The difference in Dubon’s expect vs actual wOBA in his career has been minimal. In his 6 season before this year, he’s outperformed 4 times and underperformed 2 times. I’d need a pretty convincing breakdown to say that’s more than statistical noise. The actual production between Dubon and Correa has been close this season, but the expected future production is nowhere near close.
As long as we're dreamcasting, I'd like to see them go after a big fish, instead of the small moves around the edges. Ketel Marte, Matt Olson, Jarren Duran, Steven Kwan. I think this lineup really needs the legit middle of the order bat they thought they were getting with the Walker and Abreu contracts.
Any yet somehow Dubon is up 1.9 > 0.2 bWAR and 2.2 > 1.1 fWAR, both discrepencies based on defense. Is Correa's wOBA (which is not good, just better than Dubon) worth the difference in salary and defensive impact? I'm not sure he's the impact bat some are hoping for. 2024 Carlos would have been (the half season he played), but not this year so far.
We will see on Mullins, I think if the cost isn't prohibitive that the Astros will try to add him. He is someone that Brown likes quite a bit.
This is shaping up as MUCH less of a seller’s market than previous years. Most of the teams on the fence (Twins, Snakes, Rays, Guards) are in a selling posture, and even a few teams who should be buying (Cardinals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox) and positioned as playing both sides. Hell even the Yankees are sending signals that they will be only moderate buyers. The AL is wide open and the Jays, Tigers, and Astros should be as aggressive as possible. I don’t understand the Royals acting as buyers and if the Angels don’t sell they are stupid but it won’t surprise anyone. All-in buyers (10): Jays, Astros, Tigers, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants Moderate buyers (8): Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, Rangers, Angels, Reds, Cardinals, Padres Moderate sellers (5): Rays, Guardians, Orioles, Braves, Diamondbacks All-in sellers (6): White Sox, A’s, Marlins, Nats, Pirates, Rockies
When I did it the only 2 guys I could find who I would buy are Altuve and Paredes- that's both extreme pull side fly ball and the icebox exacerbates that. I think it's possible that Yainer isn't as unlucky as the numbers might suggest as this is year 3 of him underperforming his expected. I would want to see how this season plays out before I hazard any strong opinion on that thought.
Many times, when teams make trades, the players they get are very different than the first-half version of that player. I remember the Josh Bell trade a few years ago or, in the Astros' case, Mancini and Vazquez. All proved awful in their new environments. I don't have any particular data on it, but it seems to happen a lot and more so with elite players - I'm not sure if it's the process of adjusting or being in a new environment, or being suddenly thrown into a higher-pressure situation, or what it is. I don't know what Correa would be in Houston, but it's there's a decent chance it won't be similar to first-half this year, for whatever its worth (could be better, could be worse). But I think at least with Correa, you don't have to worry about adapting to a new situation or dealing with pressure. He would fit right in more easily in that respect, so I think there's a better chance you get the best version of him. That said, it may still be mediocre. The other plus with Correa is that he's not a rental. There's a decent chance this year is a bust regardless of trades if Yordan and others don't come back. In that case, at least you still got value for future years instead of just throwing away prospects for no longer term benefit.
The market is fluid - and I expect the Rangers to try and be active - but I think you are right. At this point it looks like a buyers market compared to the last handful of years. I am curious to see what the Guardians do now. Kwan is a good but not great player, but someone may over pay for him.
Having Altuve in LF and Correa at 3B certainly sets the tone of this organization as far as selflessness is concerned. Every player would need to check themselves at the door. Why is our FO so against Cam getting reps at 3B this year??
Out of all the position players available, he is my favorite. Reminds me of that David Ekstein prick. fouls off a hundred pitches and goes the opposite field for a seeing eye single. Hate him on other teams but would love him on mine.
I get that. And I like him too, just not much more than Melton or Trammell over 1/3 of a season. If you tell me Mullins significantly outperforms Melton and Trammell over 162g, or a multi-year period I think its very likely. If you tell me Mullins outperforms Melton and Trammell for the rest of this season, I think its 50/50. Maybe 60/40 over Trammell. But IMO infield is a much better bet with higher likelihood of positive impact.
Could really use a guy that can get you a tough AB and come through with a knock with guys on-base with a simplified approach.
Problem with declaring this year a buyers market is that most of the potential impact players that could be dealt are not rentals, so they don't have to be moved if the team doesn't get what they truly want for them The rental market isn't strong
Ok- I think I would do this, but would Cleveland? Yordan Alvarez for Carlos Santana Cade Smith Kwan if Yordan spent all 4 statements in his contract healthy and ready to go I’d feel like a total fool. If he spends 1 of the next 4 healthy in September I’d feel like a fool for not doing it.
Be sure a clause gets our money back voids the trade in the event these guys are part of the Cleveland Guradian gambling spree 2025.
Selling low on Yordan is idiocy and if he’s hurt worse than expected the other team won’t trade for him after seeing the medicals.
If some of the posters (cough Wulaw) on here were a GM, then someone would definitely overpay for Kwan.
If it were, that would get sniffed out when Cleveland (which is a really smart, well-run organization) rifled through Yordan’s medicals, at which point Kwan would get swapped out for like Lane Thomas. “Let’s trade our former superstar DH who we know has a career-threatening injury to another team for their healthy controllable star player” would be cool, but it’s pure fantasy.
