So examining the race for the division title. Imagine for one moment that we are playing Seattle this weekend in that last 3 game series that we are scheduled for. If we win 2 of the 3, that puts Seattle 3 games back in the loss column, but really 4 games to make up to win the division because we would own the tiebreaker. If we lose 2 of 3, then Seattle is 1 game back of Houston in the loss column and in reality only 1 game to make up to win the division because they would own the tiebreaker. Just illustrating the ultimate importance of that last series with Seattle which you would think ends up deciding the division winner.
They say you don't want to peak too soon... 2025 Astros are about to find out if that's a thing or not. For them to still have the same division lead they had before the Baltimore series: while Framber has officially gone back to 2019 head-case levels, while we've seen Sanchez start out hot and now look like a complete liability, while we've seen the bullpen (other than Abreu) implode since Hader's injury, we've seen Walker/Diaz continue to do the same shitty inconsistencies they've done all season.... (meanwhile, Correa still hitting the ball as good as he has all season).... A lot of fortunate turns and one more "run" and this last inept week+ can be forgotten.... but my biggest concern is that they just don't have the stud pitching anymore (on both ends) to get it done. And that will be the concern this off-season as well... minus Garcia coming back and surprising everybody (he will be pitching for a contract). Javier is more or less still who he was... and the stamina/longevity concerns, abilities to pitch a full season, etc. will always be there with him (till they're not)
So now I'm nearly convinced there will be no wildcard coming from the AL West. Win the division or you're home for the playoffs. KC and Cleveland are the 2 teams trying to get into that last WC spot. ----- Houston (Division leader) 0.0 NYY WC1 1.0 Boston WC2 1.5 Seattle WC3 3.5 Kansas City OUT 4.0 Cleveland OUT We not own the tiebreaker vs Cleveland and we also don't currently own the tiebreaker vs KC (Astros 16-17 within the division, KC 19-17, so this is still in play).
I will be paying VERY close attention to the next 2 starts each for Alexander, Javier, and Arrighetti. If they all 3 look like crud then that will be a very bad omen because I do not think McCullers or Garcia are the answer to anything. The Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Thats really just 1 game from things looking “ok”. Framber has always been prone to laying a turd once in awhile. I think he’ll be fine. The offense has been abysmal but some of that is luck. I’m encouraged by how Pena and Correa look, Yordan could spark things back.
Hopefully this is a dog days thing. Looks to me like the pitching cant carry the team any longer. Bats gotta step up and Espada needs to be a leader of men.
Agreed if its mental on Framber... but has he had a stretch like the last 4 games at any point since 2021? Alexander and the changeup sequencing will likely get figured out eventually (sorta like what happened to France eventually even before the injury). Arrighetti still basically a rookie, and still basically in extended spring training... shouldn't expect much out of him till likely next season. Javier/Garcia have to get back to where they were pre-injury (where both still had issues).... otherwise there's absolutely nothing to be optimistic about there.
On a positive note, they didn't get shut out! But, yeah, the game was over before Framber even got an out. That's pretty bad. The guys are playing horrible baseball right now. It's ugly!
