Yup and that is the rub, the Astros are not giving any information on Alvarez and the people around the team are saying privately they don’t know. So it’s hard to predict what Crane will do. I was told that the FO has laid out the numerous possibilities and likely cost and it’s up to Crane how far he is willing to go financially, prospect wise and likely scenarios from an injury perspective. The club has also made it pretty clear on the field the last 2-3 weeks that losing Paredes may have been too much without moves. I do know that what Brown wants to do may not 100% align with what Crane wants to do - Brown wants players under control beyond this year if the cost is elite minor league talent.
These arguments about Tucker are getting stupid. Crane wanted to extend Tucker. Brown and Click both tried. Tucker never wanted to sign an extension. The Astros should have put that energy towards Pena and Valdez and Meyers, but that’s besides the point. The Astros did not go into the 2025 off season trying to trade Tucker. They intended to let him play out the season. However, with all the Soto nonsense, a few teams like NY and Chicago were aggressive and offered premium prices. Brown played them off each other and demanded a lot from NY- Chicago upped their offer, Brown asked for Shaw knowing the Cubs wouldn’t move him, and Cubs countered with Smith (who Brown wanted the most). That is the reason Tucker was traded - and it was an excellent trade for the Astros. Paredes and Smith both have all star upside and are under team control. After the Tucker talks started, the Astros offered Framber in exchange for a massive trade and no one was willing to pay Astros price so Framber is an Astro. There is no conspiracy theory or Astros not wanting to pay Tucker’s arbitration salary - Astros wanted to extend him but were not going to pass up a massive over pay by Cubs for the chance to out bid everyone in FA for Tucker - a guy that views baseball as a job and not a passion.
The Astros trading Framber at this point would take massive balls and would be widely criticized through out baseball for sometime. The White Sox sold their best players while in first place like 20 years ago and it is still not forgotten.
Yancy Diaz and Castro. Keep Framber. See if that sets the table. Or Correa n Castro. Or Yandy D and Brandon Lowe. We may have options in the pipeline.
My guess is they’ve given Crane 3 options: Trade for Correa and go way over the tax. Trade for Suarez and give up big prospects for a rental, but maximize 2025 and stay under the CBT. Trade for Lowe and give up big prospects for a controllable player while staying under the tax, but don’t add the best hitter for this season. I don’t want Suarez. Hes bad on defense, shown he can fall apart, and is gonna cost a lot in prospects.
Daily hypothetical with <4 days left: Astros get: 3B Eugenio Suarez SP Merrill Kelly $3M Diamondbacks get: P Miguel Ullola P Ethan Pecko P AJ Blubaugh P Bryce Mayer OF Chas McCormick Expected playoff roster: SS Pena 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Suarez 1B Walker C Caratini RF Smith CF Trammell LF Melton Bench: Matthews, Dubon, Diaz, Hummel SP: Framber, Brown, Kelly, Javier RP: Hader, Abreu, King, Sousa, Okert, McCullers, Garcia, Arrighetti, Gusto It’s a ton of pitching talent to give up for a couple of rentals, and I’m not sure that would even be enough. I honestly don’t really like this trade for the Astros. Suarez is getting too much hype going into the deadline and he’s gonna get a haul. But this trade improves Houston’s team a lot and keeps them under the tax.
I don’t want Geno either unless the price ends up not being as high as expected. It’s not even his defense that worries me - the guy strikes out way too much and is streaky as hell. There’s a decent chance you get him and he ends up being bad offensively these last two months. Given he is bad defensively, that would be an absolute disaster.
Because this thread gets a little repetitive, here’s my Monday AM take — trades I’d like to see, but from former Astros seasons (and not just cherry-picking the best, or most ‘expensive’ seasons): 2012 Chris Johnson (could low key rake) and 2009-10 Michael Bourn. Add Wandy or another high quality innings eater and get this 3rd ring for Altuve. I could be talked into Vinny Castillo, Kent, or Keppinger too.
