Lol, you listen to Dana and believe what he says publicly lololol I seriously doubt he cares where the guy stands if he can mash RHP
OMG yes we would There is NO way I would trade guys like that for Lux simply because he stands in the left handed batters box. Lux is about as mid as it gets. He would be a serviceable player for us, but his hot start got people excited around here and since the end of that GREAT April, his OPS is mid 600s If we brought Lux in for Shea, or something like that it would be fine. But hell no to trading any of our few legitimate assets for him Also for those excited about Hummel, it’s been great watching him have some good at bats the past week or so, but there is no legitimate reason to think that all of the sudden he is someone who helps us win a title. Pretty much every player brought to MLB has the ability to have a great 30-40 at bat sample We need to bring in someone who has a strong history of hitting RHP that can play LF/2B
Agree with all this except your write-off of Hummel. Hummel has consistently been an elite hitter in the minors. If you don’t believe small samples have value, you can toss out his poor MLB performances in 2023 and 2024. So really you’re weighing his 200 pa sample from his rookie season in 2022 (where he posted a clearly unlucky .255 BABIP and a healthy walk rate) against his entire minor league career. He’s 50 pa into this season in the majors (where k rate tends to stabilize), and he is posting very solid bb/k #s. There is nothing in his underlying numbers that indicates his 123 wRC+ or .344 wOBA are due to luck. He posts very good plate discipline stats and solid power/exit velocity. His weakness in 2022 in MLB was bad batted ball luck and swinging and missing too much on good pitches; the first thing appears to have normalized and the second is something that wouldn’t be unheard of to improve upon. I’m not saying Hummel is an elite big leaguer all of a sudden. But there’s plenty of evidence that he can be above average and warrant an extended look in LF and in the bottom 1/3 of the lineup. It would not surprise me one bit if Hummel hits better for the remainder of the season than guys like Gavin Lux or Cedric Mullins.
I’m buying the Hummel hype! Grass isn’t always greener elsewhere. Sometimes, you just got to water your own plants !
I really hope you are right cause it would make a huge difference And MLB teams are wrong on players all the time, no doubt about that It would just be strange to have a guy that within the past year has been waived by SF, Houston, Baltimore, NYY all of the sudden be a solid regular on one of the best teams in all of MLB. All of those teams, including us, could have been wrong on him and all he needed was a chance, but it's really weird if all the underlying metrics said he would do this that everyone said na But 100% I hope he does. And if you are right, what still sucks is that while he has mashed LHP, he has been putrid against RHP (24 at bats, 4 singles, 8 Ks) which is where we really need the help. I'm guessing that if Espada were to give Chas the chance he could hit LHP as well as Hummel, but that's not gonna happen regardless of how Hummel does going forward.
To be fair, in this case you dug your plant up and put it in the trash but the trash man threw it back in your yard, and it started growing Just got to hope it ain't a weed
There’s two ways to look at his past: either it’s damning that so many teams have allowed him to pass thru waivers, or that it’s encouraging that so many teams have given him a look despite his age and lack of pedigree. Like I said, I don’t think Hummel will be a star or anything, but I believe that often the only difference between a solid average everyday corner OF and a AAAA washout is opportunity.
Astros should be rooting for 4 teams to commit to selling: Pirates: ONeil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds Twins: Willi Castro, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith, Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez Red Sox: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida Those 4 teams could end up having 14 guys available with very good overall track records against RHP. Boston is the only one of those teams currently sporting a winning record.
On the Boston guys, Abreu is controlled through 2030, Duran through 2029 and Yoshida through 2028 I think any of them could be had in the right deal, but I don't think Boston falling out of it makes them more likely to move any of them. I think if they move any of those guys, especially Abreu or Duran, it will be because it's a deal they feel like improves them for now AND in the future Yoshida isn't a good defender I don't think so not a great fit in my opinion. We don't want Yordan playing the field a lot because of injuries, we have done a good job of hiding Altuve where they aren't likely to hit it, but if we add another poor defender we would start to get exposed on defense which isn't good for a team that by and large wins by pitching and playing great defense The cost of Abreu and Duran would be significant but with our lack of hitting side prospects, would be worth a discussion
Left-hand bat talk aside, seems to me that an Astros team that is not planning on signing Framber needs to be considering trades for a top of rotation or near TOR SP to replace him if they’re not convinced one does not already exist currently in the organization. LH bat important too, but personally I don’t think its as important as this potential hole in the roster
Hard to say. A 2026 rotation of Brown, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, and Arrighetti, with Walter, Gordon, Gusto, Blubaugh, France, Ullola, and Fleury in AAA seems really deep and has enough upside to warrant holding off on major expenditures on bringing in a SP from outside. It really is a shame that Garcia, Javier, and Arrighetti won’t be back in time to really assess them before the deadline.
