Use all cash on framber And to me , Correa at 2b and paredes at 3b is probably the better defensive combination if paredes recovers over the off-season . There's a nice symbolism for Correa taking over for altuve Anywho , our 2026 infield looks stacked . Especially if walker can keep up his recent numbers and regress to the mean of his last couple of years in AZ I know there are some myers fanboys and I do appreciate his awesome season . I feel like I can't count on it again. Can Matthews try CF I'm so tired of noodle arms in the OF Cams is OK , but not truly plus from what I've seen We were spoiled with marisnick and springer and reddick
I’m not going 5 years because that’s one year behind what’s daily foreseeable instead I want to talk about 2028 (but I think our window is open at least through 2030 now just don’t know with who/ but trust Dana and the boys to draft, sign and develop). 2028 lineup is 4 year away and already makes sense with more or less proven major league players: Diaz, Correa (I bet he moves to first), Matthews, short stop, 3B, Altuve, Melton, smith, Alvarez. how many teams can say- they are pretty confident they will have 7 average or better players 4 years out? Without it being speculation or the like? Arms: Brown, Ullola, Arrighetti, blanco, Wesneski, blubaugh, Hader, Sousa, dubin, king I have zero doubt the Astros will continue to develop pitchers. Having 7 guys you can justifiably count on that play every day and 10 arms that seem like good bets (to the extent that any pitchers are) is amazing.
A couple things: 1) Great work, a point I’m making elsewhere as well. Also- 2027 is almost as set in stone as 2026- it’s really awesome 2) if Paredes looks ready Or Matthews breaks out/ I expect them to trade Dubon possibly. No need to pay him Arb 4 at 8-9M when you have Urias- that will give us more money to play either Chas is almost a definite trade or DFA. If I’m right about that here you go (salary cap numbers) Benefits-22 Diaz-5 Walker-20 Altuve-25 Peña- 9 Paredes-12 Correa- 24 Alvarez-17 Myers-7 Smith-1 Urias-5 Sanchez-7 Matthews or melton- 1M not in lineup- backup catcher. total of benefits and non arms guys: 155 arms: Hader-20 LMJ- 17 Javier-13 Brown- 7.5 Abreu-7 Garcia-4 Okert-2 Sousa-2 Minimum: 1M each Arrighetti, Ullola, blanco, Wesneski, Dubin, King, Blubaugh, Walter, Gordon, France arms- 80M (Wesneski and blanco get their 1M on IL but some of the other guys are Prorated on the 1M section total: 235 CBT- 244. I might have gotten some of those arb numbers a little off but directionally they are correct. DFA Chas, trade Dubon- gibe Caratini 1/9 and you are basically dead balls on the cap and shouldn’t need to do anything at the deadline. I will say this- I don’t think we need a ToR guy but if we did- this would be my plan… Trade Melton and LMJ for a mid level prospect (tell LMJ it’s either that or DFA). Melton has enough surplus value someone would eat 1/17 from Lance. Trade Yordan for a top 25 ish- 2 top 76-100 prospects if you can get them. Plus a couple lotto tickets. that would open up 35M for your top of the rotation guy and it would be a way to sort of even out your holes for 2028 and beyond. We didn’t need him this year to be the best team in the AL. this only works if you can get that level of prospects if he comes back and hits. I wouldn’t do this, but if I needed a TOR guy and could make that kind of deal that’s they way I’d try to do it.
