I and others have pointed out that the CBA rules for the luxury tax/aprons do not line up with what you're saying. You are living in the past when teams could spend as much as they want like Cuban did as long as the owner is willing to spend money. If you look at the most recent CBA this is clearly not the case. And keep on arguing a point that was only true in past years just make it sound like you are living in the past. You can laugh all you want at people if and when the Rockets sign FVV for a lot of money. But you should also then be prepared to not laugh when Tilman starts cost cutting in a year or two because he cries poor and don't want to pay taxes.
I feel like folks are missing the point. It’s not a question of we don’t need Fred; cut him loose and start Reed. I don’t think most people would think that’s a good idea. It’s a matter of at what number is Fred willing to walk away and play for assuredly a team in a less desirable situation. What’s his alternative? What’s Fred’s BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement)? I don’t think Fred gets $30 mil on the market. And if he somehow had that offer, does he want to leave Houston for a less desirable situation if we are offering like $27? You don’t just give a guy like Fred a number without understanding his market. He’s coming off earning almost $90 mil on a 2-yr deal in which he played badly the second year. Fred is not a $30 mil player. If he thinks he is, make him find that money on the market. If he does than it’s a different story. I can live with 3yrs/$90 with the 3rd yr as a team option. The rockets would be stupid to pay Fred 3 yrs guaranteed at $30.
i think one of the main reasons FVV gets $30M+ AAV is because then his contract matches (or could be easily combined with others) in a consolidation trade. It's one of the few reasons I can see for paying him $30M+. Commodification at its core. Not just a player, but a salary slot / asset. (Morey at his finest) If you accept that (Stone playing chess not checkers) then I become more comfortable with the numbers I am hearing. Let's hope I am not frog in a pot on the stove. IYKYK.
It is clear that if we don't have FVV at the beginning of next season, we are likely going to lose many games more than if we had him. Amen and Reed were not ready to be full-time starting PG at the end of last season. Unless they have a miracle leap in the offseason, they likely won't be ready when next season starts. I think that it will take at least half of a season for Amen to hone the skills and probably longer for Reed. So it is understandable that the Rockets would want to keep FVV for at least half a season more. There are two ways to do that. (1) Pick up his option. If the young guys develop fast, they may be able to trade him by the deadline. If they can't trade him, the worst scenario is let him walk after the season. Very little harm done, unless you want to extend Jabari/Tari before that time. And if they want to keep him after next season, they can still negotiate a new contract (although the leverage would be with FVV in an unrestricted FA market). Honestly, if Amen and/or Reed doesn't show that he is capable of being a competent PG, we are pretty much screwed if FVV's option is picked up. We'll be forced to overpay FVV again or pay a big price to get a good PG elsewhere. (2) Decline the option and negotiate an extension. This appears to be what the Rockets want to do at this point. If they can get FVV to sign a relatively cheap contract to keep him for at least two more years, it will buy some more time for the young players to develop or failing that find a good trade to get a good PG. This seems to be the most contentious part among the posters here. Nobody wants to overpay. But what is FVV's value varies widely for different people. In some people's mind, FVV is trash and worth pretty much nothing. A few posters believe that he is worth upward of 30M a year. Both positions IMO are too extreme. Those who think they won't give him more than the MLE might as well just pick up his option and let him walk afterward. He is not going to accept such a deal unless the length of the contract is extremely long, which is probably worse than a bigger amount on a much shorter length. IMO FVV will be able to get something around 25M in the open market. That's what I'm willing to pay him, and no more than 2 years guaranteed. I can be wrong, of course, and whoever thinks they for certain knows what the amount should be is self-deluded. Nobody can really predict the future market. You can only make so-called "educated" guesses.
What do you mean? Confused. Didn't they basically throw the last 5 games of the season? They could have had 55 wins. Until your playoff position is locked, what regular season games are "meaningless"?
Most regular season games are meaningless, playoff position means nothing when you failed to develop your players and just end up becoming the 7th 2 seed ever to get bounced by a 7 seed. If they did a better job focusing on what matters maybe they win when it matters. If their goal is to hang a "won 50 games" banner, that's fine i guess.... but most have higher goals.
Signing FVV to anything higher than $20M is going to force the team to take a step back. If teams that make the finals, like the Pacers and the Celtics, don’t want to pay the LT, you can bet first-round fodder like the Rockets don’t want to. And to keep this team under the tax, we would have to jettison Adams, Tate, Green, Holiday, and possibly Cam (all above replacement level) with minimum salary, negative production, warm bodies. Not even Thibs thinks that’s a good idea.
