This is missing that if Detroit wins 3 (meaning Boston loses 3) and the Astros win all their remaining games they pass Boston. The worst case scenario is Detroit goes 2-1 against Boston. That means the Astros can only pass Cleveland.
Fangraphs has the Astros at 28%, which I don’t understand. There’s at least a 33% chance they eliminate themselves. So take the 66% chance they win at least 2 of 3, and reduce that by the odds the other 3 teams don’t lose enough. I would say it’s somewhere between 5% and 10%, probably closer to 5% when you consider that the Rangers are not going to try very hard to help the Astros by beating the Guardians.
The Astros will be more heavily favored against the A’s than Cleveland against Texas in each individual game. Boston and Detroit are also playing each other which is the biggest factor. There are scenarios where the Astros can get in only winning 2 of 3 games. So none of the individual chances they pass any one given team are all that high, there are three teams they could and those add up to the ~28%. If the Astros lose or Cleveland wins today those odds will shrink dramatically.
The one saving grace is I think Boston is going to compete to win all three games even if they clinch tonight. I don’t think Cora and Bregman would let them lay down. Boston, Texas and Astros wins tonight would be make things very interesting.
Tigers will either complete the insane choke job, or what's more likely is that they lose the series to the Red Sox 2-1 but the Astros drop the ball (again) and don't take care of business at LA.
No matter what others do, this team is going nowhere. They have no consistent hitting, and their manager is over his head. The season has been over for a good while. Let the rebuild begin. Start by firing the employee who recommended the Christian Walker acquisition.
Let's go over the psychology of this Boston Detroit series. If Boston wins, they are in, nothing to play for in the last 2 games. If Detroit wins the next 2 games, they are still fighting to win the division as long as Cleveland hasn't lost their first 2 games (highly unlikely). But can we trust Detroit to win 3 games this weekend (essentially a rhetorical question). Still think we are better off with Boston winning tonight. I think they can figure out a way to win 1 of the last 2 games of the series. Then there is Cleveland. Is there any chance they choke and lose 2 games this weekend? Maybe. If Detroit and Cleveland both lose tonight, then the Astros chances to get in with a sweep of the Angels goes north of 50%, maybe even as high as 70%.