Did a deeper dive on this and updated the 5 year outlook for after the trade deadline. One big takeaway is that HOUSTON SHOULD AVOID LARGE CONTRACTS, EVEN EXTENSIONS. They have 7 guaranteed contracts on their books for next season (Correa, Altuve, Alvarez, Javier, McCullers, Hader, and Walker) and at least 4 of them are underwater, with the other 3 probably underwater as well. That's after shedding 3 bad contracts that ended in 2025 (Montero, Abreu, Pressly). Going forward, Houston should focus ALL of its resources on investing in the farm system and acquiring players via trade. This front office and owner have proven they are incredibly shrewd in trades and waiver claims and player development, but bloody awful at valuing players for long term guaranteed contracts. On to the year by year breakdown: 2025: C: Diaz, Caratini; 2.6 fwar, $7M (AAV) IF: Walker, Altuve, Pena, Paredes, Dubon, Urias, Matthews, Correa, others; ~18 fwar, ~$92M (includes dead money for Paredes, Abreu, and Rodgers) OF: Meyers, Alvarez, Smith, Melton, Sanchez, McCormick, others; ~6 fwar, ~$25M SP: Valdez, Blanco, Brown, Garcia, Arrighetti, Walter, Gusto, Gordon, McCullers, Wesneski, others; ~14 fwar, ~$53M RP: Hader, Abreu, Sousa, King, Okert, others; ~7 fwar, ~$52M (includes $14M owed to Pressly and Montero) mlb.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Jacob Melton, Brice Matthews, Zach Dezenzo, AJ Blubaugh, Colton Gordon, Shay Whitcomb, Ryan Gusto, Kenedy Corona, Miguel Ullola, Pedro Leon) Projections: 45 fwar, $228M (26-man total); 88-94 wins Summary: The Astros are right in line with the total war/win projection I put out in April, but they've gotten there much differently than expected. Disastrous seasons from Alvarez, Walker, and Diaz were offset by huge seasons from Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Dubon, Brown, and the bullpen. They have only 2 meaningful pending free agents (Valdez and Caratini), so the future is bright and the run should continue into 2026. Cam Smith's emergence appeared to throw open the window wide into 2028 and beyond, but his recent slump has cast some doubt on that. Houston revamped their roster at the deadline, adding 3 controllable everyday players, without giving up any prospects who factored into the long term outlook. The Astros are firmly in contention, but an injury to Hunter Brown or Framber Valdez would be devastating, as the lineup and rotation are deep but short on superstars relative to 2017-2022. The Astros have a chance to win the world series this season. 2026: Free Agent losses: Caratini, Valdez, Rodgers, Neris MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Ethan Pecko, Alimber Santa, Jackson Nezuh, Jose Fleury, Michael Knorr, Alex Santos II, Zach Cole Arbitration class: Diaz, Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Dubon, Urias, Sanchez, Garcia, Brown, Okert, Abreu, McCormick Projections: 41 fWAR, $207M payroll (26 man AAV), 85-95 wins Summary: The Astros return a 10-11 position players with 3 win potential, but most of whom carry a lot of risk. 2025 introduced a lot of uncertainty for Altuve, Alvarez, Walker, Diaz, and Paredes, while adding expected performance from Pena, Meyers, Matthews, Smith, Correa, Sanchez, and Melton. They have $132M in projected AAV payroll for the position player side, so they could trade from that depth to address the rotation. although it may not be necessary. Losing Caratini is meaningful, but as the only pending position player who contributed this season, that's a minor hole, and I personaly am pretty high on Cesar Salazar as a good backup C. On the pitching side, losing Framber Valdez is a huge loss. The performance of Javier, Arrighetti, Walter, and the other SP depth will be a big thing to watch over the remainder of 2025, as it will give a much better idea of how big of a hole Framber is leaving in the rotation. The Astros project to enter the offseason ~$10M under the CBT threshold, and could easily clear out another ~$5M to $10M with non-tenders that woldn't affect the outlook, so they will have at least some money to spend, but not enough to go out and buy a ToR SP. It's worth noting that they project to have a big group of SP ready to contribute next season, many of whom have very high ceilings, so the answer could come internally, or they could use those prospects to trade for a ToR SP. The bullpen saw breakouts from Sousa, King, Dubin, and Okert, and those 4 along with Abreu and Hader have that group looking stellar next season. Overall, the Astros are poised to fully contend in 2026. It's also worth noting that Houston should have a full complement of draft picks for the first time in a long time, and has a small chance to have extra picks via PPI and QO. 2027: Free Agent losses: Dubon, Urias, McCormick, McCullers, Okert, Abreu MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Walker Janek, Anderson Brito, Joseph Sullivan, Bryce Mayer, Jancel Villarroel, Will Bush, Alejandro Nunez, Caden Powell, Ryan Forcucci, Luis Baez, Lucas Spence, Kenni Gomez, James Hicks, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., Juan Bello, Cole Hertzler, Parker Smith Arbitration Class: Diaz, Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Sanchez, Brown, Sousa, King Projections: 40 fWAR, $202M payroll, 84-94 wins Summary: the good news is they have a relatively low impact free agent class, with Dubon and Abreu being the main losses, both of which should be pretty easily replaced by the farm system. The main risk here is age-related decline from Walker, Correa, and Altuve, along with questions in the rotation that carry over from 2026. Again, Houston should get some support from the farm systema and will have the payroll flexibility to take on at least 1 meaningful contract, although not a very big one. Bottom line is that they still project to contend. 