6’8 gives him extension no one else can replicate, but agreed the lackluster fastball velocity probably doesn’t make it elite. He also has a good curveball from what I’ve seen and doesn’t have the same walk issues as the majority of our top pitching prospects. If he hits his ceiling by adding velocity to his fastball, he fits the profile of a 4 pitch workhorse with 2 plus pitches that can go deep into games because he throws strikes. All our pitching prospects have flaws, but you can’t teach Tredwells physical measurable’s.
OF Zach Cole was promoted to AAA. Legitimate 30/30 potential with potential plus CF defense, but has consistently carried a 30%+ k rate.
AAA season ends Labor Day weekend, right? ETA: Sugarland Space Cowboy Schedule says Sept 21. Corpus Christi Hooks Schedule says Sept 14. Playoffs can extend both.
Last season they instituted later season ends for AA and AAA, I think the idea is to have AAA still going in case big leaguers need rehab stints in Sept. Big opportunity for Cole although I think he is what he is (Joey Gallo with less walks, more steals, and better defense). I mentioned this before but if I was a crummy team with an opening at CF or RF I would strongly consider popping Cole in the Rule 5 draft.
You can tell from that clip but it’s backed up by the stats: Cole smacks the **** out of the ball, even when he doesn’t hit it square. That lets him get a lot of hits even when he doesn’t make great contact, which is why he will always carry higher than normal BABIP and could hit >.250 even with a 35% k rate. Even though he’s already 25, I think there’s still a small amount of developmental upside there because he was pretty raw coming out of the draft. I also think he’s a guy that could be as good or better in the majors as he is in the minors. George Springer had a 13.8% swinging strike % and a 14.6% called strike % in 2014 in AAA before he was called up. Cole is at 15.9% and 17.6% respectively in AA this season; those are the numbers I’ll be watching for Cole in AAA over the next month, and if he is able to keep them both <15% over a 100+ pa sample size in AAA, he should probably be added to the 40 man roster.
UDFA OF Mason Lytle crossed the 50 pa threshold in High A and is sporting an insane 5% k rate; when paired with his 7% walk rate, >87% of his at bats have ended with the ball put in play. Unfortunately he has also yet to record an extra base hit and has a paltry .208 BABIP. So he looks like a super contact hitter with no power. Depending on his defense and baserunning value, that might be enough to make him a bench outfielder.
Lytle did hit 21 homers in two years at UTSA, so that probably suggests that he at least has some gap power. Don't know how the ballparks played in the AAC but I imagine they skewed towards hitters. Looks like a pissant in the making, especially if the K/BB rates hold (doesn't look like he did much of either at UTSA).
I don't know about highest ceiling. I don't think it is silly to think so, but I agree that the velocity isn't there - but the Astros think that he will add velocity with physical growth and improved mechanics. We will see, I suppose if I were to vouch for him, I would point to the strikeouts and success. I do think that he is someone that Brown would likely think long and hard before trading. The Astros took him high and after not doing a lot, he has suddenly worked his way up to AA with success.
Looking at potential big league outcomes, here are some OF with >30% k and >.230 BA over the last 10 years (min 200 pa): Garrett Mitchell Joey Loperfido Matt Wallner Steven Souza Oneil Cruz Brandon Marsh Domingo Santana Cruz might not be a bad comp for Cole. Cruz struck out quite a bit less than Cole in the minors though.
Yeah - it is weird isn't it. I figured if he got this far he would have really cut down his strikeouts -- but he hasn't. He had 450 strikeouts in 300 games and his strikeout rate hasn't really gone down at all.... simply amazing. He uses a healthy walk rate (one every other game) and a high rates of triples, doubles and homers to overcome giving away like 40% of his at bats.... it is a formula that should be unsustainable... yet here we are. He also is a high level fielder and when he feels like it, he can be a very good base runner. He can hit lefties and righties --- which only adds more mystery to him as a prospect. Has an elite throwing arm to boot. Sometimes when I have seen him he has flashed extreme power with his strong lower body, bat speed and loft off the bat. He looked like toast in 2024 - but he later said he played hurt all year, in 2025 he has come back strong.
No posts on Garcia's outing last night? Throwing 94, only 1 walk in 6 innings.... was hoping somebody following could say why we should either be encouraged or discouraged. Looking back at Javier's rehab/minor league starts prior to him starting, he was walking a lot of guys down there.... which has continued as he's come back. His command (or ability to throw first pitch strikes) has always been iffy. You just can't get away with walking guys at this level. If Garcia can command the strike zone, even slightly lesser velocity should translate to effectiveness, presuming his arm bounces back/etc.
Much higher risk profile than Melton and just generally a lesser prospect. Melton could be Joc Pederson with good CF defense and a ton of SB, and he has the floor of Derek Fisher. Cole’s ceiling is Joey Gallo with average CF defense and more SB, with the floor of a bad AAA player.
Wonderful... Melton does concern me now that the league is dissecting his flaws, along with his lingering health issues (back). He will have all off-season to get healthy, workout, make adjustments, and compete for a potential spot. (or he goes the way Fisher went).
Melton has been pretty awful and his contact and pitch recognition have been disappointing. But he’s had a little bit of bad luck, hasn’t played consistently enough to draw any conclusions, and he’s talented enough to warrant a full 200 pa of everyday play before he’s written off; that might have to come with another team. I think he projects as a strikeout prone fringe regular with upside, but his range of outcomes is still very wide.
I just looked at the savant data and it’s encouraging. His velocity for all his pitches was within 1 mph of his career averages. He got 14 swinging strikes. His zone % and pretty much all the other numbers I see look good. He should be ready to try pitching in the majors.
