I don’t argue that the Rockets value FVV more than a lot of fans do. I don’t see the other teams part. There are only about 5-10 teams that don’t already have a better Pg than FVV and none of those teams are in a position to pay Fred much more than the MLE. I will never see the point of bidding against ourselves.
The NBA salary cap is anticipated to rise about 10% next season (2025-2026) and 10% for the next few seasons at least. Last year (2024) it was $140 million.... next year it will be nearly $156 million..... then in 2026 $171 million and nearly $190 million in 2027. More importantly the luxury tax number for 2025 will be $188 million.... 2026 $207 million.... 2027... $228 million. So - when you take into account the contract of a player, you have to not only look at the impact on the first year, but each season after. So if we assume 3/100 for FVV ..... in the first season he will be about 20% of the cap.... season two he is 18%...... season three he is 15% ... More importantly, from a luxury tax standpoint he is 17%, 15% and like 14% Having said that - I would be perfectly fine signing Chris Paul if the Rockets go that route.
If the Rockets keep FVV at $33mil next year and waive Holiday, not re-sign Jeff Green or Adams, and just sign the 10th pick, they will have ~$10mil under the luxury tax. Meaning they cannot use even their own full MLE without Tilman paying the tax and start the repeater clock. In 2026 offseason, presumably there's an extension for both Jabari and Tari at a reasonable market number, the Rockets will be way over the luxury tax and will be pushing the 1st apron if not the second one. And if Amen is getting a max contract in 2 years... well, the Rockets would then be forced to dump either FVV or Jalen Green into someone's capspace presumably along with at least a 1st round pick. Or Tilman will really be hemorrhaging money. And the above scenario does not account for any outside improvement. Simply keeping the core as is and re-signing youngsters as they get off their rookie deals.
Yeah - I don't think the Rockets re-sign both Jabari and Tari. I also think that the Rockets are likely to move salary to make a trade for a bigger production player - a consolidation of players for fewer, but in theory, better players. That would happen either this year or next. So - IMO it most likely isn't really an issue in regards to FVV, but more an issue of the Rockets having a limited window to make moves before all of these younger players get too expensive.
Of the 3 major professional sports teams in Houston, I have by far the least amount of faith in the Rockets GM... so I could see FVV get a big new contract despite how dumb that would be.
Nook, You are a must read for me, but your math is off. $33,333,333/year for 3 years would equal 21.6%, 19.6%, and 17.8% of the salary cap assuming a starting salary cap of $154,647,000 for 2025/26 league year and 10% annual increases. Any significant addition in salary is going to push out other players going forward with Sengun & Green extensions starting next year - unless you assume that Fertitta is going into the luxury tax this offseason and going to be a luxury tax payer going forward. I like the idea of Chris Paul (or Tyus Jones) at something less than the MLTE and then develop Amen & Reed Sheppard as main ballhandlers. I am okay if we take a step back for future development.
I actually think that 25M per for 3 years with the last year TO is a reasonable contract for a guy like FVV. The question is not whether he's worth it but whether the Rockets should keep him for more than another year. I personally think keeping him for 2 more years on a reasonable contract is fine... if there's a plan to phase him out of the starting lineup and phase in the young players.
This is what a read on the multi-year salary cap analysis shows... Every addition of a new salary will require similar salary to be cut/traded going forward - and paying "market value" like in baseball or football can be a fool's game. You want to pay below market value for your players. The Rockets are in a fortunate situation where most of their salary is used on productive players on value contracts. Resigning Fred for what looks like full "market value" will set the Rockets back by forcing difficult choices on resigning Tari & Bari, not signing anyone using the MLTE, and not developing Reed Sheppard & Amen Thompson as ballhandlers.
$30 million in the 2025 cap may very well be around $20 million in the 2027 cap. I'm not too worried about the contract, I'm just more ready to lean into the next phase which will ultimately require consolidation and change. FVV could certainly continue to provide a floor of competency when paired with a more offensively impactful acquisition.
I know I’m going to be pissed off. They are going to make this huge mistake and it will make one of my favorite pastimes less enjoyable. After watching the entire re-build with an open mind and more patience than most, I will be beyond livid.
