Yes. Lost after 26. He was talking about a fall off from 26 to 27 so thought the context was clear. I ususally spell it out b/c you can see it listed as 26 free agent (as in- free agent after the 26 season) or 27 free agent (as in, free agent before the 27 season). **** gets confusing!
I expect you should shut your mouth and enjoy Ullola winning a cy young and Blubaugh being an all star
IF they trade Paredes and or Pena I would fully expect them to get big league pieces back that they like- ala the Kyle Tucker deal. Alvarez will be 30 so I wouldn't worry too much about him aging. Walker- yeah- I'm not sure we don't move off of him, but him Altuve and Hader should be a little to possibly a lot worse. However, Cam Smith should be much better if he's the dude I (and Dana) think he is going to be. Melton, Dezenzo, or Matthews could hit as an above average player. We have a farm system and FA time between now and then to develop, sign and trade, and we should have money to do all of those things if Crane spends to the max. I really see 27 being as good or better than 26 with 2028 potentially stepping off a cliff if they don't do a really good job of developing, but with enough talent in the org still in 28 that if they do a good job developing 4 or 5 guys to replace: Walker, Paredes, Pena, Javier & Garcia that they will be just fine. Keep in mind- they don't have to develop 1 for 1 replacements internally for them (that would be best but not necessary) as that's 80 or 90 million coming off the books (20 for Walker and 20 for Javier) my guess is 15-20 for Paredes and Pena each, and 6M or so for Garcia. So, you could sign a star level free agent (we won't but you could) plus a couple average type guys for whatever you don't develop between here and there. If not I'd trade everything not named Altuve and Correa (1 year of Yordon, Yainer, Brown, Hader should net you something like 6 top 100 type propsects plus some other pretty good dudes) and hope that the rebuild isn't particularly painful (which it shouldn't be). Either way I'm not worried about that.
I will give you this- you certainly have your own mind when it comes to prospects. I hear you talking up guys that I think suck all the time and poo poo'ing guys that I think are pretty good regularly.
I think it will be close. I don't expect everyone hurt to rebound completely. I also expect some things to go wrong that are unexpected, and the Astros are just too thin to patch them up. Might still win the division. The Astros saving grace has been the AL just doesn't have any great teams at the moment.
They need to Sign/Develop/Trade for a couple of aces and they will remain dominant. The lineup should be a very good lineup even if Altuve ages. Gotta get Altuve out of the top of the lineup though.
I think the AAA roster will be better/deeper than the last 2-3 years because of the light deadline and deep big league roster, which should potentially mitigate unexpected injuries/disintegrations. Matthews, Melton, Dezenzo, Leon, Corona, Whitcomb, and Price are all slated to be in AAA with another year of experience, and they’ll have some actual prospects (Barber, Cole, Palma) to fill out depth instead of mining the minor league free agent market for AAAA guys like Short and Guillorme and Hudson (although I suspect they’ll still need to bring in a AAAA SS if they don’t resign somebody like Edwin Diaz). And I think the same is true on the pitching side. Ullola, Fleury, Pecko, Gordon, and Dombroski are all a year older/closer and should make for better insurance than the last 2 seasons.
Just like with the Tucker trade, a trade of Paredes or Pena would likely decrease the number of expected 2027 wins even if it is a great trade. I do agree that there’s a lot that can/will change in the next 18 months, and that’s especially true with a roster that doesn’t have a lot of certainty; their good players are either old, injury-prone, or nearing free agency, and their best prospects all carry pretty significant bust risk. We might circle back to this post in a year and laugh, as Smith claims his MVP trophy, Dezenzo and Melton and Matthews all are polishing up 3+ win seasons, and the topic of Alvarez is more about his hall of fame trajectory than his decline.
That happens. One can look at this season as a great example of things that go right while a lot of things go wrong. Players don't typically get younger, though.