2028: Free Agent losses: Walker, Paredes, Pena, Meyers, Javier MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: none (although likely some 2025-2026 draft picks will start arriving by then) Projections: 30 fWAR, $160M payroll, 75-90 wins (lower range if they don't spend, upper range if they spend to the CBT threshold) Summary: Here's where the questions start to creep in. Staying optimistic, they control a big group of players who could be stars: Alvarez, Altuve, Correa, Diaz, Smith, Matthews, Melton, Brown, Arrighetti, Hader, Walter...and the farm could produce quality regulars by then in guys like Janek, Frey, Neyens, Forcucci, Kevin Alvarez, future draft picks, etc. But it's also easy to see a pretty pessimistic outlook where the bulk of those players have succumbed to either age-related decline, injury, or prospect bust, leaving the roster with Hunter Brown, Cam Smith, and 4 underwater contracts surrounded by a bunch of nobodies. A rebuild in 2028 is possible, using Brown and Smith to headline a farm rebuild, dumping Alvarez and Hader to save money and just letting Altuve and Correa play out their contracts and sign autographs. If they are poised to contend, they'll have ~$60M to play with if Crane is stil willing to field max payrolls. There's just a ton of uncertainty once this roster loses 4 of it's current starting position players to free agency and everyone else has aged another 3 years. 2029: Free Agent losses: Diaz, Alvarez, Brown, Hader MLB.com Top 30 Prospects ready: Kevin Alvarez (future draft picks will start arrivign by then as well) Projections: 27 fWAR, $97M, 70-95 wins (lower range if they don't spend, upper range if they spend to the CBT threshold) Summary: Altuve, Correa, Smith will be there on offense, Arrighetti will be on the pitching staff. Aside from that fringey core, there's pure uncertainty. A rebuild started in 2028 would set 2029 up as a trough, projecting to 70 wins and tanking; if prospects pan out such that another 3-4 guys have become legit stars, and/or Correa and Altuve have aged better than expected, they very well could still contend and 2029 could be a magical season where Crane goes all in to try to get Altuve another ring before he retires. If they do contend, they'll have a boatload of payroll freed up.
I think this trade deadline gave us the opportunity to compete into the 2030’s (though we might not of course). 2029 sees Altuve on the decline, (Correa if we went him) but Arrighetti, Walter, Blanco, Ullola and whatever other pitchers we conjure along the way. I’m really not worried about pitching. offensively I would expect Cam to be a tentpole for the team and we also should expect contributions from Matthews and Melton. That’s not a horrible starting point being able to hold onto those guys. The big news, though, for me is what you pointed out about 26 and 27 being pretty loaded. That essentially means we should not have to trade major pieces away at the deadline which will help calm things down and help us graduate players. Also- we will have a ton of money to spend.
Adding Correa’s contract and Alvarez seeing his value drop precipitously were not good developments for the 2026-2028 financial outlook. But still, there is only 1 guaranteed contract after 2028 and none after 2029, and that means any financial constraints should be pretty manageable. The 2028 season is when the big league roster starts to reflect Dana Brown’s player development acumen in a much more substantive way. He has reshaped the roster dramatically from before he arrived, but he was working under some pretty tight constraints (maxed out payroll, aging players, barren farm). If he’s as good at finding value as he’s shown, those out years could prove me wildly pessimistic.
As part of the exercise of putting together estimates for a 5 year outlook, I did a Pareto style analysis of the current organizational roster against the Astros organizational roster going into 2017. I won’t post all of the inane details, but here are some notes on that comparison: The real difference in surplus value boils down to about 3-4 players from 2017 that the 2025 roster doesn’t have a match for: Correa, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker; you can add Jose Altuve in there as well depending on how optimistic/pessimistic you want to be about 2025.. Going into 2017, Correa, Bregman, and Altuve were considered elite talents and they were all under control for 3+ seasons, with Correa and Bregman both under control for at least 5 seasons. 2025 Astros don’t have those kind of controllable elite talents, unless Carlos Correa is somehow able to make his 30s replicate his 20s and both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are able to be top 25 players in all of MLB for the remainder of their contracts, which is incredibly unlikely. Going into 2017, Kyle Tucker was an elite prospect in the MLB top 25 and a former top 5 overall draft pick. Houston’s farm system doesn’t have a talent like that in their system; maybe Xavier Neyens will prove to be a severely underrated draft pick. There were several players the organization either added or developed during 2017 that were key to their golden era, but that going into 2017 no one would have mentioned. Charlie Morton was a 3rd tier free agent who pitched like an ace for Houston. Justin Verlander was acquired at the 2017 deadline. Yordan Alvarez was a 2nd tier bat only prospect in the lower minors. Framber Valdez was an enigmatic pitching prospect in High A with no pedigree. There were a dozen other prospects in Houston’s system outside their top 5 prospects who went on to post at least one really good season in the majors, including Teoscar Hernandez, Jake Rogers, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Bryan Abreu. Many of those players were not even ranked in Houston’s top 30 prospects going into 2017. It’s impossible to say if Houston has those kind of underrated prospects in their system, but history suggests they do. The 2017 Astros had a lot more payroll flexibility than the 2025 Astros. We didn’t know that at the time, since coming out of the tanking era there were major questions about whether Jim Crane would support large payrolls. Those have been answered in resounding fashion, but unfortunately the Astros have compiled a half dozen contracts that are now underwater. So it’s safe to say the 2025 Astros have less margin for error than the 2017 Astros did, in terms of talent acquisition and performance luck. The shortest path to Houston replicating their success from 2017-2022 over 2025-2030 would be: Xavier Neyens=Kyle Tucker, Kevin Alvarez=Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa plays as an all star level performer thru age 35, and 2 other unknown young players become elite talents.
