With no trades- positions where we are probably weak at: C, 1B, 2b or LF, 3B (probably), DH, CF I think it's a certainty that Pena will be back, that's why I left off SS. Positions where it's entirely possible that we don't have a credible MLB player in that spot: LF or 2B, CF. Positions where we have a floor of ok and a ceiling of ok 3B (Dubon) Positions that could be fixed and how: LF (or 2B)- Melton or Matthews becomes a reliable stud (hopefully both!) and it's a mirror Altuve platoon or they both play every day b/c Yordan is out and Altuve is at DH. CF- Meyers gets healthy and back to what he was doing (which should be an 8/9 hitter since it's a lot of empty calorie singles- but damn I'd be happy with that). DH- Yordan gets healhty. Absolute best case scenario DIaz/Vic the dick, Walker, Altuve, Pena, Paredes, Melton, Meyers, Smith, Alvarez Realistic Diaz/Vic, Walker, Altuve, Pena, Dubon, Melton or Matthews (wherever Altuve isn't playing), Trammell, Smith, Yainer/Victor That "realistic" lineup is 7 bats that should be average or better hitters (2 of them are a little broken right now in Walker/Diaz) with Trammell and Melton/Matthews being eh. Putting this down Joe ****ing Espada just playing our best hitters everyday would be valuable but holy **** Pena coming back and Smith deciding not to slam into the rookie wall at 100 MPH is the difference between this team missing the playoffs and having a punchers chance.
I wonder what a trade for Lowe/Rasmussen would look like? I'm guessing something like Matthews/Brito/Pecko/Janek. I would bite my cheek and do this deal. What would the cost of Osuna be?
Give me this Pena SS Altuve LF Lowe 1B Osuna DH Cam RF Walker 1B Diaz C Caratini also Dubon 3B Melton CF
I really like the potential of Melton and Matthews working as a tandem at LF/2B to play wherever Altuve doesn’t. I am also comfortable not addressing C, as Caratini and Diaz are more than adequate for their position. The Astros are married to their current starters at 1B, SS, and RF. Assuming Alvarez is expected back at DH, that leaves 3B and CF. I am low key getting very excited about Taylor Trammell. Yes his BABIP is destined to come down, but his xwOBA is a very very good .336, he has posted elite avg exit velocity, barrel rate, bat speed, chase %, and hard hit %. (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/taylor-trammell-666211?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb). He offers plus value on the bases and is an adequate defensive CF. His swing and miss in the zone very much limits his potential but at this point I want Houston to continue playing him unless/until Meyers comes back, and I don’t view players like Luis Robert or Cedric Mullins as meaningful upgrades. Right now Houston giving up big prospects to add Suarez and Mullins is my worst case realistic scenario. So that leaves 3B as the most glaring hole in the lineup (again, assuming Alvarez is coming back this season and Paredes isn’t). I don’t want Suarez (bad defender, high strikeout streaky hitter) and there are not any other obvious solutions. Tough situation but the more time passes, the more it makes sense to me for Houston to bring back Correa if the deal is at all reasonable, even if it means Crane puts severe restrictions on payroll over the next 3-4 seasons to make up for going over this season. A deadline haul of Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, and Charlie Morton (without giving up Melton or Arrighetti or Kevin Alvarez) is my current dream moderately realistic scenario. A controllable ToR SP instead of Morton would be more ideal but doesn’t feel realistic if Houston is also getting Correa.
That’s fine but it commits to having Dubon in the everyday playoff lineup and if anything happens with Pena you’re looking at Short and Dubon in the lineup every playoff game. Yikes.
Why you can't compete with AI? Or videos laying out the timeline? Or article I presented? Quit wasting my time peon I googled,"Articles of Astros negotiations with Kyle Tucker in December 2024" First thing I saw was AI's response. Copied and pasted. Highlighted Astros avoided arbitration. Goes with my recollection during the time. Man up baby, take the L sissy
This seems blasphemous given what Carlos means to this franchise, but are we sure Correa is better than Dubon this season? Dubie has him beat by 2 OPS+ (so virtually identical) and leads in bWAR 1.9 to 0.2. The WAR difference because Carlos has been an awful defender this season at SS. Might Correa be a better defender at 3B? Possibly. But it's a position he's literally never played in MLB, the minors, anywhere. Meanwhile, one has 100m+ left on his contract while the other is making peanuts. I think we take bats wherever we can get them. I don't think this trash lineup is so good that we're limited to one position worthy of upgrading.
