In order to get a a wildcard spot, Houston needs one of three things to happen in the final 6 games of the season. - Houston wins 1 more game than Cleveland wins this week - Houston wins 2 more games than Detroit wins this week - Houston wins 2 more games than Boston wins this week So for the next three nights, I'm going for Detroit and Toronto.
If it weren't for the Guardians playing the Tigers, we would pretty much be done. We start by projecting a 2-1 series win over the A's (somewhat likely). If the Guardians take 2 of 3 (likeliest scenario) then we are in a 3 way tie for the wildcard, with no tiebreaker over either team, but only needing to be better than either of those 2 teams over the weekend. In that scenario I would put our playoffs chances at 67%. If we sweep the A's our playoff chances are approaching 90%. If we lose 2 of 3 to the A's we are probably looking at about a 35% chance of getting in. Factoring in Boston you can up those percentages listed by about 5%. Crazy that we don't own a single tiebreaker.
It all comes down to needing the Astros to win 1 more game than Cleveland or 2 more games than Boston or Detroit. Therefore, Houston really needs to rack up as many wins as possible. Not having the tiebreakers is tough, and as you said, the only reason things become more likely at 4 wins for Houston is because Detroit plays both Cleveland and Boston. If everybody was playing different opponents this week, things would be looking much worse for the Astros playoff chances.
The simplest answer is Detroit to sweep the Guardians. Now even if Detroit scrapes out a 1-0 win today, how confident are you that Detroit wins either of the next 2 games. Cleveland sweeping much more likely than Detroit sweeping. I got it as Cleveland winning 2-1 tonight.
I think the fact Detroit has to play Boston means it very likely doesn’t matter who wins in their series against Cleveland.
This is how much the baseball gods hate us right now. The Tigers were up 2-0. Kwan for Cleveland bunts for a single. Then Martinez gets on with a sac bunt error. After a single by Ramirez brings Kwan home a Wild pitch scores Martinez to tie the game. Then Ramirez goes to third on a balk before scoring on a ground ball out. All of this off of Skubal. You can't make that crap up.
Cleveland is up 5-2 at the bottom of the 8th and the Red Sox are up 4-1 in the top of the 6th. Things aren't starting off in the Astros direction. They better start winning games if they want a spot at the playoffs.
I think we root for Cleveland to sweep. Then the Tigers have the Red Sox. I believe the Tigers are most likely to miss the playoffs as long as we go 3-3.
Given that Cleveland looks like they are continuing their hot streak and Detroit is now on a 7 game losing streak, hoping for Cleveland to sweep is probably the best right now. If Detroit ends up being the team Houston replaces in the playoffs, then they would need to go 1-5 this week if we go 3-3. Detroit going 1-5 vs Cleveland and Boston this week isn't all that unlikely given how bad they have been recently.