There is an element of hindsight there, since none of those prospects panned out, but, respectively: Anderson Brito, Miguel Ullola, and Jacob Melton. Martes is the only one who there is a reasonable quibble with, since he was considered an elite elite prospect at that time, and Houston doesn’t have a prospect on that level. Fisher and Perez were fringe top 100 prospects with widely varying opinions within the industry.
Martes was PED-boosted, which may have played a factor.... then Tommy John? Had high hopes for him considering the hype... here's his Baseball Prospectus recaps: Year Book Comments Buy now 2020 It's hard to believe just three years ago Martes was the Astros No. 1 prospect. He toiled in the bullpen in 2017 before losing most of 2018 and 2019 to elbow discomfort as a prerequisite to Tommy John surgery. He's thrown just 25 innings over the last two seasons. Still, he's only 24 years old with the fastball-slider-curveball-changeup mix to be a legitimate starter in the big leagues. The only problem is the Astros might be too good to let him fail as he builds back his strength, relegating him to the bullpen for the time being. 2019 Sometimes the path to Tommy John surgery goes quickly—a pitcher starts shaking his arm out on the mound, the MRI reveals a torn UCL, and surgery is scheduled for a week or two later. More often, it meanders on for some time. A pitcher will initially present with elbow discomfort, forearm tightness, or a flexor issue. The team will claim there is no structural damage, but he'll still be out for weeks or months. He'll come back for a little bit after rehabbing it and probably won't pitch all that well or reach his initial level. Then another MRI reveals the torn UCL. Martes started this cycle early on in the season when he reported elbow discomfort, and ended it in mid-August with Tommy John surgery, hitting the usual notes in between. He might pop up for a token appearance in 2019, but he's going to miss most or all of the season. Losing two seasons of development like this strikes a cruel blow to hopes that he might stick in the rotation. 2018 Last year's no. 1 Astros prospect was the season's minor disappointment. By spending much of the season toiling in the bullpen without distinguishing himself, Martes has lost both his prospect status and some of his shine. But after rocketing through the minors in a manner befitting the name of his franchise, he lost control more literally than figuratively. He walked plenty of hitters in both Fresno and the majors, where his new status was "garbage-time reliever." The season wasn't a complete wash—he did maintain his ability to chuck his slider for a swing and miss almost one out of every five times—but now he'll need a good long look in the Triple-A rotation to determine what kind of pitcher he'll become. Will he rise to the top of a rotation or fall to the back of the bullpen? 2017 Martes has been a quick riser, reaching Double-A at just age 19 in 2015. In a full crack at the Texas League in 2016, Martes sure didn't look like he was more than four years younger than his average opponent. He struck out over a batter per inning behind a nasty fastball-curveball combo and a changeup that continues to develop. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds with what one BP prospect analyst called a "thick middle," there are questions about his body's ability to handle a full starter's workload. His fastball-curveball combo could play up enough in the bullpen to make him a front-line closer, but if he can keep refining his changeup, Martes has a future in the top half of Houston's starting rotation. 2016 Martes might win the award for Most Improved Astro of 2015. After getting thrown into the Jarred Cosart deal, Martes was seen as a stuff-first prospect who needed a lot of refinement. Mechanical changes boosted velocity on his fastball, and he can now bring it in the mid-to-high 90s with late life. He's also working on a change resembling average, which will nicely complement his already-devastating curveball. He'll only be 20 in 2016, so his arrival is probably still more than a year away as he develops the stamina to match his stuff. If Houston makes another playoff run, however, they have a potential weapon for the late innings if they need it.
Normally don’t post in this thread but wanted to say appreciate all the work you do on this snake. Lots of good info
Now you are just being mean on Ullola. I’m going to spike the ball and take a victory lap when he’s getting ROY votes in 26 and Cy Young votes in 28. Melton as fisher seems about right to me. Hope if I’m right on 1 and wrong on the other Melton is the one I get wrong.
