Sorry, bro, but this: You've created an imaginary scenario that would never actually happen. You know how many hitters had a bWAR at or equal to 5 last year (total WAR, counting offense and defense)? 18. How many of those play 2B? One, Ketel Marte. How many play OF? 4. Judge, Duran, Soto, Greene. You're not trading away Yordan and getting a star level current player, on a good contract, plus a bunch of prospects. You're just not. Stop. Duran was a one year wonder, Marte is in his 30s and has had one season at that level, and you're not getting Judge, Soto, or Greene (we couldn't afford the first two contracts anyway). If you wanted a 5 WAR player in the OF, we could sign Tucker, but we definitely won't, which is why we traded him. The hypothetical trade you suggest doesn't exist once you look for real world examples. Is not a paragraph. Re-read the MLA Handbook and try again?
I know they would, but this is an example of the type of player it would take for me to trade Yordan. I don't want a bunch of prospects for Yordan, I want a Star level player.
Understandable. It would be extreme difficult to match his trade value. Especially with his contract. I don't think we'll see any real discussions.
Roster wise, team is in kind of a tricky situation. If one were an optimist, you could look at the roster at years end and say we could have 8 above average to really good hitters. One could also look at various factors and say E sock and Yordan will be the only actual good hitters on the team in 3 months. Pitching wise it's a similar story, theoretically Framber/Brown/Arrighetti/LMJ with the possible return of Javier. That has absolute dominance potential. On the other hand, we could have a 2 man rotation supported by scrubs and injury concerns.
I expect a bunch of averageish hitters (some slightly below, some slightly above average), but mostly these guys will be average to above-average defensive players. I expect Diaz and Yordan to hit more like their xwOBA suggests. I expect Paredes to be good, but maybe some regression in hitting. I expect Dubon to be a below-average hitter, but still be close enough to average for his defense to keep him close to being an average starter. Walker and to a lesser extent Altuve are my worries this year of just being horrible going forward.
In between is about as honestly you can measure it. Can't predict health and that's our main problem with the rotation. We obviously need another bat in the OF and a 2nd baseman
Yordan would not be a good trade candidate as he would not net the Astros what he is truly worth. Perhaps late next season or in 2027, the Astros could contemplate moving him based on performance and assessment on the possibility of resigning him. The best trade assets currently on this team are Framber Valdez, Jake Meyers, Victor Caratini and just about anyone from the bullpen. As this team is hurting for a 4th and 5th starting pitcher, I don't see a Valdez trade happening unless the Astros fall out of the playoff race. Meyers is an interesting potential trade candidate as his performance and value have probably never been higher and you have potential replacements is McCormick and Melton. The real question is what could you get for Meyers? Caratini is providing another bat as the DH and backup catcher (the only lefty), but could be valuable to another team. Don't know if the return in a trade for Caratini would offset his current value to the team as currently comprised. The bullpen --- every year near the deadline teams overpay for bullpen arms. If the Astros fall out of the playoff race, I'm sure King, Ort, and other could net you a decent prospect in return. While I'm not looking for the Astros to blow it up, I am concerned that this team is just a .500 team --- and I really don't like the strategy of just getting to playoffs and hoping that we get hot.
I think Framber and Abreu make the most sense to trade if Houston wants to entertain sell-side deals. Those are the 2 guys with a combination of stable, high value and short remaining control. They also have pretty simple/affordable contracts that won’t over complicate their market. If Houston could trade those 2 players and net 2-3 Cam Smith level prospects plus 2-3 complimentary (Wesneski or Bello level) players/prospects, they’d remake their farm system. And if they backfilled them with cheaper/lesser options (something like Martin Perez and Kendall Graveman), the net cost would likely only be 2-3 wins in 2025. I don’t think trading those players makes much sense when you’re leading the division but you never know. I would be interested in assessing Hader’s value, but with his contract, where Houston is at in the standings, and how good he has been, it’s pretty hard to justify shopping him. Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Caratini, Okert, Ort, Dubin, Sousa, and King are guys that I don’t think have much trade value, but that would make sense to trade if there was another team out there that fell in love with them. None of those guys are elite, and the Astros have at least some measure of ready replacement for each of them. Rodgers has no trade value. Brown, Paredes, and Pena are too good and have too much control to consider trading this season. They are the current core of the roster. McCullers, Yordan, Altuve, and Walker all have big contracts and big question marks that put their value in a trough, so it doesn’t make sense to discuss them. Smith, Melton, Gusto, Gordon, Whitley, and Whitcomb are rookies who might be long term pieces, so they don’t make sense to trade unless it’s part of a major buy-side move; Smith doesn’t make much sense to trade under any condition.
Like the breakdown and really it all makes sense. But I don't see them selling unless things take a downturn by the deadline. And in that circumstance, I can see the logic in trading Hader. He's mid to bad in the even years and great in the odd years, so selling high would make some sense. I think he could bring good value with a number of contenders suffering volatility in the pen.
Other than a trade to sell because we are out of contention, I don't see any "buy" trades that would involve everyday starters (Meyers, Yordan, Caratini) because there are already too many deficiencies on the 26 man roster. "Buy" trades would have to further deplete the farm.
I don't see Crane agreeing with trading away Framber and/or Abreu in season. The time to trade them was the offseason when Brown could show Crane the projected depth chart and how those arms are replaced. Now, I could see Brown trying to convince him while the theme song to MASH plays in the background. Ain't happening.
If you consider last year to be what Estrada is then ok 2022 and 2023 he was WAY better than anything Dubon has ever done
I think it’s funny there is discussion about trading Yordan because both him and Altuve both have to be DHs And yet with Yordan out all this time Altuve rarely is the DH
Meyers should absolutely have his value explored if melton looks good between here and the all star break. I’d probably trade him tomorrow if I could het two prospects that would be top 10 in the Astros org.
Not looking backward, looking forward. Estrada projects for wRC+ between 81 and 96 with 1.1 fwar over 346 pa. Dubon’s projections are for wRC+ between 81 and 101 with 0.7 fwar over 196 pa. Dubon is projected as the better player over the rest of this season and beyond.
Just depends on who is doing the projections I suppose 29 and had one bad year. We shall see how it goes but I would take him over Dubon 10 times out of 10 if he is healthy and looks like last year was the off year