It needs to be: Brown, Javier/arrighetti Garcia LMJ Aaa dudes, if you are going to convince me we have enough to win a title. I know you weren’t necessarily power ranking them in the org, but I am. If Javier and Arrighetti can both be 2’s we are fine, even if we have one less ace than we did this year. LMJ needs to be the 5 th guy bc that’s what a 5th guy does- ***** the bed from time to time, gets blown up and taxes the bullpen. Even when LMJ was good he did the last part of it.
You really would rather have Hummel who has never played in a playoff game as a starter over Lux who has started for a WS champ and has playoff experience?
This got me thinking. Rather than #1-5, I have always kind of grouped pitchers into: Guys you expect to dominate a playoff game Guys you are confident starting in the playoffs Guys you probably don’t want starting in the playoffs but are ok starting in the regular season Guys you are ok giving a spot start to but don’t really want in your regular rotation long term Guys who aren’t major league pitchers Houston has had 28 guys start at least 10 games for them since 2015: Tier 1: Framber, Verlander, Brown, Cole Tier 2: Keuchel, Morton, Greinke, McCullers, Kikuchi, Kazmir Tier 3: McHugh, Javier, Urquidy, Fiers, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti Tier 4: Peacock, Odorizzi, Miley, Fister (barely knew her), Musgrove, France, Feldman, Gusto, Gordon Tier 5: Bielak, Hernandez Some of those tier 3-4 guys could easily be moved up or down one spot. To me, McCullers and Arrighetti are the wild cards. McCullers was a tier 2 pitcher from 2015-2022 when healthy. Seeing him uncork 95 against the dodgers was very encouraging. His consistency and effectiveness over July-Sept will be huge to determine what to count on from him next season. Arrighetti has been a tier 3-4 guy but has clearly shown potential for a lot more; it’s not beyond the realm of possibility for him to take a Hunter Brown level leap. But his injury makes it a lot less likely that happens this season. Walter is only 5 starts into his Astros career, but I definitely want to see him continue to get opportunities; it is not impossible that he could be a Keuchel-level lefty SP. Like I said, if all of Brown, McCullers, Javier, Arrighetti, Garcia, and Walter are healthy at the end of this season, I don’t see SP as an area to address this coming offseason. You can never have too much SP and it’s all about value so if Houston makes a move I will be open minded about it, but it isn’t where my focus would be if I were GM.
I agree with the analysis, but I do find it amusing that one of the guys “you probably don’t want starting in the playoffs” threw a no-hitter in the World Series!
I like your ties. essentially if Javier and Arrighetti do what I think/want them to in 2026 we are fine. how I predict (absent injuries why you need redundancy: Tier 1- brown Tier 2- Arrighetti and
How I expect it to play out in 2026 Tiers 1- brown Tier 2- Arrighetti and Javier Tier 3- garcia, LMJ, Walter, Ullola, blubaugh, gusto, Tier 4- France, Gordon I think brown is unarguable Javier is clearly 2 if he becomes what he was. Arrighetti involves protection but I’m comfortable with that. tier 3 involves blubaugh and Ullola taking steps next year I think they will take. Garcia and lance being healthy. The minor league guys are all proving it. Tier 4 you could argue they’ve proven tier 3 but I care about stuff a lot. Tier 5 I don’t really care about/ Alexander I guess you could say here. The Astros are witches at leveling all those guys 1 or 2 steps higher than you’d think they are. That’s why I’m betting so strongly on Arrighetti. he’s the key to all of it. We know the Astros create tier 3 and 4 out of literally thin air so I’m not worried about that. the only problem with 26 is lack of redundancy for top 2 tiers. You need 3 of those guys. Could LmJ and Ullola get into tier 2 by 26 playoffs? Sure. Hunter Brown better not get hurt and we are fine if that is the case without adding at the deadline or in 2026 offseason. this team lacks one good left handed bat from being pretty much awesome in 2026. Of melton hits we are pretty much there. That left handed bat can be a platoon bat.
