youtu.be/e2Lz9xctSBI Interesting Mock Offseason from Yossi Gozlan. I think this is mostly to show examples of how the Rockets would work around apron issues and add players (and not these are the best things to do). He has Rockets adding Booker, but I think that is mostly to show how it would work.
Trade (work on Fanspo) Houston in: Durant x Suns in: VanVleet / Landale / #10 pick(s) ________ Houston in: Cameron Johnson x Nets in: Dillon Brooks / 2nd Rd pick __________ Roster: 25/26 1) Amen............................Reed Sheppard / Holiday 2) Jalen Green..................Cam Whitmore 3) Cameron Johnson.......Tari Eason 4) Durant...........................Cameron Johnson / Tari Eason 5) Sengun..........................*Adams (re-sign) / N'Faly *Brook Lopez (signing)
I found the best trade possible that is realistic JJJ to rockets (filler Clarke / konchar) Durant/ (Tari or cam) and one 1st from Hou to grizzlies Suns get FVV and no 10 pick and more filler
I stopped watching after he proposed 3 or 4 yr extension for Fred at $34 mil per. Did anyone even watch the guy last year? Ridiculous doesn’t begin to describe it.
Agreed. Fred's AAV (if we re-sign/extend him) should be nowhere close to what we overpaid for him back when we were a dumpster fire. He went from Toronto's $20M-ish per year to over $40M per year with us. Who has the cap space to sign him to anything significant above the full MLE ($15M-ish)...? And for those that do would they even want to...? While I really like FVV, this dude is accepting the premise that he's taking a cut from his 'fair market value' by signing longer for an AAV "reduced to around $34M per year". If we sign Fred to a multi-year contract and tie up cap space (and possibly get too close to the aprons to flex the roster if an opportunity becomes available) then that's idiotic. When the aprons kicked in a couple of years ago the paradigm shifted in terms of team-building in a salary cap league. If this dude thinks FVV should be inked to, say, 3 years/$100M at this stage in his career coming off of the season he had (coupled with the lack of teams in a position to sign him into cap space) he's delusional.
I think the moral of the video was that even reducing FVV's contract to $34M AVV would make things much more flexible for the Rockets concerning aprons (i.e., not having to spend FRPs to move contracts into another team's cap space or trade exception). Granted, I think he will be in the $20-30M AVV with the third year being a team option probably declining in value. If you look at what he did, change the FVV contract to $25M AAV, Booker to Giannis, and Green to Sengun, and the Rockets have a good, but unbalanced roster, but still plenty of flexibility to balance the roster. After the 2026 draft, the Rockets would be back to having a full complement of draft picks with three contracts (FVV, Green, and Brooks) in various combinations that can be used to match any significant contract in a trade. If the Rockets exercise FVV's team option, their roster flexibility will be compromised (have apron issues and FVV/Green on unfavorable contracts). It will take a sweetheart trade for the Rockets to exercise FVV's team option.
Game Theory is basically going to say the Rockets are set at the PG spot with FVV and Reed. Maybe they say FVV will sign at around $25M AAV. Overall, I fully expect them to think the Rockets re-sign FVV, try to manage the cap similarly to what Yossi said(avoid apron issues this offseason), and try to add a star. I expect different numbers by a little, names (they like JSJ more than Tari, Giannis more than Booker), but I doubt they deviate from the plan of managing financial flexibility well and being prepared for a trade if one pops up. Bryce may be more for giving the team one more year to see what they have. Overall, I expect them to be down on Green with him being the only blemish on the Rockets' cap sheet.
yeah I dont really disagree there but I feel they have a better understanding of the market value of players. For example fred being closer to 20m imo. I am more interested in seeing their valuation for tari and jabari extensions and what kind of trade offers they feel are fair for attaining durant or giannis.
This was a really good video. Yes, he is mostly showing the Booker trade as illustrative of how the cap/apron will impact the Rockets' team-building over the next few years. Don't get caught up on the specific trades or contracts he proposes. Focus on how everything works together. Highly recommend that everyone watch this video.
Bringing back Fred can be a good thing if we don’t overpay. But we need to be around Dillon money. Even $25 mil is too much. As far as I’m concerned he didn’t earn his money in yr 2 and I have legit concerns about his declining game as he ages. Can’t give him more than 3 yrs - $65 mil if we resign him. I’d feel okay at that price. But a complicating factor is that we really should not go into next season with the same backcourt. One of Fred or Jalen should probably go.
On "one of Fred or Jalen should probably go", it should be "Green needs to go or improve". Replacing FVV does not fix Green. If you replace FVV with Garland, Green needs to go. If you replace FVV with Jerome, Green needs to go. If you replace FVV with one of the Joneses, Green needs to go. If Reed takes the starting PG and FVV goes to the bench, Green needs to go. There aren't many PGs that play defense well enough to start Green. Suggs, one of them, makes $35M next year (better POA defender, but FVV's off ball is a lot better), but worse dribbler and shooter. Green's only chance to merit being a long-term starter is for Amen to improve his PG skills or for Green to become a much better player that defense doesn't matter. Personally, I think Amen takes Green's spot and FVV is just keeping the PG spot warm for Reed. I'll eat a lot of crow if Green improves and actually deserves to start, but I will want Green to start if that happens. I prefer Green to improve, as that fixes most of the Rockets' issues.
Just to be clear, I would not get rid of Green just to get rid of him. He's one the 3 best guards on the team currently. I don't like his contract, but would only move him in a move that benefits the Rockets. The decision to trade him should be based solely to get something, and not because he frustrates me or others. To me, a lot of the proposed FVV trades are based on frustration even though his contract situation makes it difficult (i.e., more costly in terms of draft capital) to trade him at value right now versus other contracts on the team. Even if you want FVV gone, it is likely better at the deadline unless some team just is willing to pay FVV $15M+ than they need to this season and any taxes in which that extra money adds.
Pretty good analysis. One thing you are missing is if there is a cause and effect of FVV as a bad fit with Jalen. It is possible that if you bring in another guard that shoots lights out and doesn’t eat up the shot clock consistently, that it opens up driving lanes for Jalen which is the real secret to unleashing his offensive worth. Or maybe you bring in a Pg (ahem, Amen) that can drive and dish better than FVV and Jalen gets more spot up opportunities where he is shooting near 40%. I don’t want to argue the same points with you about FVV, but I just think replacing Jalen and keeping FVV is not going to have the positive impact you are predicting.
