Israel conducts preemptive airstrikes hitting Iranian targets

Ottomans lost every battle there is for the last 200 300 years before the Sevres / WW1, only avoided collapsing because western powers were afraid it will be invaded by the Russians. Even then, they couldn't realize Sevres. What makes you think they can do it to Iran? Hell, America couldn't even topple Taliban.

 

Machiavelli wrote about this scenario. Iran has a strong central government which means it can muster a strong initial force but as a result is especially vulnerable if that government is weakened or falls. Look at the collapse of Iraq and now Syria.
Afghanistan has a high degree of decentralization. This means it cannot muster a strong initial force, but it is particularly difficult to replace the regime.

With the amount of disinformation that came out from both sides in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, I have no way to tell what is accurate in this conflict. Both Iran and Israel are claiming strategic successes, and both sides have every reason to lie.

Spoiler

Machiavelli gives two examples of governance: the Turks and the French. These have parallels in modern bureaucracy, especially in the civil service.

“The examples of these two governments in our time are the Turk and the King of France. The entire monarchy of the Turk is governed by one lord, the rest are his servants. He divides his kingdom into provinces and sends out different administrators, changing them as he chooses. But the King of France is at the centre of a long-established order of nobles, who are acknowledged by their own subjects, and beloved by them. These lords have their own prerogatives, and the can the king only take these away at his peril.”

The Turkish model is more centralized than the Frankish model.

The Turks, Machiavelli claimed, were governed like today’s internal municipal structure: a senior staff member runs a department, with minor officials running sub-departments. Managers and other staff may get rotated to different positions within the department so that none has any long-lasting power or experience in one place. Because they are all salaried employees, and owe their allegiance to their department head rather than a politician, it is difficult to control the service by encouraging dissent and rebellion from within.

You can only control the department by replacing its head with someone more pliable or more supportive to your goals. Replacing a department head may be a tough battle: that executive will have allies on council who oppose you. Dismissals have legal implications that may deter others from supporting you. However, once that is done, the rest of the staff fall into line: the department is easy to control by replacing just one person.

“He who considers both of these states will recognize great difficulties in seizing the state of the Turk, but, once it is conquered, great ease in holding it.”

The French, however, had a decentralized system where individual barons had their own power and their loyalty to the king fluctuated according to personal agendas and what the king did for any particular baron. This is much like our committee and board structure, where a certain independence and freedom are encouraged or even legislated, and council has an arm’s-length relationship that deflects direct control (for example, council representatives may have no vote on a committee).

While it is relatively easy to gain control of any particular board by changing appointments, that will not extend your power to other boards, throughout the administration or far into the bureaucracy. Wresting control of the transportation board will not give you control over the finance committee, or the HR committee, or the parks and recreation department, for example.

The allegiance of any board or committee may be to the mayor, may be council as a whole, to former councils, or may simply be to its chair and its own agenda.

If you do gain control over a board, you have to be careful not to impinge on the privileges and authority it has enjoyed, because that will only cause other boards and committees to unite and fight you in order to protect their privileges from your future predation. It is much harder to gain control over the entire board and committee structure than to gain control over a department. And you can expect the remaining boards and their supporters will conspire against you when opportunity arises.

“The lords that remain make themselves the heads of fresh movements against you, and as you are unable either to satisfy or exterminate them, that state is lost whenever time brings the opportunity.”

 

Just a question but . . . why would he have been "off limits" to begin with
If you are war . .. you are at war

Rocket River

 

https://iranwire.com/en/news/142210...ndon-enrichment-but-needs-a-face-saving-exit/

In an exclusive interview, a high-ranking Iranian diplomat revealed that Iran’s military and political leadership are prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime.

“But we need a face-saving solution,” said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The real priority of the Supreme Leader and our government is survival. The ongoing cycle of attacks and counterattacks between Israel and Iran will inevitably weaken our military, security forces, economy, public morale, and ultimately, the government,” he said.

“The army and the IRGC will inevitably lose control of the situation, and no one knows what might happen next. We do not want to repeat Saddam Hussein’s mistake. We are ready to negotiate,” added the diplomat, who, like many Iranian diplomats, previously served in the country’s intelligence services.

When asked why he chose to speak with IranWire, the diplomat said, “I’m worried about the future of our country and our people. Hopefully, you can share my message - not as a representative of the Iranian government, but as a concerned citizen - with the rest of the world.”

 

Which Side sent them?

Rocket River

 

I saw a clip where Trump was speaking to some Jewish group during his campaign and said that it used to be the case where if u said anything bad about Israel it would be the end of your career, and we need to get back to that.

Um, excuse me?

Is this the United States of Israel???

Why are they so special?

u can talk badly about the United States here all u want, but Israel, a foreign nation, is where we should draw the line

outrageous

 

What we know

• CONFLICT ENTERS FOURTH DAY:Israel and Iran have begun a new round of attacks, as the conflict between the two heavily armed rivals enters its fourth day.
• MOUNTING DEATH TOLL: At least 224 people have been killed since Israel began bombing Iran on Friday, Iranian state media reported, while Iranian retaliatory strikes have killed at least 24 people in Israel.
• SENIOR IRANIANS KILLED: Israeli airstrikes have wiped out much of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s inner circle.
• ISRAELI WARNING: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz accused Tehran of targeting Israeli civilians and said “residents of Iran will pay the price.”
• IRANIAN EXECUTION: Iran has executed a man convicted of spying for Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency reported.

 

Iran would never issue such warnings

 

Unironically, Iran did warn the residents of Haifa before launching a salvo.

 

K

 

Iran wants to be an independent regional power who has beneficial relationships with other major powers, not a junior partner in a broader axis. That is their right. It comes with benefits. But it also comes with downsides...

 

And already back on air. Unshakeable people.

 

was thinking of a possibility of Trump impeachment led by GOP for his reluctantly to fight for Israel

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...nd-us-that-it-wants-talks-end-to-hostilities/


Report: Iran urgently signaling to Israel and US that it wants talks, end to hostilities

 

China is supplying Iran with SAM batteries?

 

I wish Iran would waive the white flag, they clearly cannot compete with Israel, especially if we "help" Israel. It's one thing when they each fire at "military" targets but when they start hitting civilians that's just a step to far IMO

I don't agree with Israel justifying a preemptive strike to start this whole thing. If trump would not have stopped the Iran Program years ago, we may not be in this mess to begin with

 

**** off Israel!