Not that it’s major reason for optimism, but Whitaker has improved each month this season. He has a 692 ops in June after posting a 536 in May and a 483 in April. The trajectory may earn him a job thru the end of the season but he’s still probably gonna be released by the end of the year.
Bryce Mayer vs. Bowling Green: 5 IP, 2 H, 7 K Will Bush has two solo homers (11) and Kenni Gomez has a three-run blast (6) for Asheville.
Corpus is pouring it on Northwest Arkansas early as they're up 14-2 after 4 innings. Zach Cole has two two-run blasts (8). Luis Baez (1) and Wes Clarke (3) have also homered for the Hooks.
DSL Orange players of the week: Hitters: Anderson Arenaimo, Leandro Morgado Pitchers: Angel Peralta, Isaac Palacio DSL Blue players of the week: Hitter: Kevin Alvarez Pitchers: Adrian Ardines, Antonio Delgado
Spoiler: Snake Diggit's Astros Top 30 Prospects: June 2025 Update Rank Position Name Grade Previous Rank Notes 2B Brice Matthews 55 (2): Another good month and at this point it's probably safe to say he will reach the majors this season. He's a really good, high upside prospect who just needs a little more time. OF Jacob Melton 50+ (4): Hurt again. He will fall somewhere between Derek Fisher and George Springer in terms of big league value. P Miguel Ullola 50+ (7): I'm still in. Best fastball of any player in Houston's system outside of Hunter Brown. Still young enough to get the walks under control. Could probably strike big league hitters out now if he had to. I could see him coming up at some point late this season; he will be added to the 40 man roster in November anyway. C Walker Janek 50 (6): Another pretty good month, although his k rate ticked up. Still tracking to be an everyday big league C, although he may have a relatively weak bat. P Anderson Brito 50 (13): He went on the IL on 6/25 so we'll have to see how serious that is, but he had a great June and if his injury is minor, we could see him in Corpus, which would be a major opportunity for him. OF Kevin Alvarez 50 (16): One can never read anything into DSL numbers, but I'm going to do it anyway; he's got terrific k/bb numbers in his pro debut and he's such a high ceiling guy. But it'll be 2+ years before we have concrete info. P Ryan Forcucci 45+ (22): Patience. He's moved up due to poor performance of some of the guys ahead of him. OF Joseph Sullivan 45+ (15): Took a bit of a step back posting a 736 ops in June, but still, AA will tell us whether he's an elite prospect or another Joey Loperfido level 4th OF. OF/IF Shay Whitcomb 45+ (9): Kind of a lost month for him as he got jerked up and down between riding pine in Houston and playing in Sugar Land. Deserves a long big league audition, but he probably won't get it with Houston. P AJ Blubaugh 45+ (8): Something has been off since his demotion after big league debut. Hope he's not hurt. I'm downgrading him a half grade. P Ethan Pecko 45+ (5): He just got healthy and hasn't looked great out of the gate, but could get a lot of hype if he has a string of good starts in AA. P Jose Fleury 45+ (23): Just came back from injury and has looked good. Certain to be a 40 man add this November. C/1B Will Bush 45+ (HM): Followed up a monster May with an even better June (1001 ops). He needs to get to Corpus, but given his age, power potential, and defensive potential, he could be a big time prospect. Biggest breakout in the system so far this season. IF Chase Jaworsky 45+ (11): Played sporadically in June but is holding his own at an aggressive level. It may not be until next year before he truly breaks out, but he's a good prospect. P Jackson Nezuh 45+ (12): Missed all of June on the IL. Trending down until we know what the injury was. P Bryce Mayer 45+ (40): Could be this year's Jake Bloss. I want him in AA next week. P Michael Knorr 45 (HM): Stock up, already in AAA and has the stuff to get big leaguers out. Certain to be a 40 man add this November. P Alimber Santa 45 (36): His AA numbers look good and we know he has the stuff. Trending for an add to the 40 man this fall. IF Alberto Hernandez 45 (27): On a full season pace for 40+ doubles and 20+ SB. Combined with his defensive value, he's one to watch. OF/1B Luis Baez 45 (14): Frankly, he's sucked so far this season and his stock is trending down. He did have a big game yesterday so hopefully that's a turning point. OF Kenni Gomez 45 (10): Took a step back in June. Not looking like this will be his breakout season. Patience is warranted. C/IF Jancel Villarroel 45 (25): Moderate rebound from a poor May. Probably will be in Fayetteville all season. Only 20. P Juan Bello 45 (20): Walks ticked up in June. Still, overall he is having a solid season considering his age, level, and league. P Trey Dombroski 45 (HM): Got bumped back down to AA after a brief callup to AAA. Probably will be a 40 man add this November. OF Kenedy Corona 45 (29): Did not have the June breakout I predicted and in fact took a step backwards. The next 3 months are critical for him to show development. P Cole