Yordan, Javier, and Lance are the only ones who matter. That Yordan is not even hitting yet is not good.
Yainer is a catcher version of Altuve. It's fine when they are three+ spots apart in the lineup. But back to back is tough. When they are both on, great. Neither works a count to save their life.
Ain't no fastball high enough Ain't no breaker low enough Ain't no slider wide enough To keep me from hackin' at you, babe
Hope yall liked it- took a couple hours with research and writing. Basically looked at whose lucky, whose unlucky, and if a look at their history would tell us if the luck is something we should expect, same with the unluck (This goes a lot to recent Yainer conversations- he's just unlucky and it's going to have his actual converge with expected imo). Enjoy. Read, Share, subscribe.
Altuve is bottom 2 percent in hard hit rate and bottom 10 percent in EV and somehow is on pace to hit over 25 homeruns. How does that make any sense? He's a magician. Paredes is similar but not as low.
Yep. That's why I went and looked at the entirety of their careers and analyzed actual v expected. They always outperform. For Paredes it's totally and completely pull side fly ball- that's the most valuable hit profile in baseball and it's basically at it's absolute apex of value at the Ice Box (or Fenway) for RHH, probably Yankee Stadium for LHH. Pena has shown no ability to outrun his expected stats over his career- he's probably going to come crashing down from MVP type guy to "merely" all star that's more glove than bat- but that's bat is just fine. Yainer has never been "unlucky" there's nothing about him that would make me think he would be going forward. Christian Walker has always been "unlucky" but never close to this unlucky. I would guess his actual and expected converge which is good news for him.
I've been obsessed with it lately, but Cam's success is unique. No one is even an average bat with a launch angle as low as him. If he didn't hit the ball as hard as Judge and Ohtani, he would have a .200 batting average.
And- his babip is crazy high. Which is what happens when you hit hard line drives and ground balls. Fly balls are pretty much only good if they go over the fence or are banging off the fence. I'm really really excited about him. I think that other stuff will come as far as launch angle and whip it around to pull. I'm still waiting for that to come for Yainer and Correa though- it just never did. If it does those guys are 40 or 50 HR monsters- Cam's the same way, to me.
It's interesting that Pena, Cam and Meyers have the exact same BAPIP. Maybe the hitting coaches are emphasizing hard hits regardless of angle and direction.
Altuve gets grace because he's an elite hacker for the last 13 years with 2 rings and an MVP along the way. Yanier is slightly above average. He needs to be more selective. That being said, Yanier has done a heck of job with the pitchers this season.
I know Garcia is kinda fat but he's still pretty darn good for a depth guy. Javier throwing 95 mph is pretty darn good since that was his top end when he was healthy and throwing no hitters.
When I did a deep dive on Meyers that was my take away- that with him being fast and his batted ball profile with fly balls almost completely disappearing- I'd expect something like a 335 babip profile from him (I think his is like 350). Problem with this is when fly balls go away so does power- and he has a pretty gross iso of 104. You better not strike out and you better hit 335 or 350 on balls in play if you want to be an average to slightly above average offensive player with no fly balls/thump. I think it's a tradeoff that makes sense for Jake. It should keep him decent for the rest of our club control time, but I don't think it's a skill that will age well. That's on him, though, to figure out his next evolution. I sure as **** hope they aren't trying to do that with Cam. He needs to elevate, he needs to pull, and he needs to hit 40 home runs and be an MVP candidate.
They are getting there in different ways, but Meyers doesn't have even average bat speed. Cam on the other hand has 90+ percentile bat speed which is why he can hit opposite field line drive home runs. It also allows him to wait a little longer before his swing to hunt for good pitches. Cam has some really elite skills. He can do what Bregman does in terms of pitch identification, but he hits as hard as a young Correa. He has MVP candidate level skills. He just needs to make that JD Martinez style adjustment to his swing.
