[Pain] HUGE, self-inflicted Recession incoming due to Trump/Musk

Consumer spending contracted for the first time in over a year, says BofA’s Liz Everett Krisberg

 

musk could end up the biggest loser from trump's revenge tax if foreign investors start dumping stock.

 

How we doing, recession prognosticators? Trump's trade policy wins, foreign policy wins, and legislative actions are propelling the stock market to record highs. Just as I predicted. It's nice to have competent leadership back in the White House. I'm over here stacking wins as you change out your cat's litter box in anger.

S&P 500, Nasdaq head for records
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...ed-rate-cut-bets-boost-spirits-231502909.html


GOOD DAY

 

Wall Street has caught on to Trump's TACO , Trump Again Chickening Out, stance, particularly as it relates to tariffs

Trump TACO begets more Trump TACO

,​

heading back to the record level when Biden was in office

 

Historic Rebound Sends S&P 500 to New Highs
The index’s first record since February follows a rapid and dramatic recovery from April’s tariff-induced selloff

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...2?st=3QrnAX&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

It feels like 2022 again. Stocks up. Prices up. Economic mood Down.

 

As the stock market kisses all time highs, read this wonderful piece on how Trump outsmarted the leading economists on tariffs. Trump continues to stack wins while the liberals change their cats' litter box in anger.


Wall Street economist who ripped Trump admits prez may have ‘outsmarted all of us’ on tariffs
https://nypost.com/2025/06/27/busin...ump-may-have-outsmarted-all-of-us-on-tariffs/

A prominent Wall Street economist who had slammed President Trump’s tariffs earlier this year now says that the president may have “outsmarted all of us” with his controversial trade policies.

Torsten Sløk, chief economist at investment giant Apollo Global Management, said that while the uncertainty surrounding trade policy has already started to weigh on the economy, Trump could lower tariffs on most of the US trading partners while using the levies to boost federal revenue.

Sløk suggested in a recently posted analysis that the administration’s approach may be more strategic than previously thought.

The optimistic outlook stands in stark contrast to his earlier position.

In April, Sløk warned that Trump’s tariffs could trigger a recession by summer, particularly harming American small businesses and potentially halting the flow of goods from China to the US, leading to layoffs and a broader economic slowdown.

This time around, Sløk suggested that one potential move could be to keep 30% tariffs on Chinese imports while imposing 10% tariffs on all other countries — offering them a 12-month window to reduce non-tariff barriers and liberalize trade access.

“Extending the deadline one year would give countries and US domestic businesses time to adjust to the new world with permanently higher tariffs,” Sløk wrote.

“It would also result in an immediate decline in uncertainty, which would be positive for business planning, employment, and financial markets.”

Beyond calming volatile markets, Sløk notes that such a move could deliver a sizable boost to US government revenue. He estimates the plan could generate $400 billion in annual tax revenue — a figure that could help offset budget deficits without raising domestic taxes.

“This would seem like a victory for the world and yet would produce $400 billion of annual revenue for US taxpayers,” he wrote.

“Trade partners will be happy with only 10% tariffs and US tax revenue will go up. Maybe the administration has outsmarted all of us.”

Kush Desai, a White House spokesperson, told The Post via email: “President Trump was right all along? Many such cases!”

Trump announced on Friday that the US has signed a new trade agreement with China. The full text of the agreement has not been made public, and details remain limited.

At the same time, the Trump administration faces a looming July deadline as its 90-day pause on tariffs with several global trading partners nears expiration.

Talks are ongoing with 18 nations, including the European Union, Japan, India, Vietnam and Malaysia. Some progress has been reported, such as a framework deal with the UK and early-stage agreements with Vietnam and India, though most deals are not finalized.

If negotiations fall through, the US is prepared to reimpose or raise tariffs. Analysts are skeptical that meaningful deals can be completed on such an aggressive timeline, warning that most trade pacts typically require years of negotiation.

With uncertainty mounting, the administration may push discussions beyond the July cutoff — possibly into early September — while attempting to stabilize global trade relationships.

 

Personal wealth is down. Americans have less wealth today than before.

 

ICE is the only place to get a job these days.

 

lmao

 

this year, thru May, the U.S. has added an average of 124Kjobs a month. That is down from last year’s average of 168K a month –
a reflection in part of how stop-start tariffs, government layoffs, and an immigration crackdown could be catching up to the job market.

the flip side to this recent declining job creation data, most probably, will pave the way for
the Fed Chair to cut the discount rate​

 

Or maybe TACO Trump will just pause his tariffs threats for another 90 days?

Just saying.

 

Less than 24 hours after your post... hiring booms and unemployment rate ticks down to 4.1%. The stock market is touching even higher new levels (record levels).

OOPS

Hiring Defied Expectations in June, With 147,000 New Jobs
Revisions showed hiring was stronger in previous months than initially thought, and unemployment fell to 4.1%
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs-report-june-2025-unemployment-economy-c1f54222

 

induced by Trump TACO (Trump Again Chickening Out) actions. Wall Street has caught on to TACO, thus the rapid rebound

 

So the job numbers were revised from -33,000 to +147,000, that’s not suspicious.

not revised so much as one was private industry (ADP) and the other is government reported. Interesting that private industry showed a loss and the government showed growth.

Supposedly, there were 70,000+ new government jobs last month.

 

while the ADP job data are related to hirings by the private sector, this relates to total hirings in the economy

. which includes Gov hirings
​

thus, one can infer that

the significant hirings by the Gov can be attributed to Gov hiring back workers unconstitutionally fired by Elon's folly, DOGE​

 

Explaining away great news. LMAO

What Trump's doing is working. (It worked in his 1st term) Get the BBB passed and Powell out of the way and the economy will really take off.

 

it is above 2 bits' head



btw,

when Biden admin was increasing over 16 million jobs in his 4 year,
2 bits had parroted the convenient false narrative that it was due to re-hiring and gov hires​

 

See the edited part of my post.

Lets keep the winning going.

 

This man is thinking like an Industrialist.

We are entering the Golden Era of wealth creation. Real wealth creation for all classes -- not inflation-driven asset inflation for the rich (like what COVID/Biden gave us). Conservative economic policy simply works. Investors know it. The market knows it. Independent voters know it. El_Conquistador definitely knows it.


GOOD DAY