Building a baseball team is about having a vision for the team, elite coaching for mechanics, having an eye for talent, and the discipline to stick to the plan! The Astros seem to have good personnel in place, and they have been able to put their players to be in a position to succeed. I do mildly agree that if it looks like Peña will be seeking a 300+ million dollar long term contract, then trading him for a prospect haul would be worth looking into. As it is the Astros have a top tier payroll, so skewing payroll to just a few players is the recipe for self destruction. No different than when the rangers paid A-Rod all that money and he performed, but the rest of the team sucked. Good supporting players cost money, and rightfully they should earn a decent salary, as their careers are but a few years in length.
Sure. They trading Urias? Non tendering him? Paying Chas 5M next year in arb after sucking for 2 years and brining him back on top of that? It’s your thread, that doesn’t mean it’s likely
Doubtful Pena gets that money unless salaries continue to grow exponentially with the new CBA, upcoming expansion, and the owners swimming in $$$ with the new TV deals as well. Will be turning 31 his free agency season. Can look at past comps. And in that case, owners should spend more. Crane also starting to realize that Astros fans don’t just consume this team regardless… there is value to marketable players/stars/names. Merchandise sales and attendance going down the last 2 years were concerning findings long before the trade deadline to acquire such a name (and they’ve seen a bump in both since his re-acquisition).
Urias is UFA going into 2027 Here are my predicted salaries in 2027: * = set ( amount as of today ) for 2027. Keep in mind some players may excel which would change their arbitration money, accordingly. I'm putting down what I feel is current trajectory, imo. * 1st base: C Walker: $20m * SS: Carlos Correa: $20.5m * DH: Yordan: $26.83m * OF/2nd base: Altuve: $33m * Finisher: Hader: $19m 2nd base: Brice Matthews: $800T (two years from now Brice should be ready....younger and cheaper) 3rd base: Paredes: $15m LF: Jesus Sanchez: $4.8m RF: Cam Smith: $3.5m Yainer Diaz: $6.4m Dubon: $6.8m Utility DeZenzo: $1.0m Caratini: $7.5m (gets time at C, 1st base, & DH) Chas McCormick: $6.2m Pitchers Hunter Brown: $4.5m Blanco: $2.2m Arrighetti : $1.5m Wesneski: $1.5m Brandon Walter: $800T Jason Alexander: $800T = $182.63 Astros used $26.9m on relief pitching ( Hader making $19m of it ) remainder of $7.9m $182.63 + 10m (relief money rounded up to 10m) = $192.63 [ Pecko, Ullola, Blubaugh] I can see the Astros re-signing both Framber and Cristian Javier now. Javier: $20m / yr Framber: get his $210m over 8 yrs (Max Fried deal) = $27.25 per season Grand Total = $239.88 m team salary with MLB luxury tax destined to be over $240+million by 2027. Unfortunately Pena with his agent will probably be pushing for $30mil per yr doesn't work for me. But you do you
Many are suspecting Astros focus on pitchers spin rate might be placing excessive stress on the pitchers arms.....thus creating all the injuries. I like the coaches and until it's proven, I think I will just keep a bunch of pitchers on staff. I have Pecko, Ullola, and Blabaugh joining the team by 2027. Long relief to begin with. Maybe starting soon after. Just my preference.
Blubaugh will probably be starting next year. He may be in the bullpen this year if he can show off before the playoffs. I think Ullola may get some major league time next year, but probably just a guest appearance or two. They want both to be starters. Framber’s gone in all likelihood. Brown and Javier are the only slam dunks next year. If they don’t go for a FA before the season, I think it starts with Brown, Javier, Arrighetti, Garcia (if he shows up this year), Wesneski. Walter, Blubaugh, and Alexander waiting in the wings. Late season, I think Ullola will get a shot or two. Garcia could also end up in the pen.
