It still doesn't matter if they're not strikes (or not appearing to be strikes). What is the deception/swing rate/averages on his curve right now?
Jees... bringing up draft peripherals... that was 14 years and 3? arm surgeries ago! I think they'll end up keeping him in this role unless/until one of the other fringe/minor/injury returned starters cements their place as a bonafide every 4th-5thday guy (which I don't really see happening). They do need to still spell Brown some (continues to exceed career innings), and figure out whatever is wrong with Framber minus the mental side.
In regards to trading Yordan, I have been conflicted. On the one hand, he potentially has great trade value and the organization has a huge lack of impact prospects. Furthermore, he is limited to DH 66% or more of their time, Altuve is rapidly heading that direction, and both are under a high financial commitment for 3+ years. Then throw in the unsurety of Paredes no longer having an open position and potentially reduced defensive ability. On the other hand, he has 2 specific and valuable "skills" that this team is lacking - lefthanded run production and 40-50+ HR power. If you consider the 162 game gauntlet and injury risk, IMO this team needs him AND the other hitters who are causing us to talk of trading him, if they want to stay competitive. IMO the best option this team has is to communicate to Altuve, Yordan, Paredes, Correa, and Walker that none of them will start 140+ games unless there is a major injury to one of them. Give them rest. Use the nerd cave to determine how to schedule time off to maximize production and health. And have a top offense that is fresh and feared for the next 2 years, at least.
His curve is getting a much higher whiff rate (34%) than any of his other 3 pitches (next highest is his slider at 25%, and his fastball is sitting at a paltry 15%). His curve is also generating a .285 wOBA, his next best pitch is his slider at .368(!). Basically hitters have been Cooper Hummel against his curve and Aaron Judge against his other pitches. In looking for what a realistic expectation could be for a positive outcome for McCullers, I think in terms of value, he could be 2022-2024 Ryan Pressly. Pressly’s fastball velo started declining in 2020, so by 2022 he was 2-3 ticks below his peak and was sitting 93-94 in one inning stints, living off his slider. Pressly was not an elite RP during those 3 seasons but he was still a very effective leverage RP and put up ~$35M worth of value during that time. If moving to 1 inning stints would let McCullers sit 93-94 and throw his curve 35-40% of the time, he could be that good.
From a stuff perspective, I agree. But pressly’s composure was elite. So was his command. I’m confident in saying LMJ doesn’t have nearly that level of command. I’m pretty sure his composure isn’t as high also, albeit he does have track record of playoff performance.
That’s a reasonable concern, as is the fact that McCullers has been very injury prone, especially relative to Pressly. But at this point, McCullers has no value as a SP in my opinion, so it really doesn’t matter what the risks are for converting him to relief, because otherwise his career should be over.
What are the location/command stats…. And what’s the realistic expectation of effectiveness if his ‘arsenal’ is dialed down to just this one pitch? I just don’t see his stuff or impact being more positive in any sort of leverage situation because of the command issues. (let alone his ability to get warm/sit/warm without much planning ahead of time… which is also something he’s never done in his professional career). His role right now is as an opener/starter where any positive inning(s) he gives you is a bonus… and you have some other tandem person ready to come in when he’s off. Not that his current opener/2-3 inning role (till he either falls apart or a tandem comes in) is all that helpful…. But it does allow Hunter/Framber to sit for an additional day… and there’s still roughly a 20%? Chance he could be on/effective and the team wins a start of his.
His curve has a k% of 33%, next best pitch is slider at 25%. His current role as a SP (not opener, since an opener is a RP who is available for standard RP roles in other games) is not a bonus, in fact it is the opposite. Every start he makes puts the pitching staff in a giant hole having to cover innings and doesn’t give his team a realistic chance to win the game. If they moved him to a real opener role, where he started every 5th or 6th game and only pitched 2-3 innings, and was available to pitch in relief at least one time in between starts, I’d be fine with that and think he might have a chance to provide real value in that role, but at that point he’s basically converted to relief.
Still not really describing his command (or lack thereof). The lack there of is incompatible with bullpen appearances. He’s basically in that role… till somebody either currently injured or completely new performs well enough to take that spot. They can (and usually have) somebody stretched out to come into relief. And while it’s not seemingly all that helpful, it does push starters back.
I will say this, McCullers underlying numbers point to him being just really bad instead of unplayable; he’s had bad batted ball luck and poor defensive support. His xFIP is better than Arrighetti’s. So there’s that. But I would still much rather see Blubaugh or Gordon in the rotation over McCullers.
McCullers in the pen would be a disaster. Dude can’t throw strikes. It would be like Ken Giles in the 2017 WS whenever he comes in. leverage situation or not
Correa has absolutely pissed on a couple of his HR’s and gone deeeeeeep since coming back. He’s had 3 HR’s. I’d like more. He’s also hitting 380. I care less about that. Is it something in his approach? Trading launch angle for contact? He’s always traded up the middle for pull when I wish he wouldn’t always do that.
I think he's just a shell of his former self. And now the league has a full book on the 2.0 version of him. It was effective end of 2022 when there wasn't as much of his new pitch usage/repertoire on file (which we all saw blow up in the WS)... and I know the thought was that the surgery would possibly get him back to where he was in 2021, but its clear now that he is who he is.
This. I think that the Astros must be thinking that McCullers must be close to turning the corner and become league average or better starter. If not, WTF.
In the end it's comparing crap with crap. I do think Arrighetti has more of a chance of pulling it together in time for the playoffs, and this last start was promising. Lance hasn't pitched a good game since early July. But neither of them are playable in the playoffs or in the heat of the pennant race if we've got must win games in the last week. I agree with you that Blubaugh and Gordon both at least give you a chance to win. A 4 something ERA can be overcome with a good lineup, while these 6+ ERA guys leave you in a hole impossible to climb out of. And they burn your whole bullpen in a way that hurts beyond the single bad game.
He had tremendous numbers last year when healthy. This was after 2 years of meh numbers when he first went to Minnesota, so maybe he did change/unlock something last year.... and again, his numbers this year heavily skewed by his catastrophic first month. While the Astros-only numbers are unsustainable... they are more in line with his numbers last season vs. the washed up numbers he showcased to start this year. Situations do also impact one's effectiveness. JV was thought of as a somewhat washed up pitcher way back in 2017. Sometimes these guys just need to be on the teams that are day-in/day-out competing to unlock that extra level. We already know Carlos' post-season track record... and its more than just small-sample size impacts.
12 starts isn’t always a permanent picture. Of course he can improve. As of right now, he would be a disaster in the pen.
Shall we talk about how Framber could grow a second head tomorrow that would aid his lack of mental fortitude?
Current injury status: Likely back tomorrow: Alvarez Rehabbing: Garcia, Leon, Rodgers Starting rehab next week: Meyers, Dezenzo TBD: Sousa, Hader, Paredes, Trammell Out until at least 2026: Wesneski, Walter, Blanco
Whats the story on Garcia ? I feel like he was making consecutive on-time rehab starts and then has not thrown for like 8 or 9 days now ... did i miss an outing of his ? Out of all the guys , he was the one i was most optimistic about .
