It is always easy to write off struggles for free agents joining bad teams - but I do think some of that applies here. I don't know what the future holds, but if i were the Astros I would claim him.
2 years for 40 million for each? It's like a bizarro challenge trade from the old days where I swap my 1B for your 1B and see whose right. Only this time with identical contracts as opposed to identical positions. Interesting. I'd really want to be sure that Paredes was ready for opening day. I love Urias and want him to play every day at 2B. I also want Caratini back. Seems like moving off Chas would give you enough money to bring back Caratini for 10.5M next year (Caratini's 7 plus Chas 3.5). If you did that you'd have backup at 1B covered with Caratini if you wanted to trade Walker and figured Paredes would play something like 135 games and call that a win. Then, even if Rodriguez ended up cut... your money situation didn't get worse.
I think the line up, if healthy - next year should be pretty good. Meyers is a candidate for regression until he puts a couple quality seasons together, and who knows what Cam Smith will do. So there are some areas, but not a lot where the Astros could use help. I believe Urias is a free agent as well, but there is Brice Matthews as a possible answer there. I think the pitching side is where you are more likely to find a fit in a trade for Walker. First, Walker have been good after a slow start - his OPS is North of .800 the last two months, and if he keeps it up the rest of the season, I think any concerns teams have will be more limited. He is overpaid unless a team really has a need at first. The Diamondbacks would be a fit for Eduardo Rodriguez. The Astros always need pitching, especially with Framber leaving. Rodriguez has overall not been so good in Arizona, but the raw stuff is there and he could easily slot in as a #3-4 starter that is a veteran. The salaries are a wash as well. San Francisco has wanted him in the past as well, and they could trade for him - with the Asrtros kicking some money this next two seasons. Even if the Astros kick in 5 million for 2026 and 2027 - that would clear 15 million off the books to look elsewhere, and essentially they would have dealt Walker for Correa. Paredes would certainly be able to play 1st.
are we giving no weight to Walker’s resurgence since July 1? I mean, what if he continues this pace through end of regular season and playoffs? Isn’t that the very bat and value we wanted? Wouldn’t think that walkers contract would be much under water.
With Correa back and Urias under contact (arbitration but still control) through 2027 it's just the logical place for Paredes to play so we don't need Walker anymore. If he finishes strong to the end of the year might someone consider him only $5 or $10M underwater total and take him on with only a little cash attached? Sure. And I'd do that. Unless I was really making big and massive moves elsewhere. I won't even suggest such for fear of angering snake.
If nothing else, if Rodriguez is healthy - he would eat innings which is going to be a massive issue for the Astros in 2026 with Framber gone and so many pitchers coming off injuries that are apparently anemic at going deep into games. Rodriguez is also still in his prime, and has been very good in the past. He is a good reclamation project for the Astros pitching coaches. The Giants are going to want to add a bat or two and an arm. If they could get Walker for around 2/30, that is something they likely would be very interested in. The Astros could get a reliever and kick in 5 million each of the next two seasons. The Blue Jays are looking at losing Bichette this off season and would like to add a bat without a long term deal. Vlad Guerrero could switch to DH and Walker could play first and hit in the middle of the line up. The Astros could take back Santander, or another player on a smaller contract the Jays want moved - or offer to pay down some, but not a lot of the Walker deal. So - I think that the Astros can move Walker, especially if they are aggressive and willing to eat 20-25% of the deal if they have to. It sounds bad but it isn't a lot of money, and the savings is enough for the Astros to add a pretty good player on a shorter deal or put it with some of the Framber savings to target another starting pitcher. Zack Littell? Merrill Kelly? Zach Eflin? Dylan Cease (on a bigger deal), Shane Bieber?
You act as if it’s always Yordan’s hand. last year he hurt his knee He came out of a game one time because of firework smoke.
