Would be happy with him. He’s got reverse splits this season which is odd because he’s historically been better against LHP.
My Astros Top 10 trade targets with 15 days to go: 1. Willi Castro, 2B/LF, Twins: a solid, inexpensive lefthanded bat with the defensive versatility to meet Houston’s primary need of adding a quality hitter who allows them to continue to hide Jose Altuve on the field. He’s a rental, which fits Houston’s needs, assuming they believe in Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton as long term everyday players. 2. Cedric Mullins, CF/LF, Orioles: a veteran lefthanded hitting outfielder who plays quality defense and offers baserunning value. He makes sense even if Houston expects Jake Meyers to come back healthy before the season ends, but given Meyers’ expected timeline and the other considerations relative to Houston’s CF in the upper levels (McCormick/Trammell/Corona sucking, Melton/Leon hurt), he makes a ton of sense. 3. Pavin Smith, LF/DH, Diamondbacks: Smith is a better hitter and fielder than Ryan O’Hearn and he makes less money. His availability is questionable as Arizona might be more inclined to sell their crummy LH OF instead (Thomas and McCarthy), and his extra years of control might work against him as a fit for Houston, but he’s the type of player Houston should target. 4. Ryan O’Hearn, LF/DH, Orioles: a proven LH middle of the order hitter who crushes RHP. The fit here really depends on Yordan Alvarez’s health, among other things. If both Meyers and Alvarez are expected to return in August, O’Hearn makes a lot less sense. But he’s one of the only legitimate elite hitters expected to be available. 5. Mike Tauchman, CF/LF, White Sox: He’s been above average against righties in 5 of the last 6 seasons and he’s capable of playing CF. He’s also cheap. Tauchman represents a good alternative to Cedric Mullins. 6. Jesus Sanchez, LF/CF, Marlins: He’s consistently hit RHP well throughout his career and doesn’t have a big contract. He’s controllable thru 2027 which actually probably makes him less of a fit for Houston. 7. Gavin Lux, LF/2B, Reds: similar to Castro but not as good and comes with another year of control. 8. Andrew Heaney, P, Pirates: I’ve considered Heaney a target for Houston to improve for a few years now. But even if they don’t level him up, he’s a cheap rental who would stabilize the regular season rotation and make a viable Game 4 playoff starter. 9. Mike Soroka, P, Nationals: Same as Heaney but with more upside/downside. 10. Charlie Morton, P, Orioles: CFM is one of my top 5 favorite baseball players ever, so this is largely sentimental. But he’s righted the ship over the last 2 months and would obviously fit in the clubhouse. I’d love to see him as the Game 3 SP in a playoff series. Honorable mention: Marcell Ozuna, all RH RP, Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller, Aaron Civale, Luis Robert Jr., Zac Gallen, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, O’Neil Cruz, Eric Fedde, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Lowe, Josh Naylor This list was made under the assumption that Pena will be back by early August, and that Houston expects Javier, Arrighetti, Meyers, and Alvarez to be back in time for the playoffs. I also assumed Houston doesn’t want to go over the CBT and wants to avoid gutting their farm. And like I said, I assume Houston believes in Melton and Matthews which lessens the need to add a controllable bat. I also didn’t want to wade into which RP Houston might target because there are so many available, but Houston could certainly opt to add a RH RP instead of a SP or a 2nd bat. I will be disappointed if Houston doesn’t add 2 meaningful players this month. 3 (1 2B, 1 OF, 1 P) would be ideal.
I really like your list. In my opinion Morton is not a candidate simply due to budget. I would be SHOCKED ( capitalized to show just how shocked) if the Astros go over the CBT. The only exception I can think of is if it is for an impact player who also has control beyond 2025. And I don't think the Astros have ammo for that kind of deal. I also think they have less than $5M (maybe less than $4M) available. They may dump Chas with additional prospect(s) in any deal to accomplish this. There are very few tradable guys who would reduce the salary hit. Maybe Meyers if he is potentially done for the year. I think the Astros are happy with the pitching and betting on Arrighetti, Javier, and/or Garcia returning and being postseason viable. They may think the current AAAA express is plenty good enough for the regular season. It also would not surprise me if they determine that IF ( big if) Meyers, Melton, and Dezenzo all return then there simply isn't enough of a need/potential level of impact to justify trading prospects for a guy who may only play 2-3 times per week and possibly less in the postseason. But I do expect a guy like Castro, Mullins, Tauchman, or Lux to be an Astro in 2 weeks
I think this post-ASB series with Seattle is HUGE in terms of how aggressive/desperate the Astros will be @ the deadline. Win 2+ and you then play 10 straight games - and 13/16 - against sub-.500 teams, including A's, Nationals & Marlins. If they can build on their (current) five-game lead over that stretch - and before a gauntlet of 16 games v Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers & Os - they may see the regular season as scratch and look at the players returning as enough. But if the Ms gain games, looking at that 16-game stretch... they may feel much greater urgency to make a move, and likely, a bigger move.
I will be pretty surprised if Houston goes over the CBT too. But Morton will be owed <$5M at the deadline. I don’t think any of the players on my list will be owed >$5M at the deadline. I think Houston has a little more wiggle room than you do but either way it wouldn’t take much for Houston to juice the returns enough to get the other team to eat enough money to keep them under, even if they add 3 guys from my list. I agree McCormick is primed to be traded even if it’s just a salary dump (although that will get rid of <$2M in salary). Brendan Rodgers would be the only other potential salary dump (but that would only save a few hundred grand).
It wouldn't be hard to get them to eat part of Morton's salary if we gave them a decent prospect or someone they want with team control.
Technically McCormick has 3 options remaining. But he is close to 5 years of service time which I think means he would be able to elect free agency if optioned after that point; I’m not 100% sure how that works. But he can definitely be optioned this season.
The main thing I am not sure about is if he is optioned and thus fails to reach 5 years of service time, does that mean he can be optioned again next season if he still doesn’t have 5 years service time. There’s also the question of whether optioning him would mean adding an additional year of team control, since he entered the season right at 4 years service time.
Can you put together a similar list of Astros players you would trade or release to reduce payroll enough to bring in players that could help us this season and in the play-offs I was hoping to create such a list but have not had the time.
There’s no such list. McCormick and Rodgers are the only 2 players making above minimum salary who it makes any sense to get rid of, and they will only have <$3M left on their contracts on 7/31. Walker, Pena, Paredes, Meyers, Alvarez, Dubon, Framber, Bryan Abreu, and Hader aren’t going anywhere. The only other players making above league minimum are Javier, whose backloaded deal makes his AAV calculation onerous to trade (not to mention they are likely expecting him to be a key member of the rotation from Sept 2025 thru Nov 2027), and Garcia, who has less than $1M remaining so not worth it. Houston is just going to have to target affordable players and juice the prospect returns to entice the other teams to eat enough salary to keep them under. I don’t think it will prevent them from doing what they want to do, and if there’s a major acquisition that would put them over the CBT, Crane has shown he will greenlight it.
