His late start and age is what caps his trade value. Other teams will think he already peaked with little upside.
I am fine with stand pat and hope the young 'uns continue maturing (and pray that their weaknesses aren't scouted out til their sophomore slumps) and the team gets healthy... but I am skeptical about Yordan, Meyers, JP France, and Dezenzo the most.
I agree with you directionally with what you are saying. My only pushback from doing a deep dive on who’s lucky and who isn’t is to say Altuve isn’t lucky. His entire 12 year history which is a huge sample size says his real numbers are always much better than his expected numbers. Paredes is the same way. This can be explained almost entirely by the following facts: neither of them hit the ball particularly hard but both hit pull side fly balls which are the most valuable hitting profile outcomes because those balls disproportionately fly over the fence, even if they aren’t hit super hard, especially at the ice box (or Fenway or Yankee stadium or any other park that isn’t deep down the lines. i’n not worried either of them is “lucky” they just do something the numbers don’t account for very well but they have a long enough track record doing it that you should believe the actual numbers over the expected numbers in their case.
I don't either But you have to give up something if you want to get something. This organization just has too few players that other teams want. It will be interesting to see what Dana ends up doing.
I think adding Taylor Trammell to the list of players who have a wOBA below their xwOBA is stretching to fit a narrative. His xwOBA slightly exceeds his real numbers while his xSLG is slightly below. He has 9 hits and 16 strikeouts. I wouldn't count on him to be an above average hitter the rest of the season. On the other hand, been super impressed by Matthews the last couple games. Not just the home runs, I think he's getting better ABs, working counts, etc. Maybe he is figuring it out at the MLB level like Cam did. And I'm on the Walter bandwagon, too. I think he's a legit #3 pitcher. He's the opposite of the Blubaugh, Ullola types who have big arms and no control. And he still strikes out >1 per inning.
Pretty clear choice: Protect the valuable trade chips (Arrighetti, Melton, Matthews, Janek, Ullola, K Alvarez) and utilize complementary pieces (Gusto, Gordon, Whitcomb, Dezenzo) and 2nd/3rd tier prospects (Blubaugh, Fleury, Pecko, Mayer, Sullivan, Nezuh, Santa, Baez, Corona, Bush) to add complementary controllable big leaguers or flawed rental stars, OR let go of one or more of those valuable trade chips to add a star/core big leaguer.
Absolutely hate the idea of trading Framber unless a TOR starter + more comes back. Having a 95+% chance at the playoffs and 10+% chance to win the World Series in late July is much much much better than trying to improve 2026's roster and the future of this team. Look at the 2015 Royals. Loaded with young talent and irrelevant after a single World Series. Same with the 2016 Cubs. World Series' are precious.
I agree and I would rather extend Framber. But hypothetically a prospect haul like that would suffice if a gun was to my head.
His velo is there but his movement and location tanked. Hes a worthy reclamation project but not for Houston right now unless he passes thru waivers and they can try to fix him in AAA.
I like this article. Hopefully yall do too. It's a look at payroll and production expected for 2026 and how that impacts this years deadline. I think Snake is right- you just don't see any reason to trade for anyone other than a rental, UNLESS it's a star for 2026. In which case some of what you have that you are counting on now goes out the window.
This 100%. It would be crazy to trade our best pitcher away in a season where we could win it all. Especially when Hunter has looked bad in his last three starts. If there's one thing this season has shown, is that they can pick up the pieces around the margins. We need a couple of aces if we're hoping to win a chip this year.
If Framber had to get traded - yes. If the Astros had an option to keep him, in the current situation, I would not do it for 5 top 100 prospects. Unless, they got a guy like Sandy Alcatara, Kris Bubic, Freddy Peralta, Chris Sale, etc to replace him on this roster. Worry about 2026 in the off season. Do not do anything that hurts World Series chances in 2025.
Sandy sucks this year. Might be the worst pitcher in baseball. Not just bad luck, he's got bad underlying numbers too. Haven't watched any Marlins baseball to know why that is.
Wasn't set on Sandy, though he has the talent. If Marlins are willing to trade him at current value he could be a steal. Go Miller and Murphy and co. I was just thinking of guys who could be available off the top if my head. If the Astros could figure out the money, Sonny Gray could be a sneaky good addition but because of the money that would likely need to he an off season move.