What time frame in years control would we land these incoming trade targets? Multiple years or half year rentals? W Castro? Correa? TBay starting pitcher (sp)? And whatsup w Decenzo and his hand capsule injury? Return 2025 or 2026? He and Arighetti and Yordan all hands. Ugh
If you're trading for Correa, its in part for whatever value you believe he has in the clubhouse, whatever value he brings to the franchise (how much new revenue does he bring in to help offset his salary), and most importantly for fans, his postseason success. A lot of these randos that filling in right now for the Astros are functional players. Dubon has the same numbers as Correa - but in the playoffs where teams actually look at film and gameplan for or around each player, you want Correa at the plate over Dubon. That's not to say he's worth trading for, but what superstars in general bring to the table is that they put extra pressure on a pitcher. Bases loaded, game on the line in the playoffs, Yordan and his 0.650 OPS are going to be much more problematic for an opponent than Taylor Trammell and his 0.800 OPS.
Literally everyone is telling you that you are wrong and no one is backing you up… It takes a special kind of moron to keep going.
Correa xwOBA: .336 Dubon xwOBA: .283 It’s not even close, even diminished/injured Correa is a far better hitter than peak Doobie.
This deadline for the Astros is one of the hardest in all of baseball. The Astros have had a very successful first 100 games, but the injuries are severe and no one has a definitive idea of who and when players are coming back. If the Astros were 5 behind the Mariners, then they could deal several guys for real value - but they are in the drivers seat, but aren't going to stay there without moves. The Astros are almost forced to make moves - I think the types of moves will be telling. If they add someone like Mullins and a secondary piece and minimal cost, then that tells us what the team thinks of the remainder of the season and going forward. There are players available that can fill a lot of holes, but right now we don't even know the long term holes for the rest of the season. As for Correa - when he is healthy he is a superstar, when he is hurt, he is borderline replacement. Adding him would be a major risk and bold, but - maybe it pays off and Correa has a 900 OPS the rest of this season. Correa and either Paredes or Alvarez coming back is nasty, and Pena was hitting at an elite level as well.
I think they really can only get 1 hitter. Not only is the pool of candidates shallow, so so is that of Astros trade assets. So, that player needs to address the most important spot that is least likely to be filled internally. I'm hopeful that Pena, Alvarez, and Melton will be back. I am worried that Yordan may be the same early 2025 version, but he will play and nobody will know unless he does. I am very dubious of Paredes, Meyers, and Dezenzo returning. Diaz/Caratini, Walker, Altuve, Pena, Smith, and Alvarez are designated starters. Matthews, Melton, Trammell, and Dubon have all proven to be reasonable if not dependable or ideal substitutes. They are in line to fill out the lineup without upgrades. Matthews and Melton have big offensive upside, but K issues which are magnified in the postseason. However, they both are plus defenders and base runners/stealers. Trammell should never face LHP and Dubon should never face RHP. They are both also more valuable on the bench. This roster also has a serious lack of slug which is very important in the postseason- its simply harder to stack together consecutive productive PAs. A guy who can provide extra base hits and play 3B, allowing Dubon to move to the bench is the best option for this team. Hitting left handed and being able to play 2B too or instead would be secondary positives. If Meyers doesn't return then this team either needs a RH hitter to pair with Melton or Tammell in CF or have Dubon free to do it, because Hummel simply can't be the best option to play LF vs LHP if Altuve is at 2B.
Dubon's actual wOBA has outperformed his xwOBA the last three years to the point that I think there may be a pattern, in the same way that Altuve and Paredes outperform their statcast metrics. Part of the difference in value may be that Dubon (66th percentile sprint speed) is much faster than Correa (26th percentile). Whatever it is, the actual production on the field is in fact very close between the two, regardless of what the theoretical numbers say.
I no longer like Mullins for this team. Trammell and Melton fit his role well enough that other spots should be a priority.