If Walker were to maintain a 780-880 OPS in September - then he would have neutral value. The issue is that there are not a lot of teams looking for a 1st baseman. Having said that, yes, as long as he doesn't tank in September - he is moveable, and there would be a group of 3-5 teams with some degree of interest. Ideally Paredes shows that he can play 2nd base, the Astros keep Walker and hit him 6th and he is one of the top few 6 hole hitters in baseball. That gives the Astros Gold Glove defense at 1st, the best defensive infield in baseball and a power/clutch hitter down in the line up. If Paredes is healthy but cannot play second, and Correa doesn't magically volunteer to play there - then the Astros will be able to move Walker without a lot of damage. Personally - I think this line up would be elite next year both offensively and defensively overall: Pena Paredes Correa Alvarez Altuve Walker Diaz Myers Smith Urias/Matthews
You are bad defensively ar 2B and Lf everyday that Urias doesn’t play, but you can offset that I suppose with late inning defensive substitutions. Paredes as a second baseman and Alvarez or Altuve in LF is just bad, no two ways around it. That’s workable though with good glove level defense at 1B, SS, 3B, CF and LF, and a good glove sitting on bench to defensively sub at 2B late in leads. I would probably trade Dubon and carry melton in LF just to be elite late innings defensively all across the OF. And I say that not liking melton. He could run for Paredes or Altuve after their last ups in the 7th or 8th and play defense every day.
Astros have tons of options. You listed 11 guys in that lineup and it doesn’t include Sanchez, Dubon, McCormick, or Melton. I also consider Dezenzo a potential everyday player who has value. I think Paredes would be passable at 2B; I don’t have a great reason for my optimism, other than he’s played there before, he’s still young, and even though his body doesn’t look like it, I think he’s a hard worker. But I really expect Houston to follow the market. They will explore swapping Walker for a pitcher. They will see if anyone wants to go overboard for Pena or Paredes or Meyers. Fwiw I think Smith can handle CF. They will discuss making moves on the margins with guys like Dubon, Urias, Sanchez, McCormick, etc. The rest of the season should give them great information about their SP depth to really hone in on their needs. But if they make good evaluations and the market breaks in their favor, they could end up with the deepest opening day roster they’ve ever had next season.
Deepest yes. Best? Not even close on 2019 I don't think. But if you are talking about is your 9th best every day player better or your 12th best arm then yeah- it could be 2026 if things go well.
Yeah they’re not touching 2019 in terms of total talent. 2019 had 3 guys put up MVP caliber offense (Yordan, Bregman, Springer) and another 4 with All-Star caliber offense (Correa, Altuve, Gurriel, Brantley). Reddick and Chirinos were the other 2 everyday players and they were both good hitters with plus defense. The pitching staff had the 2 best pitchers in the league and another elite closer. Just sick. It’s actually ****ed up that they didn’t finish the job. But 2026 could be deeper; they could have 10+ guys post above average offense with 6-7 above average SP and an elite 1-2 punch in the back of the pen.
Still a month to go, but yeah it’s looking good unless Brown doesn’t finish strong and/or maybe somebody like Fried busts out. If I’m a betting man I think Houston will get that pick.
I agree with you - I think this is right. Paredes is known as a very hard worker and a smart player. I expect him to surprise people, as he gets better the longer he works. He has some physical limitations, but he does everything possible to overcome those - he is very focused on playing baseball and I think that he will surprise people with his bat especially. If he needs to get stronger in his core and lose some weight to play second, he will do everything possible. I think Smith can play centerfield as well, and I think for at least the next few seasons he won't be a liability out there. The plan was for the Astros to try and get him acclimated to CF this winter. This was before the swoon post all-star break, and I do not know if they have changed their mind. I personally think that the struggles are the result of Smith never having played near this much baseball before. I think the "hole" is obviously will be that the Astros are going to want another #1-2 type starter. They could try to sign someone older on a short term deal, but I am banking on them moving pieces like Melton/Matthews and maybe a depth starter for someone that is under contract for at least 2026 and likely also 2027. If the finances allow it, I could see them add another solid reliever as well.
