Thank you fir the Vucevic example. There are some good and bad news there. Let's start with the good one: Your interpretation of his numbers is not accurate. The 53% season is the first season and on very low volume. The next 5 seasons are 72-74% seasons with 3-4% standard deviation, which is normal considering the lower volume comparing the Sengun. The jump really comes in the season after 67% and he becomes 81-82% ft shooter with 2-3% standard deviation (87% is also on very low volume). And his overall volume is about 1/3rd of Sengun's, so if you want to compare shooting ability based on these numbers, you can pull them down a couple percentage points considering volume difference. So his story is, maybe he made an initial jump to 72-74% when he came to the nba, but we can't tell it from this data. And he made another jump after season 5. The bad news is Vucevic is a no hustle player. I don't know him in detail but he probably basically focused on shooting. And even then it took him 5 seasons to make a jump. Sengun has higher volume and puts so much more effort on the court, particularly on defense. This makes improvements in shooting much harder. His game is much more versatile and he is investing in different areas. He improved his defense almost beyond anyone's dreams in short time. He transformed his body. He also suffered a major injury in the mean time. All things considered, it would be unfair to expect him to jump to 80% and again, it is not realistic. But I think 73-75 ish is possible. Thank you for the examples as well. Again low effort players who are mostly focused on offense. I think this supports what I said above. The mvp season in Turkiye is another piece of good news. I think that shows he has potential but I don't think he can show it with the physical and mental effort he is putting in the nba. 82 game season with lots of travel, he is playing both sides of the game and is kind of the most important player on both ends. That's probably why he can't come close to that 80% in the nba.
You are making a classic mistake trying to use the results of a situational context to predict future success. I did see him in the playoffs - it wasn't about Fred being amazing so much as the Warriors swarmed Green as a strategy and forced other guys to step up(including Fred). It worked for the Warriors in the first few games - Fred went 6/27 from two and 3/20 from 3pt despite not having a defender within 4-6ft(Open) of him for nearly 50% of his shots and 6+ft for another 33%(Wide Open). Think about that - the Warriors as a strategy, left Fred Open to Wide Open for 83% of his shots in those first two games. They didn't trust his ability to reliably hit open shots and they were right for the first 2.5 games or so. They kept that strategy for most of the series and Fred did shoot better to your point to end the series out - 42% from two and 57% from three but Fred was still left Open or Wide Open by design for 62% of those shots. That tells me we can count of Fred to show up 4 out of 7 games when left open but even in those last 4 games when he was cooking, he still shot 40% from the field when a defender was less than 4ft from him and his FG% went down the more dribbles he took. So can Fred be counted on to hit open shots? I think to your point absolutely yes. I have no concerns there. The question I was answering is - can Fred generate offense when someone hasn't left him open by design. The numbers suggest he is far more mediocre when a defender is not helping off him AND he is not great when he is forced to dribble to get a better shot so teams are rewarded for running Fred off the line. He will be GREAT next to Durant...but when Durant is out for 20+ games of the season(hopefully not more) or when he hits the bench, who is generating offense on this team? That's where we have to look at Alpi, Amen, and Fred to generate offense and that is going to be a weakness for this team because Alpi's skill as a playmaker is entirely based on whether a team wants to double him and some teams(like the Warriors) are happy to get in a shooting contest with Houston if Alpi is the offense because he only shoots twos, he isn't quite elite in the post with all the bunnies he misses, and because of his poor FT shooting. Amen is still probably a 1.5 level scorer at this stage in his game(finishes at a high level, still unreliable on that mid range game) so while I expect him to be better, he is still very early on his development as a primary lead scorer...and that leaves Fred who the numbers suggest can still play off of other stars at a high level(albeit inconsistently), but who struggles when defenses try to slow him down and force him to put the ball on the floor to get shots.
I think the real problem here is Alpi's dominant skill is his ability to read defenses and think ahead of rotations. I think more and more teams will just prefer to play Alpi one on one, let him get his 22ish-pts a game because the shooting splits are good but not elite and if Alpi gets fouled, you figure he will leave some points on the table. That creates a scenario where he doesn't get to leverage the truly elite passing skills as much that make him far more dangerous on the court when he can get more limited offensive guys like Tari Eason or Amen easy buckets. Ultimately Alpi improving his shooting is about putting opposing defenses in a situation where Alpi WILL score 35+ if they don't double and will get his opponent in foul trouble and force them to send help which is when the offense will open up because we have a nice mix of high level connectors(Amen, Reed, KD, Fred) and guys who can play smart off the ball(Jabari, DFS, Tari, Green, Holiday) who can make teams pay while in rotations. I know Alpi can really improve the ceiling of this team if he is getting 6+assists a game but I think he has to give teams more of a reason to double him than he currently is.
easier said than done single coverage means better chances of Alpi maling his shots and 70 or 80% FT%, opponents will get in foul trouble if they keep on fouling Alpi
I'm here for the Alpi revenge tour. He needs to put up 40+ on any team who doesn't double him. I'm hoping he has that kind of year this year...I'm skeptical, but would love to see him take it up a level this year. Him being a dominant player pushes this team into a whole other category.
