2025 MLB Draft

I'd say they're pretty much exactly the same as any of the other CYA contenders

 

Correct. Which increases parity and decreases each player’s odds of finishing in the top 3.

 

Based on the Vegas odds above, that translates to Cam at 40% and Hunter at 12.5%. Your 5% is exactly correct on getting 2 picks based on these odds.

Edit: My bad, that is if Hunter had to win the CY award. The odds are way higher with him only needing to finish top 3.

Edit 2: Fanduel now has Cam tied with Jacob Wilson to win ROY.

 

He is also underestimating the odds that he will slip out of the top 3 even if he does stay healthy.

 

I was much more confident before last night's fiasco. LOL. I'm just going to keep my mouth shut and hope for the best.

 

The Stros have more important things to worry about, and so should you

 

I'm not worried about. I just want it to happen. I would love to see what Brown can do with 2 extra high level draft picks.

 

Actually Chandler Rome, in his podcast said that is common misconception but incorrect - teams CAN get more than 1 pick if multiple players earn it.

 

In your haste to try to haughtily correct me you failed to read the rest of the ****ing thread.

 

Not sure if posted anywhere amongst your discussions of potential draft picks that may or may not happen 12 months from now:

"At the end of the day, we don’t want to be in a position where we’re 'draft for need,'” said Cam Pendino, the Astros’ director of amateur scouting. “We want to stay true to the board and take who we think is the best available talent.”
....
“Last year, there was a lot of college bats at the top -- Cam Smith chief among them,” Pendino said. “And this one is less college bat-heavy and more high school bat-heavy. There’s a lot of interesting high school bats, particularly in terms of depth. There’s more high school depth than there was a year ago.”

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-2025-draft-preview

 

It confirms that Cam was one of their top guys and we were targeting him specifically when trading Tucker. Well played Mr. Brown

 

Draft is Sunday. Astros are in good shape with a deep crop of high ceiling position players who project to be available at 21. If they can get their 1st rounder to agree to $500k under slot, between that savings, the 5% overage allowance, and the potential savings from a few senior signs in rounds 4-10, they could be able to offer in the $1.7M range for pick 95 in the 3rd round (their next pick after the first round). That would be a bonus commiserate with the 55th pick. If Houston can come away from this draft with 2 of the top 60 talents plus the standard haul of totally underrated pitchers, it’ll be a good draft. Jordan Yost, Ryan Mitchell, Dax Kilby, Lucas Franco, and Cooper Flemming are HS guys who might be available for overslot money at pick 95. Xavier Neyens, Jace LaViolette, Kayson Cunningham, Wehima Aloy, and Josh Hammond would be potential picks at 21. Gage Wood and Gavin Kilen have also been mentioned but I don’t see Houston taking them.

 

Draft at 5pm today. Both mlb.com and espn.com have Houston taking A&M OF Jace LaViolette in the first round, with HS IF Xavier Neyens and college SS Wahiwa Aloy mentioned by both sites as other options. ESPN also mentioned HS IF Tate Southisene as an option.

ESPN went a little deeper: Charles Davalan and Slater de Brun are two players who don't fit in that bucket that the Astros are also on.

Keep an eye on Jase Mitchell, Matt Ferrara, Matt Miura, C.J. Hughes, Josh Flores and Tyler Finkbeiner at later picks.

 

I would consider getting LaViolette and Chase Shores out of this draft a big win. Any chance Shores last to #95?

 

I think it comes down to Cam vs Kurtz

 

My bad. But also challenge accepted.

 

I am looking for a player or two to drop unexpectedly and make this a little more interesting. But Jace LaViolette was among my picks all along and I would be happy with that selection.

 

I might be wrong but with only a few hours left I have to take the under.