And if you were a player, you'd be advised to consider that Bregman signed that deal after 2018.... and if that's what the Astros are offering now 7 years later, with salary increases/etc., that maybe he should get a better agent.
I think its been proven that if you pay market rate for talent... you'll retain players. Whether it be Altuve, JV, Bregman, Yordan, Hader, etc. When Crane makes real offers, players listen. The Astros really should try and lock him up though... a lot will change in the CBA over the next 2 years and all these contracts will end up being grandfathered into a 'different' system that may not be as team friendly in terms of "controlled" years or arbitration.
Bregman was 2nd in MVP voting behind Trout with over a 1.000 OPS and 41 homeruns along with the defense. He almost had a 9 WAR that season. You forget how good he was when he got the extension.
Not in 2018 he wasn’t. That was 2019 after he already signed it. (Although he had a really awesome year in 2018 as well). And it was extremely fair/market rate at the time because the Astros brass was smart enough to foresee this and also was smart enough to actually offer a deal that any player (or agent) would be an idiot to pass up (even including the recent off-season when everybody thought Bregman had screwed himself). While Pena isn’t the offensive phenom Bregman was… he’s a better defensive player (in a more valuable position), he’s proven to be more durable, he’s a big game player (whatever that means), and he’s obviously not a finished product given how he has been able to cut down his K’s and continue to make adjustments.
2018 he was 5th place in MVP voting so still the stud. Bregman was proven and had the pedigree of being a top pick. Pena is a proven glove but not a proven bat. This is a career year for him and his OPS isn't even close to .900. If he declines an extension, he's betting that this is the beginning and not a career year.
The point is that after one breakout season, the Astros offered top dollar for the FA years to Bregman in 2022 dollars even though it was 2018. (Also it’s pure revisionist history if anybody thought Bregman would be the power hitter that he developed into when drafted… most said high floor, not as high ceiling… and plenty were concerned whether he’d outperform the contract for the duration). Pena is tracking towards a top 10 MVP finish as well. He’s the most dynamic leadoff hitter in baseball right now and likely will win the gold glove at one of the hardest positions. The Astros already have him locked up for another 3 years regardless. But you have to make the offer make sense to buy out those more valuable FA years. They don’t have to offer top FA dollars to Pena now… but they also don’t need to offer 2018 dollars for FA years that are 2028-2031. The main issue continue to be that there is still a bit of contract stagnation in baseball unless you’re the elitist of the elite (Ohtani, Soto, best pitchers…)… and every other all-star will get lumped into a category such as this. (Hence why work stoppage is not an “if”)
Or these contracts may end more team friendly in the arbitration years. I can definitely see a work stoppage on the horizon.
Nope. You are correct. Astros 1 in K/9 and K/BB. That’s the best test of true skill and true outcomes and we are acing it. The only teams who have allowed less runs than us all play in pitcher friendly parks and we are in a 4% tilted hitters park. If you look at just the current roster it’s considerably better than the yearly totals as well. It’s all good news from research- I just have to frame it and finish the writing and conclusions.
They’ll likely settle on less team controlled years/earlier FA… or some sort of system that favors teams to offer earlier extensions for more dollars vs. what is counted against an eventual tax/cap (more in line with the NBA/NFL). There is zero incentive for small-mid market teams to attempt to sign their own players… and other than security from injury…. Zero incentive for players to work on those sort of extensions for teams that largely will want to trade them/reset/cost-save whenever they’re not a for-sure contender. But its not the Dodgers/Yankees that pushed this over the edge… its the Pirates, Reds, Rays, Marlins, and A’s.
I’d argue as I always do that you are high on the arb years. I have 5/105 as essentially 2/30 for the final 2 arb years (something like 12 then 18- he’s only making 4M this year) and then 3/75. that’s a completely fair deal for the player to lock in and guarantee generational wealth 2.5 years early. fyi- allegedly the early year number started at 5/45 and Peña deservedly laughed at that.
I’m sorry I thought you were saying he was going to get 20 per year for 40 total. I’m saying 30 total. You e been wildly higher than me for guys like Brown so I thought you were going high again- sorry I misread that.
Your term "locking in generational wealth" assumes that he's not going to be wealthy, regardless. His absolute downside, if he refuses the contract, if he gets hurt in the next two years, he's still going to have made >$10m in his career by the time he hits 30. Probably more like >$30m, like you said, through arbitration. That's going to be enough money for him, and his kids, to live well for the rest of their lives. He's not risking being destitute, or his kids, or his kids' kids, being destitute, because he didn't grab the brass ring when he could. He's going to be set financially by the time he finishes his arb years. Hell, he's earning more this year than most earn in a lifetime. That 3/75 isn't close to what his market is going to be if he continues to hit like he is doing so far. $25m/year sets his market too low at the age of 30, with 4.6 WAR in half a season this year. He'd be betting against himself when the odds are heavily on his side to exceed those numbers.
He signed the extension before that season though, right? I recall it happening in spring training 2019. No way he signs an extension after a season like that and he hits free agency after 2022 instead
I am higher on guys that haven’t entered arbitration yet. For guys who have already entered arbitration the existing salaries impact the raises they get (imho) so I’m lower on them. Brown’s pre-arbitration performance is higher than Peña’s so I expect him to get a much higher first year number to build off of.
When there’s this much variability amongst casual to hardcore fans on what certain players should be paid… whether it’s 2018 dollars, 2025 dollars or 2028 dollars…. It’s a stark reflection of how broken the economics of baseball truly are. No real middle/upper class… some former big market teams now trying to slum it…. The truly big market teams able to outspend in every phase (including minor league development)… and the small market teams never going to evolve into anything but (despite constant increasing franchise valuations, all of them have new stadiums, etc.).
10M or 12M, earned as a w2 earner with no deductions means he's getting home with like 6 or 8. That's not generational wealth and I suspect at some point in time in his life he would have to work again. It's not abject poverty or anything, but it's a really bad case scenario if it happened. Hell, he could get Dicki Thon'd between here and the off season and then he doesn't even get that. None of those are likely scenarios. A likely scenario that would be bad for him? He tears up a knee, loses a step defensively, his luck this year evaporates (he's raised a level but he's also getting very lucky v his expected stats- I think he's turned himself into a 5 or 6 war player- this year he's pacing 9 War right now) and nobody wants to offer him a big ass deal for 1 great year in 2025 and merely good years or decent years in 26 and/or 27- he's got a bit of an injury history now and he's 30 or 31 and he gets a bunch of 3/50 offers. That's at least as likely as this being his new level and him getting 10/250 or something. Don't get it wrong- I'm not saying 5/105 was his top value right now. I'm saying it absolutely is a fair deal for him to eliminate 100% of his risk of never getting the big pay day. I think that's an incredibly fair number and I can see why they settled at that. If I was the Astros I'd do 3/60, 4/90, 5/110, 6/130 or 7/150. Anything more than that I'd tell him to go earn more than that- that's fair with the risk premium.
Me too. I just think it's going to be 40 and not 60 or 70 or whatever you had over arb. I just misread you- like I said- there.
With the way MLB is currently structured as a businessman, I cant blame owners for taking the profits. Even if they spent money they aren't going to beat the Dodgers/NYM/Yankees/Red Sox etc... and win WS.
