I wanted to like this post until you started talking up Paredes as a 2B. If he does a serious offseason rebuilding of his body - lose 15 lbs, get quicker - it's a maybe. But the Paredes we saw at 3B this year would be an absolute disaster at 2B It will be a very interesting offseason. Make-or-break kind of thing.
Out: Jeremy Pena, Jesus Sanchez, Ramon Urias, Chas McCormick, Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, Garcia, Hernandez, McCullers, Ort, Rooney, Trammell, prospects In: Brendan Donovan, Merrill Kelly, Drew Rasmussen, Hunter Harvey, prospects Opening Day Roster: 2B Donovan 3B Paredes DH Alvarez SS Correa LF Altuve C Diaz 1B Walker RF Smith CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Dezenzo, Cole SP: Brown, Kelly, Rasmussen, Javier, Alexander, Blubaugh RP: Hader, Abreu, Harvey, Sousa, King, Okert, France Essentially trading Pena, Matthews, and Melton for Donovan and Rasmussen and signing Kelly and Harvey in free agency sounds like a good offseason to me. That roster looks stacked.
Well they tried and failed to sign him long term. He is going to be coming off the best season of his career and his value will be the highest. The market for shortstops in free agency is bad. I think that the Astros will only move him for a king's ransom, but I think that they may get it. It would be franchise altering, but there is a lot of upside to moving him for the right package. I think analyzing pitching is harder now than ever before because of the injuries and because the pitchers have access to so much information that sometimes pitchers you think you can fix have already tried something similar and failed. While it is true the Astros need a "co-ace", I think there is really a bigger need for guys that will give you 200 innings and staff healthy, especially if they anticipate the offense to be better. I think they probably need two pitchers - one that can match up in the playoffs as a #2 starter and another that goes 7 innings a start and gives up 2-4 runs a start fairly consistently. That takes the toll off the pen some. The other for the Astros is that they have to decide if they are only going to sign guys to 2–3-year deals. If that is the case, they are going to have to trade for one of the pitchers they need in the rotation - and then ideally get another one that is older, like Kelly or Gallen on a 2–3-year deal. I look at it like this with Brown - his drafts so far have been promising. His trade of Tucker was very good; the talent we got is very high. He also has shown he is exceptional at judging players near the big-league level. That is why I would be okay with him trading guys like Pena and/or Meyers or Diaz. He is very good at those types of deals. My concern with Brown is that he wanted Espada, and the quality of coaching at the big league level has gone down since Brown took over. I know a big reason he wanted Espada is that he gets along with everyone - but it hasn't worked well. Unfortunately Brown again this off season won't have much margin for error at all.
My gut reaction to playing second for the last few years has been "Oh God no". However, I will say this - I will not write it off just because of the type of guy Paredes is. He is a very bright guy, very focused and works extremely hard and baseball is his love. He wasn't supposed to comeback this season and he did -- he said he would and the staff said it wasn't happening, and it did. When he was in the Detroit system scouts were saying he wouldn't be able to play 3rd at the big league level, and he has-- his body isn't great, but he has gotten better as a player every single season and is only 26 years old. If Paredes thinks he can play 2nd, I would give him a shot -- he positions himself exceptionally well and has a history of exceeding expectations. He has a lot of value at any position, but if he can play second, he is an elite bat.
I guess one of the questions is would he be worst than Altuve. Cole should start the season in LF which means Altuve will have to play 2b. All this is under the assumption that we don’t move Alvarez, Pena, or Walker. Moving Walker makes room for Paredes at first, which I still think is our best option. Move Altuve back to second (yuk). Then assuming no trades for position players other than Walker you have an everyday lineup of: Pena SS Alvarez DH Paredes 1b Altuve 2b Correa 3b Diaz C Smith RF Cole LF Myers CF
Trade Pena for a Tucker-like haul and have Paredes play 3B and Correa at SS vs. Trade Walker which won't bring in a haul but will shed salary, and play Paredes at 1B? Hmm
I’d rather trade Alvarez, but I know I’m in the minority. Both of them are still in their prime and on reasonable contracts for 2 more years, so my preference is not to move either one, but if Crane insists then it’s Alvarez for me since he can’t seem to stay on the field.
A lot of potential moving parts. 3 months ago Brown was talking about Cam Smith spending the winter and spring practicing in center field. So it is possible that Meyers is somewhere else - with Cam in CF and Cole in RF (assuming they believe in Cole) and Altuve in LF ---- or maybe they have Altuve back at second. A lot of these moves are going to be predicated on what is the best deal for the Astros. They may get an offer for Meyers they really like - so they then slide Cam over etc.
2 big things Houston need to get right: Deciding which power/speed OF (Cole, Smith, Melton, Dezenzo, Matthews, Whitcomb, Leon) to reserve a spot for. Guessing wrong there could mean trading away a superstar to give time to a replacement level player. Deciding which veterans to keep and how to align them defensively. Guessing wrong could mean selling low on valuable players to keep guys poised for a swift decline while contributing to a defensive near the bottom of the league.
Completely agree ---- I "think" that Cam Smith is going to be a near all star for a long time, but I do not know. I am less confident in Cole, but he doesn't swing outside the strike zone and he has power that would make anyone else on the Astros blush. Cole and Matthews and Melton all have the potential to add a new dimension to the organization - they all can steal bases, and in large quantities. That did not matter much 5 years ago, but it does now.... Melton and Matthews will steal 50 bags each if they get on base enough.
Yup - and there is also the possibility that Crane quietly goes on one of his golf outings in Florida and comes back a week or two later, calls Dana Brown and tells him to fire X, trade Y or that he has decided he wants to sign Z and pay the tax. He usually goes on trips, meets with various successful people - comes back and makes decisions for the next season. Let's see if he is playing golf with Verlander or some old head like Goose Gossage.