Ha, if we’re going down that road, give me 2004 Carlos Beltran and 1998 Randy Johnson. Probably 2 of the top 5 best rental trades in history.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-makes-some-deadline-trades-2025-edition/ Fangraphs hypothetical trade article suggests Houston flip Whitcomb to Cleveland for a prospect in the lower minors (2023 1st rd pick Ralphy Velazquez. I would be thrilled with this trade for Houston but don’t consider it very realistic.
Yeah - there are other pieces (centerfielder) and various versions, some of them involving the adding of a pretty good starting pitcher under team control for 2026 - but basically these are the scenarios. Supposedly Brown is not a big fan of option two if it involves moving a select group of prospects. Honestly, I don't think that we can really have too strong an opinion without knowing the injury status of some of these guys. I agree with you that Suarez is not my choice. I would probably strongly look at the Rays deal for Lowe and a starter under team control another season and then try to add Mullins and Ozuna. That gives high upside in 2025 and at least you get a starter in 2026.
A deadline haul of Lowe, Rasmussen, Mullins, and Ozuna would be the biggest collection of talent Houston has added at the deadline in at least the last 15 years. I don’t have much hope Houston could make that happen but it would be awesome and I wouldn’t really care which prospects they gave up outside of maybe not wanting to give up Kevin Alvarez.
It really depends on the cost I guess and how far down the hole Crane is willing to go. Ozuna shouldn't cost much at all, and I wouldn't expect Mullins to be terribly expensive. The real cost would be in a deal for Lowe and one of the Rays starters. Last year the Rays were very demanding with the Astros in trade talks, same in 2023. I would assume that will be true in 2025 - but I think some of it depends on which pitcher you target.
I might be in the minority, but my thought process is as follows: Out of all the people injured that are everyday starters only Pena, and potentially Meyers are league average players. We have no idea when Issac will be back. does not sound good. With Alverez there is a good chance he is never what he once was. The hand injury is nothing new. Out of all the pitchers coming back do we really know the quality we are going to get the rest of the season. McCullers is what he was but lesser in his return. There is no way anyone can say these guys are going to carry us to the promise land. Although I have higher hopes for our pitching than our positional players. I do not blame the Astros for injuries. It just seems like this has been a confluence of all that could possibly go wrong this season. With that being said there is no way I give up farm capital on a hope and a prayer that these pitchers and players come back and magically light it up. As an Astros fan that is my dream, but as a sports realist I realize that is probably copium. There are many on here that say if you have a chance, push all of your chips in, and I get that. chances do not come your way as often as they have for us since 2017. Not saying it's wrong to go for it. I just have that snake bit, black cat feeling about this season. and I don't see anyone out there that moves the needle enough for me to give up Ullola and Pecko. Ride this season out. Clear the decks of our failed FA's that come off the books at the end of the season. Get everyone healthy and fill the needs going into next year being one year removed from the CBT. I just think it's the most prudent scenario. And, this is just my personal opinion, and it means nothing
Seems like the Rays have a good track record of extracting unexpected value out of trades. I'm not super into feeding that beast . . . but if it lands us Rassmussen . . . maaaaybe . . . . Bradley, no. Mullins (i prefer Castro), Correa . . . seems like an odd mix that could work for a bit and might be better than the Ray deal. I didn't love the comments Brown said this morning . . . a 75% Yordan is better than what we got out there . . . what the heck?!?!?!?! Sounds like a full break and not a microfracture. If we are looking at 75-80% yordan, I'm sorry folks . . . we ain't going anywhere with the guys in the rumor mill. Ozuna would be interesting, but it would speak volumes about Yordan this year (which makes me want to hope that's not the case). I loved adding Ozuna with Yordan in left - but if Yordan is only gonna be 75%, then he's the DH . . . and if we get Ozuna then they think Yordan is done this year.