This is why JVG and Tom Thibedaux will never win rings, they over play mediocre veterans over younger players with higher ceilings. DD
The Rockets were +6 net rating with Amen and no FVV last year. When Jabari was also on the court, they were +9 net rating. I'm adding the Jabari caveat because FVV's injury came after Jabari's, so the Rockets were down 2 starters when FVV was out. The Rockets hit a rough patch early when FVV went out, but actually recovered decently later on. So assuming the Reed is as good as the Rockets brass think he will be next year, Amen make some strides in the offseason, and the Rockets sign a decent PG in FA like Brogdan, Tre Jones, Schroeder, or ideally CP3 if he's willing to take Tilman's money, etc. there really shouldn't be any dropoff. And probably improvement since any incoming FA PG would shoot a hell of a lot better than FVV did last regular season.
Nobody and I mean nobody has explained how FVV can get 25m on the open market. Who is the team that is desperate enough to free up the cap space to sign him? Clearly the only two teams with the cap space currently won’t want him. Please share with me the candidates that need FVV and want to pay him premium to play for them. I do agree, I would rather just exercise the team option than extend him.
One may argue that the stretch when FVV was out happened to be a soft stretch. I went back to look at our records. We were 8-9 without him (not counting the single missed games here and there). Of the 8 wins, only 3 were against playoffs teams. So strength of schedule could be a factor. My eye test tells me that the offense was quite chaotic when he's on the bench. I was assuming there're no other roster changes. Of course, if we are able to get a good vet PG, then we don't need him as much. I posted somewhere agreeing to a post about having cheaper options out there. I like Brogden but he's making 22.5M, not much cheaper. And is often injured. Tre Jones and Schroder aren't good enough, might as well play Amen and Reed. CP3 would be ideal if he is willing to come. If Stone can find one of those cheaper vets who can do about the same as FVV, by all means. Maybe that can be a leverage we can use to get FVV to accept a cheaper deal.
We already have the leverage. He either signs for less than 20m or you let him try to get more on the open market. There will be no takers.
Teams like Utah, Portland, Washington, Chicago (just on top of my head) need better PG. I don't have time to research on these teams' cap situation. Like I said, we don't know how much a team is willing to pay him until he's on the open market. He is not, so we can only kind of guess. by gauging what kind of money other guards at FVV's level are getting paid. Also, just because a team doesn't have cap room to sign him outright doesn't mean they can't target him using SnT if they really want him. I am not totally against picking up the team option and let him walk next year. It depends on how confident we are about our young guys being able to be ready in one year.
That's not leverage. That's just your opinion. It would only be leverage if both Stone and FVV have that same opinion.
Utah has a budding star in Collier, Chicago has two young Pg’s both better than FVV, Portland has Simones and Scoot, maybe Washington to hit their minimum salary requirements? Try again. I still don’t understand why anyone would make cap room to pay him.
Again, just because you don't understand doesn't mean nobody would. You seem to be of the opinion that FVV is worthless in the NBA nobody wants. That's certain not true. If that's true, Stone would have already declined his option and let him walk and looked elsewhere to solve our PG need. If a team like the Rockets think they need a guy like him, then it looks to me that some other teams would too.
Just because Ime is delusional about FVV’s worth doesn’t mean other teams are. Ime playing FVV 40m a game should give a clue and leaving Amen on the bench until an injury forced his hand should say it all about his ability as an evaluator of talent.
Ain’t nobody saying start Reed and just let Fred walk. I would say most want Amen to start, Jabari back at the 4, and Reed developed as much as possible or until proven otherwise. I also think most of us agree to have a stabilizer off the bench to help Amen / Reed. Whether that be FVV or somebody else. Hopefully somebody better for that money. I see CP3 recently. I’d say Ty Jerome Extending FVV to that money seems like a step backwards
Yes. I also think this is what most of us want. I’ve stated over and over that FVV would be a terrific backup PG. Unfortunately, I think there is no way that Ime demotes him to the bench.
I think the leverage for Fred is his $165M in career earnings; if you hardball him too hard, he has the financial resources to potentially sign a 1-year deal somewhere else at the MLE or so, save some mileage on his legs and contend for a championship, and try free agency next year when there's more money and potential landing spots, much like Brook Lopez leaving the Lakers when they signed LeBron. I know the history of players turning down long-term extensions in favor of 1-year prove-it deals outside of this has been pretty bad for the players, but this is also Mr. Bet-on-Yourself you're talking about here; if there is an active player who would try to do something like this, FVV would have to be close to the top of the list. At a certain point, the paycut just becomes too severe, such that you literally can't go back to the same locker room again with a straight face. No one wants to consider themselves washed; and at least if you go to a different team on reduced salary, you can spin it to yourself that you're seeking a different opportunity, or you can make that back later on by going on a deep playoff run and fitting into a new role. From the outside, we only see these guys as numbers on a cap sheet maximizing their future salary, but if at my job I was asked to take a 50% paycut, while still putting in the same amount of day-to-day effort, and spending the next six months mentoring one of my direct reports to eventually take over my role so they could fire me, my resignation letter would be typed and delivered by 5pm that day. Even if the new offer was still the best available based on other opportunities, I'd get the hell out, because the grass has got to be greener on the other side.
