While Walter's start was a big letdown, I was actually impressed with Gusto yesterday. He has been tinkering with his pitch mix and I think he has solved some of the issues that plagued him early on in doing so. For instance, he (.283) has a lower xwOBA in June than either Brown (.288) or Valdez (.291).
I was hating on Gusto yesterday when he gave up those HR, but I also ended up impressed. He’s 60 innings into the big leagues and both his xERA and xFIP are under 4. He striking out 10 batters per 9 innings. He profiles as a solid average big league pitcher who almost all teams would be fine with as their 5th or 6th SP. Gordon is 35 innings in an has an xERA and xFIP around 3.5, so he has be really really good. I think his next 3-4 starts will tell us just how good he’s gonna be. Even after laying that egg, Walter’s xFIP is 2.52. He’s still getting established and only at 23 innings, so we will have to wait at least another month before we can draw any conclusions about him, but I remain very bullish on him.
Yeah, too early to really say for either of these three guys, but they each show a potential ceiling no one would have guessed entering this season. Pretty wild given how difficult it is to develop quality starting pitching for most orgs. Very hard to suck in this league if you can keep pulling quality SP out of your ass year after year. Also, the Angels hitters just seemed to be hot this weekend. Every mistake was getting pounded.
It’s gonna take at least 4 weeks of minor league rehab for any of Arrighetti, Garcia, Javier, or France to be ready to pitch in the majors, so the absolutely earliest any of them will be back is the last week in July, but more like early August, and that’s if they go out on rehab assignment next week. The odds of another current rotation member getting hurt by then are pretty high. And the odds of one or more of those injured guys having a setback is really high. Houston may end up going to a 6 man rotation but I will be utterly shocked if more than 3 guys from that current injured group are ever in the rotation at the same time.
Trammell has a chance to be a good 11th-12th position player. Lefthanded bench bat, baserunning value, can play all 3 OF positions. He’s a good candidate for a tandem of LH LF/2B that can be used to hide Altuve defensively and balance the lineup. Whitcomb needs to be playing every day in the minors or otherwise traded.
Brown layed a half season full of eggs. It takes time for pitchers to figure out what works and doesn't work against major league hitting long term I'm happy with all our pitchers. They have all over performed which is why we have a great record with Alvarez injured and being a below replacement player when he did play.
I think age is a big factor in how long it takes a pitcher to stabilize in the big leagues; Brown was breaking in at 24-25 so it made sense that he might not peak or figure things out for a year or two. Walter is an older prospect who probably will be pretty stable after ~40ip. Gusto and Gordon (both the same age as Hunter Brown) are a little younger and so maybe have some more variance, but both guys are pretty high floor/low ceiling types relative to Brown so I would expect them to be pretty stable after ~40ip as well.
I mean- if any one of the 3 is your 5th guy in the rotation, congrats on the development and that's great to spend so little on a big league caliber starting pitching- great value. I would like to think if those guys all become average you could trade the other two for a couple left handed hitting platoon bats with a lot of club control left plus a bullpen guy which would balance the team up pretty nicely. Really, all we are missing is a good LHH for the platoon in the OF and at 2B and maybe a really good RHP for the 6th inning and this team has no holes (except maybe 1B if Walker is permanently cooked- which- I still think he might not be- especially if he hits 7th for you. Maybe Melton is the LHH platoon OF and Garcia is the 7th inning guy come playoff time. It would be nice to have a full complement and see what this team is. I had 92-97 wins preseason but that might have undersold us if we would have had normal awesome Yordan. I almost am at the point in time in saying you don't even need to factor in injuries to Wesneski and Blanco b/c what replaced them has been just fine- so on some level who cares. I think Javier is definitely a step up from what we have back there and I suspect Arrighetti is a step up, but that's projection more than actuality at this point. I'm pretty comfortable with my projection.
If this roster is fully healthy and everybody is performing to their x-numbers, this team is stacked. Because that would mean elite Yordan, very good Yainer, and above average Walker on offense, where Melton/Doobie/Guillemette/Trammell serve as a more than fine 9 hole LF/2B tandem to hide Altuve. And it means an overflowing rotation of Brown, Framber, McCullers, Javier, Walter, Arrighetti, Gordon, Gusto, and Garcia that pushes Ort off the roster. This is probably the most relaxed I’ve been going into the deadline in several years. They have 2 clear places they can improve the roster but are not in any position to have to be desperate. They are in a really good spot.
Yep. @IdStrosfan wrote a pretty good trade piece part two that I'm fixing to post once the pictures get cleaned up where he goes through what's upgradeable and what's not. Pretty much every spot is impossible to upgrade with any ammunition on hand except what you mentioned, and anything else we might need is hanging out on the IL but expected back this year so on some level why bother. I know I'm on an island but I see that stacked team that you talk about if healthy and I trade Framber if LMJ is back healthy on July 1 and Arrightetti and Javier are polishing up their rehab assignments and ready to go- if I could get a Cam Smith package back. I know that won't happen so that means the worst case with a healthy team at the deadline is probably the 1 or 2 seed in the AL, as good a chance to win it all as anyone, and a roster set up for next year where your only decision points are at backup catcher and do you trust Bryce Mathews or not. Oh- and you have 30M or so to spend- I think- after arbitration raises get paid, and get to the tax. That's not a bad place to be for 2026, and 2027 looks to be pretty damn good too, but after that it starts to get pretty damn dicey imo. Whatever- that makes for a 13 or 14 year window for sure and if we can continue to develop arms we can probably spend for the bats, but I sure would like to trade a walk year ace for another position playing Cam Smith plus an arbitration caliber Paredes. That deal was so huge that if we don't win at least an AL pennant I will probably regret Framber not being moved.
My hope: Minor but effective deadline adds that don’t cost major prospects. Ideally a controllable LHH who can play 2B. SP all get healthy and they finish the season overloaded there. Houston gets to at least the ALCS. Hunter wins CYA, Framber gets QO’ed, Houston has 5 of the top ~95 picks in the 2026 draft. In December Houston trades 1-2 of Arrighetti, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Gusto, Walter, or Gordon to add 2 really good infield prospects to the upper levels of the farm. They go into the 2026 season with: a stacked 26 man roster, an above average farm system, a pending mass influx of talent in the next draft, and only 1 underwater contract on the books (Walker).
Hunter doesn't even need to win the CY for Houston to get the picks right? Isn't a top 3 spot in the voting good enough? Or did I make that up in my head?
Honestly if Melton can turn into an average bat and McCullers, Javier, and Alvarez get healthy, we are stacked and would be at least even with Detroit for favorites in the AL. New York is still too feast or famine with Judge.
