walker - 150 games at 1B
Paredes - 140 games across 2B, 3B 1B and DH. I think Paredes can pick up 30-35 games at 1B and 3B, 80 at 2B, 20-25 at DH.
Pena 150-155 games at SS
Yordan - 140 games. Let’s say 80 at DH, 60 in LF about every 3rd day.
(Urias is my lower cost super utility IF and late inning defensive sub and starts 20 games at 2B. I jettison Dubie, spend his arbitration salary on the pitching side, and open up OF slots for our “toolsy” kids.)

Those games played projections would reflect a good healthy season for everyone. A meaningful injury to this group pushes up the games played for the others to levels that are beyond ideal … like Altuve playing 155 games or so this year.

****

There is an entirely separate question of whether we can/should move Walker and use his salary for pitching, or deal Pena for a needed playoff caliber SP2.

My point is that we actually need all these players to fill up 162 games played at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and LF with competent hitters. Until I put pen to paper and looked up the Games Played history of these players, I didn’t realize the number of games played they would produce in a healthy season.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/...-miss-mlb-playoffs-for-first-time-since-2016/

According to Baseball Prospectus' database, no team lost more projected Wins Above Replacement to the injured list than the Astros (nearly 13). Only one other club (the Baltimore Orioles) cleared even 12 WAR. Furthermore, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers were the two teams that lost more than 2,000 individual player games to the shelf. ​

 

I might be wrong but i think the core is here for a great team next year.nice mix of vets and youngsters. Cam will get better now that he got his feet wet. Just need a TOR starting pitcher and for some folks to use the offseason to heal. Please, no one play in the WBC!!!

 

I know it wasn’t the World Series, but I really enjoyed this:



Altuve’s ALCS winning home run in 2019.

 

I don’t understand the optimism regarding cam smith.

He had a good start and then pitchers adjusted and he was legitimately bad. He had no time in AAA so isn’t the great likelihood that he starts next year in AAA?

I think he has really good tools - bat speed, running speed, good arm. He showed good strike zone command early on, but that seemed to fade. His batted ball profile was pretty bad no? I haven’t checked the stats but he seemed to be the king of ground balls. And most of his hits were oppo singles.

With his high draft status and tools, I can see why people might think he will eventually be good. But I’m just having a hard time seeing that happening next year, certainly not early next year.

I definitely would not pencil him in for a starting role in the OF. I would pencil him in at AAA

 

For me:

 

He's twenty-two years old, played 32 games in the minors, and had never played in over 100 games in a season before this year. For him, there is a benefit to not making the postseason... he gets an extra few weeks to work on some adjustments that would have been an unreasonable ask for such a young player in the middle of the season. He is, at a minimum, worthy of a platoon spot next season.

 

There is a lot that goes into projecting Cam Smith.

The first thing I would note is that he had roughly an 800 OPS at the break.

He played almost no minor league baseball in his career - he was a late bloomer in college as well.

So - going into this season he had never played more than like 70 games in a season.

This year he played, with spring training like 165 games - and looked to wear out as the season went on, which is to be expected when you are playing over twice as much as ever before.

I also know that he had some issues traveling - he missed his family and his routine. His family went with him some but not all the time on the road. If you look at the numbers, he was far better at home, with an OPS of around .800.

So - it is possible he struggles next season, but I would take the under on that. He really only needs a 750 OPS to be a 5 WAR player with his glove anyway. The power is coming, you can tell watching him.

I expect him to be possibly the starting CFer next year, or at least a starting corner outfielder.

Zach Cole is far more of a wildcard to me because the man gives away 40% of his plate appearances, and yet somehow has be very successful in AA/AAA/AL this season. Let's see what he does - but he is another one, like Brice and Melton and Smith, that has such a good glove and runs the bases well, and has pop - that he doesn't have to hit 270 to be a very good player.

 

The Cam Smith to CF talk is interesting. Putting Jake Meyers aside, my first blush ranking of defensive capabilities as a CF would have gone Melton then Cole then Smith. Especially if the season seemed to wear on Cam -- I'd think keeping him in a corner would be better for his bat.

 

It could go several ways - Melton and Cole have the speed for CF. Melton takes odd routes and Cole doesn't position himself well. Smith on the other hand showed a strong natural aptitude for reading the ball of the bat - and Brown at the break last year wanted Smith playing CF this Winter and Spring. Would he be full time out there? IDK - and it is hard to say how much of a burden playing CF would be for Smith.

I know that Brown with the Blue Jays said that his ideal outfield had three guys that could play CF. He pointed to the Reds and Cardinals outfield from many years ago.

I expect a better and fresher Smith next year - but we will see.

 

Melton was absolutely horrible at the plate. I see no reason to be optimistic that he will be ready to hit major league pitching enough to make the opening day roster. Dizenzo should be well ahead in the pecking order. Myers is a shoe in to start in cf if not traded