Last season kind of lowered my hopes of Senhub becoming a thing because like you said, teams are starting to prefer to play him straight up rather than double. This isn't to say he can't still leverage his passing skills. Marc Gasol wasn't quite the level of post up threat that his brother was, but he was no less of a passer and still made great plays for some pretty offensively challenged Grizzlies rosters. Al Horford's passing was still great after his iso scoring days ended. I think Al P's basketball IQ would still let him shine as a connective passer rather than a focal point of the defense. I doubt Sengun becomes that level of scoring threat (35+ if not doubled). With a slight decline in his averages and a big drop in his efficiency in his fourth year I'm guessing he's close to his ceiling if he hasn't hit it already. And there's nothing wrong with that, he's already a high level offensive player. IMO, I'm far more relieved that he's improved so much on the defensive end and isn't a big liability on switches. That's way more important than him scoring 25ppg+. For instance, KAT might be twice the scorer Marc Gasol was but if I had to build a championship team in a vacuum I'd take the latter.
I don't think he is at his ceiling, but like you said he may be pretty close. It's mainly just, can he maintain and perhaps build upon his defensive improvements while getting back to his peak levels of scoring efficiency (or close to it). If he can do that and consistently sit there throughout his prime years, I feel pretty comfortable saying he will be a top 20 player and make a number of further all-star appearances. If the shooting comes around to some degree (even if it's just like 35% from three on mid-volume, 75% from the FT line) that's his only real path to becoming a top 10 player. I could see it happening but I think the odds are better that it doesn't at this point, or at least not before his athleticism begins to decline, given his lack of improvement in that area so far.
It's wild that we're all quibbling over shooting when we all know (and many have acknowledged) that the biggest key is SENHUB, Ime just needs to stop playing 90's ball and let Alpi actually be the playmaker he was born to be.
It's ironic. Jalen Green stans would always regurgitate how young he was, he has plenty of time to improve. All the while year after year Jalen showing his absolute inability to improve. Meanwhile, Alpi has consistently improved his game during his time in the league. Yet he isn't looked at in the same lens and many clamour to claim he's done growing and can't improve. It defies logic and belief. Oh well. I wonder just what Sengun will prove naysayers wrong with this season. Just like the previous three.
Senhub would work better if teams couldn't just sit help defenders at the rim. So many times Sengun got a smaller guy on him against GSW, but couldn't make a ten-footer and didn't want to back down/drive by a smaller guy further, as that was where the help was. Either Sengun or someone else on the team needs to shoot better. I'm expecting Durant to help some. To me, the biggest question for next season is whether the Rockets can create more space.
I agree, but I also think it'd work better if we actually let him try to do it. Ime just doesn't use him that way at all, he's used as a play-finisher the vast majority of the time. Of course he's not going to playmake as well when his main opportunity to do is is as a fallback plan if his attack fails. It's the trait he had that made him stand out most as a rookie (and where the Baby Jokic moniker actually came from) and it's just not remotely been in Ime's offensive gameplan to utilise that. As much as I love Ime as an overall coach and defensive mind, he's so pedestrian and clueless on the other end of the ball.
I think even the biggest Jalen Green stans think he's plateaued by now. I was plenty complimentary of Sengun's game. Said he's already a high level offensive player and acknowledged his huge growth on defense. If expressing doubt that he can consistently be a 35+ scorer if not doubled, solely because he hit a wall in scoring average and efficiency last season, makes me a naysayer then so be it. If it makes me a Jalen Green stan, well thanks for derailing the thread I guess.
I suspect the offense will look different with better offensive players. I think there is a very good chance that either Amen or Sengun (or combined) has a big jump in assists.
Wait, when in the world did the conversation turn to Sengun being able to score 35+ HAHAHAHAHAHA. So you're saying your barometer of Sengun improving is - whether he can score more per game than nobody in the league has ever been able to do outside of Kobe Bryant and James Harden in the past 20 years? Good lord. GOOD LORD.
