Let's say it's 2028: Just from an offensive standpoint, if they can have a foundational core of Pena, Y. Alvarez, Cam Smith, J. Sanchez, B. Matthews, I'd take it. Then supplement it with guys like K. Alvarez, Janek, and Neyens....we could be onto something for another few years.
He seems more mature and comfortable with who he is as a person and ball player. When he was a teenager and later, he heard all the comparisons to Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken and talked about being the first billion dollar baseball player. I think the injuries, the contracts falling apart coupled with the success and leaving and coming back have set him up to be the best that he can be going forward. We can discuss homers and batting averages and everything else - but the reality is that he is 30 years old and will have 46-47 career WAR at the end of this season. That takes into account that he has missed 450 games as a big leaguer and still has that high a WAR number. He has a decent chance of being a Hall of Famer and an All Time Astro.
I love the fact we have him back as a player but whenever I see an interview he does seem a bit too polished in a distasteful Arod type of way but that’s just me.
He can also advise the kids that the Prada boutiques on the other side aren't always bigger. Stay in Houston, Young Brother Brown.
I'd argue the opposite. Him, Verlander, Bregman, Springer, and soon-to-be-Tucker are all evidence that you can go get your money if the Astros won't pay you and still end up in great situations.
He made out with the move. He had some big offers that got nixed because of the x-rays. He still got more from the Twins than with us. He took them to the playoffs and now he back here while still making 35 million a year.
Giving huge 10 year contracts seldomly ever works out for team long term. The Astros were smart and the players are smart by taking what they can get while they can. The Rangers ate a lot of money trading away ARod even though he lived up to his contracts for the most part.
I would think this is more about winning than cashing checks? They're all going to prioritize money, and they should. But Correa's return, I think, is putting a spotlight on the idea that money isn't *all* that motivates these guys - they love winning. I would bet decent money 2022 did not sit well with Correa.
None of the players we are talking about signed a huge 10 year contract. The MLB system is not particularly an equitable one in terms of who gets paid. We as fans root against big contracts because they are expensive and risky. It becomes a salary structure of haves and have nots because *somebody* gets paid. The best teams are the ones that have the ability to spend and do so wisely. The Astros have chosen not to pay long contracts - but they've settled into a mid-market FA outlook where they sign old 1B to shorter big money deals, and sign extensions for injury prone pitchers. Those haven't worked out, either. The FA contracts that we've been successful with have been extensions to younger guys like Altuve, Bregman, and Yordan, and short term deals with Verlander. But mostly I think it's been pitching development and club-controlled star hitting talent that has resulted in sustained success.
Certainly winning matters - just not more than money. But if the money was equal, players would certainly pick their best situation to win (or live or whatever else they prioritize). But routinely, when players leave the Astros, fans mock them for ruining their legacies or going to losing franchises, etc, etc. These players are showing that they can do both - they can go get the money and still end up on winning franchises. So the idea that they need to take less pay to win hasn't proven true for them. And I'd argue in Correa's case, fans appreciate him more today than they would have if he'd stayed the last several years too.
Biggest sources of the Astros success: A savvy owner who embraced a full rebuild and supported top 5 payrolls while showing an elite skill in choosing baseball executives. A GM who executed a full rebuild that resulted in the additions of 3 superstar players thru the draft (Correa, Bregman, Tucker) and several star players via trade (Verlander, Cole, Greinke, Yordan, etc.). A scouting and player development apparatus that has provided a steady stream of controllable, affordable, quality starting pitching. Luck: Altuve’s development, Springer’s development, the league allowing Houston to escape the 2014 draft pickle they got themselves into, the Yordan trade, any number of other things that could’ve gone differently.
When was the last 10+ year contract that completely worked out? ARod with the Yankees? Nope, looked that one up, only got 5 good years out of that. Pujols was about the same for the Angels. Cole with the 9 year deal probably not gonna end up working out.
You wouldnt have to argue it, just look at how Lance is treated with his unavailability. Fans are fickle without production.
Then you get a situation like Hampton, who chose Colorado over the Mets because of the Denver school system being a deciding factor. The wife won out on that battle. Mets may have won the WS in 2000 with him.
We will get a movie made about this diminutive giant one day, won't we? Altuve would be an incredible story if he just had a 10 year decent career. I think it's the most unforseen baseball career in history.
When you sign those deals, you understand the latter half of the contract is likely not going to age well. You're hoping to get a surplus of production compared to the cost in the first half or so of the deal. If Aaron Judge keeps his current production for a couple more seasons, it doesn't really matter if he sucks during the back half.
10 year contracts aren't meant to get 10 good years out of a player - they are meant to underpay the player early and spread that salary to the later years, so getting 5-7 years of elite play is generally the hope. That said, the vast majority of 10+ year contracts are still in-process. But of the ones completed or close to: Worked (3): A-Rod-1, Jeter, Votto Didn't Work (3): A-Rod-2, Pujols, Stanton Reasonable (2): Cano (surprisingly), Machado (but complicated by opt-out and then signing a new deal) Any others have the majority of their contract to go, I believe. Cole's more than earned his contract thus far but it will depend on how he ages the rest of the way.