Astros Controllable pitching analysis: Brown (2028): Ace Javier (2027): looking decent considering the rust. Can be penciled in as a #4 SP but could be a #3. Arrighetti (2030): was a #5 with very high upside before the fluke injury, should get 5-6 more starts this season to help inform his projection, currently projects as an enigmatic #4. Blubaugh (2031): too early to tell how good he is but the upside to be a #3 or better is there, needs more sample size Alexander (2031): looks like a #4-6 SP depending on how hitters adjust Gordon (2031): looks like a #5-6 SP, will have a place on the 40 man while he has options France (2029): looked like a #5-6 SP before TJS getting hurt, will be out of options next season so projects as rotation depth who fits a multi-inning role if everybody is healthy. Blanco (2029): Looked like a #4 SP before TJS, out until late 2026. Wesneski (2029): looked like a #4 SP with #3 upside before TJS, probably out until 2027 Walter (2031): looked like a #3 SP before he got hurt, and it’s not known how bad the injury is. Given Houston’s track record we should assume he needs TJS and won’t be back until 2027. McCullers (2026): looks cooked, nothing but depth/IL fodder unless something changes Garcia (2027): was a #4 with #3 upside before losing 2 years to injury. Should get some big league innings in Sept to get more info, probably shouldn’t be counted on until he shows it in MLB Ullola: one of the best fastballs in the minors and the highest upside P in the system outside of Brown. Ready to get called up and start seeing what he can do against big league hitters and will come to next spring competing for a spot if he’s not traded. Pecko: a prospect I am really high on who should be ready in the middle of next season and has #3 upside. Tredwell: a prospect with surging stock who could contribute late 2026 and has #3 upside. Mayer: another prospect I really like who could be ready late 2026 and has #3 upside. Other depth SP who could be ready sometime in 2026: Fleury, Hicks, Santos, David, Dombroski, Nezuh High upside arms further away: Brito, Forcucci, others So it appears the middle/back of the rotation and bullpen should have plenty of depth over the next half decade. And I feel confident that at least one arm will be capable of filling the #3 spot in the playoffs. Brown is the ace for 3 more seasons after this one, so the question is who the #2 SP will be. Houston has the prospect depth (mostly OF and big league ready SP) to acquire a very good pitcher this offseason; it may not be a bonafide “ace”, but it will be a good pitcher that we can be excited about. And if it doesn’t work out, there’s always the deadline.
I don't disagree. In 2027 i have the Astros moving on from : McCullers ( injury history is exhausting ) Luis Garcia ( wind up is exhausting...too much wasted movement. Samoan or Haka-like). J.P. France (UFA). I'm a big fan of France. I feel he gets paid more than the Astros would like to pay. I believe Framber will be 31 and Javier 30 in 2027. Javier gets paid around $21M in 2026 & 2027....so that's acceptable. Framber taking a Max Fried $210 over 8 years would take Framber to age 36. Im hoping the Astros can get him to $25M/yr x 5 yrs this summer. The over $25M per year gets touchy and it's hard to out spend Dodgers/Yankees. But the Astros have Pecko, Ullola and Blabaugh ready to come up next year, imo. My issue with Pena is his agent Scott Boras. I can't remember the Astros ever dealing with him and not getting screwed. I'm fine with Correa even though he doesn't cover as much ground as Pena. I like Peredes works for me. Brice Matthews covers a lot of ground which will protect Correa somewhat.
Framber is almost 32 right now. I do not see any way he gets an 8 year contract that will take him through age 39. But I never thought Fried would get 8 years, so what do I know
Also this Dan Q, Lee, whatever chef you were talking about, etc... I really wanted to kill several of those pitchers
Next year's Astros will be better than this years Astros And this year's Astros should still make the playoffs
I expect the Astros will be healthier next year. Losing Framber (even if he's everyone's whipping boy at the moment), several players over 30 being a year older, and likely not being as lucky (random variance, manager skill, or whatever you want to call it when a team wins more than underlying stats suggests) as they have been this year (not counting injuries), I expect the Astros to have a worse record next season even if the team is a little better.
"Not counting injuries" is a pretty huge caveat. I believe the difference between 'normal' injury luck and this year's shitshow was a lot more than any other random luck we think they experienced. There is no reason not to expect full years from most of Yordan, Meyers, Javier, Arrighetti, Parades, Hader, Wesneski, Sanchez, Urias and Garcia. That is a LOT of extra talent we missed most of this year. Maybe Walter and McCullers also. And they will sign someone to replace 70% of Framber, while Pena and Cam at least can expect to get better even as the older players get worse (maybe Yanier, Parades and the young pitchers also). I expect the net impact to be a pretty meaningful improvement.
I expect them to win more games next season than this season. Partially because of injury luck, but also because I trust Dana Brown to trade for a good pitcher to replace Framber without damaging the other parts of the roster and I trust Crane to max payroll. I do think 2026 will be the last good/great team of the Altuve era. I expect them to take a step back in 2027-2028 barring unforecasted breakouts. For now I am really optimistic about the lower levels of the farm system so I do think any re-build/step back will only last 1-2 seasons before they come back on an upswing.
The Astros are pretty much on pace to finish where FanGraphs had them predicted in the preseason. Basically, the injury bad luck and bad performance luck (i.e., worse than projected perfomance) has been canceled by random variability luck and good performance luck (better than projected performance). I think a lot of that random variability luck and good performance luck has started to see some regression while the Christian's Walkers haven't been getting good enough fast enough to make up for guys healing slowly.
What makes you think they will be worse in 27 than 26? We don’t lose anyone of note in 26 and I expect Ullola and blubaugh to be established and good. Abreu is the only real painful 2026 loss
Should there be an urgency to extend Bryan Abreu or does he become trade bait for a starter? I know he's under control through 2026 but all he's done is dominate whether it be in the 8th or closing out in the 9th. He's going to be a top line closer somewhere.