Hertzler 45 (HM): Hurt but looked good prior. P Alonzo Tredwell 45 (HM): 2 appearaances into High A but at least showing signs that he might have value. P Alex Santos II 40+ (35): hurt again. OF Colin Barber 40+ (HM): early returns in AAA are encouraging. OF Pedro Leon 40+ (26): Hurt again. Leash rapidly shortening. Graduated: RF Cam Smith (1), OF Zach Dezenzo (3), P Ryan Gusto (17),P Colton Gordon (19), Brandon Walter (HM) Honorable Mention: C: Collin Price, Miguel Palma (30), Garret Guillemette, Alexi Quiroz; Price has cooled off, Palma is hurt again, Guillemette is in AA so might be able to carve out a AAAA career IF: Caden Powell, German Ramirez, Pascanel Ferreras, Yamal Encarnacion, Jeron Williams, Alejandro Nunez, Camilo Diaz, Sami Manzueta, Hector Salas, Sandro Pereira, Waner Luciano; some positive developments here in June. Luciano had a great month in Fayetteville and could shoot up quickly. Hoping for Jeron Williams to have a good July and what Manzueta is doing at age 16 is a good sign. OF: Nehomar Ochoa (21), Zach Cole (28), Esmil Valencia, Lucas Spence, Drew Brutcher, Ethan Wagner, Cesar Hernandez, Cristopfer Gonzalez, Anthony Huezo, Luis Rives, Ariel Lebron, Amauri Ramirez; a mixed bag but the DSL OF are showing well. Spence could reach AA in his first full season, a great sign for a UDFA. Cole is hitting for massive power and his overall line is good despite a massive k rate; he may be a poor man's Joey Gallo, which is a AAAA value. Practicing patience with Ochoa, Valencia, and Wagner. P: All of them but especially James Hicks (18), Wilmy Sanchez, Hudson Leach, Logan VanWey (24), Ramsey David, Amilcar Chirinos, Twine Palmer, Brett Gillis, Brandon McPherson, Patrick Halligan, Jank Pichardo, Joey Mancini, Colby Langford, Brett Gillis, Joey Mancini, Raimy Rodriguez, Jagger Beck, Joan Ogando, Luis Rodriguez, Jhoster Baez, Parker Smith, Andrew Taylor; lots to like but impossible to know which ones will pan out and stay healthy. The draft and trade deadline will shake things up later this month. Farm has great OF and P depth. Matthews is a Top 100 type of prospect. Factoring in pitching development, this system is average overall and is 2-3 really good prospects away from being above average.
3 interesting guys making rehab appearances in the FCL game today: SS Greg Jones, 3B Jack Blomgren, and C Miguel Palma. All 3 guys could give a boost to the talent level in AA/AAA later this month.
When you say farm is overall 2 or 3 prospects away from being above average I can't help but think- All that means is we needed a healthy Chas this year to keep Melton and Smith down on the farm and we'd be there. If Cam Smith was the top 20 or top 10 prospect he should be if not starting the year on the Astros that sort of changes everything, right? This is partly why farm rankings are so dumb. The farm is big league service. If Mathews hits then essentially that means we have every single spot on the big league roster (that's important) locked up through the end of 2027, right? So, the only job of the farm is to keep replacing pitchers whose arms we shred at the big league level with other guys that can step in and perform until their arms get shredded. This org has proven it's completely and totally up to that task. Parentheses is year we have player through C- Yainer (2028), Backup- TBD- we need a backup catcher- we apparently have a ton that profile to at least be that 1B- Walker (2027) 2b- Mathews (2031) SS- Pena (2027) 3b- Paredes (2027) LF- Altuve (2029 CF- Meyers (2027); Melton (2031) RF- Smith (2030) DH- Alvarez (2028). That's it- we have one open spot on the roster. If Matthews can hold that down we have no open spots for 2.5 more years. To do list (we have 2.5 years to do this): extend Pena or Paredes (or both!) or develop their replacements. Replace Walker (hopefully that doesn't need to be a thing that happens in 2026 and he can rebound and be decent in 2026 & 2027). After 2028 when Diaz and Yordan are gone it gets pretty dicey and whether or not you are a contender or not depends on how the farm does. It would be really interesting laying this all out here like this if the Astros decided to pivot and tried to sign Pena or Paredes to extensions that bought out 1 year of FA right now. Something like 3/65 for Pena (that's buying out his FA year for like 40M) or 3/60 for Paredes (that's probably buying out his FA year for 30M- as he's a super 2 so should make more money than Pena in Arb the next 2 years). Guys would secure a big bag without hurting their cause on FA clock too much- Astros have their entire team locked down until 2028 when they can try to figure out whether it's a rebuild or a retool or a reload. Pitching: Framber (2025), McCullers (2026), Abreu (2026), Okert (2027), Javier (2027), Brown (2028), Hader (2028) Arrighetti (2029), Walter, Gordon, Gusto, King, et al (2030 or 2031). We are beyond fine here. If Ullola is the Ace I think he is (or Arrighetti is a really solid 2) we've got enough to keep going through the decade.
