What will it take to make you seriously consider an EV?

We know it's cheapest, just like having one camera only is cheapest. It doesn't make it safer though. Waymo's objective is to make self driving safe first, then cost effective later. Elon's approach is to make it cost effective, and then safe.

If Waymo is 99.9% safe and Tesla is 99.5% safe, who will be choosing each? That means every single day, assuming 100k rides, there are 500 accidents to Waymo's 100. So Tesla has 5x the accidents. No one will be trying to get in a Tesla. I still haven't seen a FSD vehicle in the rain, snow, or any sub-optimal driving conditions.

 

How will these companies handle disaster scenarios like rapid evacuations, opening reverse lanes, earthquake rubble, riots and protests, parts of town being shut down due to bombs or fires, and other unexpected events?

Not every day will be a blue-sky day.

 

I honestly don't think just cameras will ever be the answer. Yes, it's cheaper, but by the time they make really viable, Lidar will be cheap enough where people will just choose that. Waymo uses expensive systems, but wouldn't take much for them to switch over to all the less expensive LIDAR tech they put in Chinese EV cars. I would also like to see the safety reports on Chinese self driving vehicles.

 

Consumers will not be basing their ride sharing decisions based on technology. It will be price foremost and preferred bias second. Additionally Tesla will offer a whole suite of additional features that an Uber/Waymo experience has not even begun to develop.

 

It will be overwhelmingly based on price, not safety record. If safety is even a remote concern, the service will not run.

 

It's going to be based on perceived safety. By the time Tesla can get their tech without drivers sitting in the seat, Lidar tech will be cheap enough where it will be a non factor in an commercial environment. People will choose the perceived safer option which is LIDAR and currently Waymo.

 

Are the cheaper Chinese LIDARs as good as what Waymo uses? I don’t believe the substitution is as easy as you think.

The real bottom line is whether autonomy can be done just by cameras, not how much the cost of LIDAR can be trimmed.

 

Uber has lost money for decades. There's plenty of VC money to sustain these ride share programs at a loss for a while. Tesla for sure won't be winning on price. It will be more about who can sustain a loss for as long as possible in order to drive the competitor out. Waymo may "lose" a lot more money per ride at the beginning but they are going to keep their price competitive for as long as it takes, while their costs go down.