The dynamic has changed since he got hurt and they traded for Correa. I suspect they would still welcome an extension, but the terms would probably have to be pretty team friendly. Something like $70M/5yrs with some significant bonuses or a vesting 6th year sounds like it might work, but only if Paredes is really happy in Houston and is prioritizing securing his bag over a potentially much bigger payday. He will still be in his 20's if he reaches free agency so he's got a pretty high monetary ceiling if he does that as a guy putting up an 800+ OPS with adequate 3B defense. I've made this comment several times over the last few months, but Houston's position player depth gives them a lot of flexibility to follow where the market leads them. I suspect Dana Brown's order of operations this offseason will be: Discuss team-friendly extensions with Pena, Brown, Abreu, and Paredes. Survey the trade value of his players: Walker: if a team will take on 90%+ of his contract and give up an Org top 10 prospect, do it. Paredes: look for a deal similar to the Tucker trade. Paredes is not as good as Tucker but has an extra year of control. Pena: look for a deal slightly lesser to the Juan Soto trade from Washington: 2 MLB Top 50 prospects plus 1-2 MLB Top 100 prospects. Pena also has 2 years of control remaining. Meyers: if a team is willing to give up a prospect that would fit in Houston's org top 5, do it. Abreu: if a team is willing to give up 2 prospects that would fit in Houston's org top 10, do it. check the value of Urias, Sanchez, and Dubon. All 3 are valuable but if another team values them much higher, they can be replaced. Add a #2 SP. The trade market could be focused on Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Mackenzie Gore, Pablo Lopez, and Drew Rasmussen and the cost could center around some combo of Matthews, Melton, and Ullola. The free agent market features Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Zac Gallen, Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Merrill Kelly, German Marquez, Max Scherzer, Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez, and Brandon Woodruff; there's a lot of variance in value in that list, and Houston would likely have to clear payroll in order to sign most of those guys. Determine other needs: Is Salazar ready to be the backup C? If not, they'll need to go get somebody. I personally am high on Salazar and think he will be a good backup and refreshingly good on defense compared to Diaz and Caratini. What is the health/effectiveness of the starting pitching depth behind Hunter Brown (Arrighetti, Walter, Wesneski, Blanco, Garcia, Javier, McCullers)? If Javier doesn't shine the rest of this season and into the playoffs, Houston probably needs 2 SP this offseason instead of just one. They might also be heavily in the market for veterans willing to take a minor league deal for a good chance of eventually being added to the roster. Houston is compromised by having 4 40 man roster spots locked up by players who probably won't pitch before August 2026, if not until 2027. What is the health/effectiveness of the bullpen behind Hader and Abreu (King, Okert, Ort, Sousa)? I think they'll probably need to add a 7th inning guy, but the cost for that should just fit into the budget, whether it comes from the payroll via free agency or from the farm via trade. Way too early 2026 opening day roster prediction: SS Pena 1B Paredes DH Alvarez SS Correa LF Altuve RF Sanchez C Diaz 2B Urias CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Dezenzo, Smith Rotation: Brown, Alcantara, Kelly, Javier, Garcia, Alexander Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, King, Ort, Okert, McCullers, France IL: Arrighetti, Walter, Wesneski, Blanco DFA/Traded: Walker, Melton, Leon, Rooney, Hernandez, McCormick, Murray, Sousa, Trammell Free Agents: Valdez, De Los Santos, Kimbrel, Rodgers, Caratini Optioned: Blubaugh, Ullola, Gordon, Fleury, VanWey, Santa, Corona, Whitcomb, Cole, Matthews
I am anxious to see who gets thinned out. I have spent the best part of the last year expecting extensions of Paredes and Pena. I still think Pena is almost certain but Paredes has me concerned. I prefer him at third over Correa but am unsure how to resolve the log jam there. I think one of them needs to move to second, just not sure which one.
Thank you for not trading Ullola. Arrighetti missing basically all of 25 and 26 is beyond depressing to me.