Yeah I agree, prospect and farm system rankings are pretty arbitrary but especially without the context of what the major league roster looks like. In terms of cheap young controllable talent (which is what farm system rankings are really trying to get at), Houston looks great, possibly among the top 5 or 10 teams in the league. This is going to be a contender thru at least 2027 and at that point will have a virtually clean financial slate. Yes, if Smith, Melton, and Dezenzo were still healthy prospects mashing in AAA, this is probably a firmly average system in terms of prospect rankings.
Kevin Alvarez hit his 2nd home run of the season for the DSL Blue team. It probably won't happen, but I would not mind seeing him in the US before the season is over.
Nice to see what some of the players currently look like, thanks for sharing. I think that's Sami Manzueta taking a strike in the 3rd video on the first post. I missed Delgado when I was going through the Panamanian players a few weeks ago. He signed on October 1 of last year, so was technically in last year's class but made his debut this year. He looks like a bean pole, and is 2nd among Astros DSLers in K%. Walks quite a few so far, but for a 6'5" 18 year old, that's not too big of a deal. He's on my radar. Ardines went 4 more innings this morning without giving up a walk or run and struck out 5. His only 2 runs of the season came in his first game, and the only 2 walks of the season came in the 2nd (when he struck out 8). He's repeating the level, but this season (if he keeps it going) is arguably challenging Fleury and Brito as the most dominant DSL seasons for an Astros pitcher. He's younger than either of them were at the time as well. It would be cool to see him come stateside at some point.
In his 2025 debut, Jack Blomgren has 4 RBI today in the FCL. Blomgren was a minor league Rule 5 selection from the Rockies this past offseason. He's a slapper and has some good speed, but his biggest red flag has been lack of availability.
Yamal Encarnacion is also playing in today’s FCL game. So that’s 3 upside guys who would probably be slated for AA in Palma, Encarnacion, and Blomgren plus Jones who I assume will head to AAA.
None of that was at all a criticism of the yeoman's work you and others do on this thread. I love it. It's just a reminder that the minors exist to service the big league organization- not as a good in and of itself. Basically, I would be in favor of a long term extension for Paredes (through 2030 and Cam's time- call it 5/140- which is 3/100 on the extension), extending Yainer through 2030 (call it 5/75- which is 2-50 in FA years porbably) and trading Jeremy Pena for a shitload (including his replacement) at the end of the 2025 season if Boras means he's not going to extend... provided Bryce Matthews looks like he's going to be a dude. That keeps you solid through 2027 everywhere, Yainer is your 1B through 2030, and you just have to be right about Pena's replacement coming in the trade plus develop a catcher. Then- your payroll after 2027 looks something like this: Catcher (to be determined)- 1M Yainer- 15M Mathews- 1M SS (pena trade)- 1m Paredes- 28M Yordan- 18M Altuve- 25M (10 M in real world dollars- 25M on cap) Melton- 1M Smith- 6M (going into year 1 of Arb) That's 100M roster with Yordan's 18M coming off (23M in real world dollars) at the end of the next year. Depending upon how all those guys play out that would be the time to trade him in his walk year for a Tucker like package. If you could successfully pull that off your golden years would be running for something like 15 or 16 years. I think that in my lifetime the only orgs that can say that are basically modern Dodgers, modern Yankees, Braves of yesteryear and the Cardinals from about 2000- 2015 or 2020 depending upon how you reckon them. Of course if you can develop another star or two you can keep it going even longer than that.
Prospects are being promoted faster and farm systems are turning over faster than ever, so the fact that the big league roster looks pretty set for the next 2.5 seasons means Dana Brown has time. ~75% of the prospects in the system will be gone by Opening Day 2028. I agree that Paredes is the prime extension candidate on the roster. I wouldn’t trade Pena until his last year (like Tucker); that return was good enough.