IMO, signing FVV to 33M/yr directly impacts our window. It limits it. They key question is: when do you start the repeater tax clock? Every young team has to delay starting that clock as long as possible. OKC is not going to start the tax clock until the season after next, 2026-27 (Shai age 28). Indiana is starting it next season (Haliburton age 26). San Antonio probably won't start the clock until 2028-29. If we sign FVV to $33M/yr we are forced to start the tax clock either this season or next season by the latest, with our best players age 23. Meaning we will need to be cutting salary, taking a step back, and closing our window right when Amen / Sengun are age 26 and entering their prime. Anything that pushes us into the tax before Amen's rookie extension hits limits our window. Overpaying FVV on multiple guaranteed years does that.
Agreed... my "overpay" comment in the tweet above is assuming an AAV in the 30's, based on the scenario suggested by Bima, where an extension was already agreed to at some time in the past, before this summer's league-capspace-landscape was known.
I am not saying that signing FVV makes no difference - I think it does, but I think it is secondary to what the Rockets do with their existing players, at some point they will have to consolidate and will not be able to pay everyone either way. I don't think they will come out and say it - but they don't want to take a step back next season, and they think they will take a step back without FVV or someone that good at PG. They obviously do not believe Sheppard is ready right now. As for the Thunder and Spurs - while it is true they are the Rockets competition, as things stand right this minute - I think the Thunder are well ahead of the Rockets, and the Spurs will be shortly without something major changing.
We have extensions to pay - if we have to, I could see us picking up his option that is the only thing I would consider. DD
We have Amen and Reed Sheppard. Between those two the pg problem should ideally be answered. I like the talent of a Jakucionis or a Fears but the question is if we get that guy what happens with Reed and Amen? What we have seen Ime isnt the guy to squeeze every drop of talent from the roster, he will have like 8-9 dudes he trusts and thats it.
Somebody in reddit broke it down we can pay the core 7 until Sengun's 2nd extension. https://www.reddit.com/r/rockets/s/POUhgrSnNf The whole notion we need to consolidate doesnt make sense because the guy we consolidate him for would make the same salary as the combined extensions. If for example we consolidate for Durant, his salary would be equal Jabari, Tari and Cam whitmore extensions combined. We dont really have anybody besides Amen projected to be the max guy but I believe the core 7 will all be outperforming their deals similar to Sengun who is prob gonna be the only non rookie all star making 38M next year. As for the Spurs people have been saying they gonna be gods since they got Wemby but all they've done is pick in the top 5 for 3 yrs straight.
We do have to consolidate if the Rockets intend to bring anyone of real substance from outside the organization into the fold - and at this point the Rockets need a franchise player that can score at a high clip. It really comes down to what the Rockets want to do and certain assumptions that are being made concerning roster construction.
I think the no 1 need is an offensive revamp tbh, at the age of Sengun and Amen there has never been a contender at 23 yr old, even OKC with KD era with 3 mvps never had one. What Im saying is Rox shouldnt be in a rush to contend cuz at their timeline it is too early. SGA is what, 26? Lebron and MJ won rings at 28. But everybody wants Amen and Sengun to be faster than those guys it doesnt make any sense. Like I said RN Coward is my pick cuz looks like Cam fell into Udoka's doghouse while Coward would be one of his fav players. Dude is tough, plays solid defense, has experience, and is also a really good spot up and ft shooter. I dont think we need a franchise guy I would rather bet on Amen and Sengun being a star than import somebody at high cost. The fact that we are bringing FVV back means the Rox still arent contenders, they still need that nanny. FVV won a ring but he isnt a championship level pg, he was a role player on that team behind Kawhi, Lowry, Siakam. If Rox are gonna be contenders that when either Amen or Reed are calling the shots at pg.
I think the idea of consolidation is to trade two (or more) young players before their rookie contracts expire for a good veteran. The assumption is that the young guys' salaries will blow up once they are eligible for the "real" NBA salary market while the vet's salary won't. Of course there is also the assumption that the young guys you trade away won't become irreplaceable stars. That part is what's dangerous. You don't want to be the team who traded away a Doncic, a SGA or a Haliburton and watch them become stars on another team.
