Nice analysis. Let's also keep in mind that FVV took 7.7 three point attempts per game, second on the team to Jalen Green at 8.1. Shot volume matters, that's why we still consider Trae Young a well-above-average 3P shooter even though his 3P% doesn't reflect it. I generally don't mind bringing back FVV. He was arguably our best performer in the playoffs. I just want him to play fewer minutes and play off the ball more often. Get the MPG down around 28-30 and the usage around 14-15% and I'm happy.
These are FVV's three-point shooting as a Rocket. My view of FVV's skill matches the 82-Game Moving Average. My view of people that are negative towards FVV's three point shooting are making a mountain out of a small blip in this graph. Even in the 25-game moving average, The after the valley period isn't much different than before the valley.
I will say I am very critical of Jalen Green's shooting, but that has a lot to do with role. I don't see Jalen Green's defense being good enough to be an off ball player such that he needs the ball a lot and his scoring jut isn't good enough to be an on ball player(i.e., it is going to be hard to lower his shot difficulty). FVV on the other hand, excels with guys collapsing the defense and kicking out to him. The minutes doesn't bother me that much. If others take minutes from him, I'm fine with it. Granted,I don't freak out about having two productive veterans in the rotation (3 once Adams joined in). FVV's usage was below 16% for most of 2025 once Amen was a starter with an uptick to about 17% in the playoffs. I think his usage is in a good place.
Brooklyn has reportedly wanted two first-rounders for Johnson at the deadline. Would you pay that price? Something like Dillon or Whitmore + #10 + another future first-rounder for Cam Johnson (on a two-year deal)? Seems expensive. However, if you could convince Brooklyn to step down to one player (Whitmore or Brooks) and one future pick (not this year's #10), I'd take it, selling them on the idea that Whitmore and that future asset are what they asked for: two first-rounders.
I just feel like we need to prioritize upgrading the shooting in the backcourt. I like Cam Johnson, but Dillon was our best shooter on volume last yr, and I’m convinced Bari is going to shoot over 37% next season. It’s Jalen and Fred that are below league average. That’s where we should be focused IMO.
FVV is not below average even though he was ever so slightly below average for the season. He had a bad slump. He's been above average before and after his early-season slumps. Going forward, I would view FVV as an averagish shooter if he's heavy on ball, but will likely be above average if he continues to be on ball mostly to initiate a possession and then be the 40% catch and shoot threat that he is after that. The Rockets main shooting problem is Amen, Sengun, and Adams are all well below average shooters. Replacing FVV or even Jalen Green with dead eye shooters will help some, but generally that is going to cost a lot or cause issues elsewhere (i.e., trading defense for shooting).
There are multiple players in this draft worth trading up for that fit better as shooters. Tre Johnson, Kon, Coward are 3 great options that would fit as Jalen replacements. If you could trade 10 and Cam for say 5 or 6 that'd be a deal worth exploring IMO
sounds like u want to run back the same backcourt. That is where we are going to have to agree to disagree. I thought it was the weakest area of the team.
FVV is a mediocre 3 pt shooter, but that is not the problem. It is his inability to drive and create shots for others. He also is slow and methodical on a team that needs to play fast to take advantage of their superior athleticism (except FVV and Dillon) to almost every team. The other problem is that clearly Ime does not believe that we can win with a reduced FVV role. He is Ime’s crutch and he has slowed the development of most of our young guys. Amen needs to be the initiator to fill his potential which is astronomical. Reed needs to eat some of FVV’s minutes. Jabari gets ignored in Ime’s offense that FVV is in charge of for 40 minutes a game. The second seed was fool's gold. Rarely does 52 wins get you a second seed in the West and it won’t next year. You can’t win a championship running a putrid offense. As long as Ime has Fred to feed his all defense no turnovers fetish we are going to be an also ran. If we run it back by merely adding bench players we won’t be the second seed and we probably get dumped in the first round again. I asked this once before. Name all the starting PG’s in the league that are worse than FVV. I bet you can’t name 10 and if being honest 5.
If we're moving Jalen we need to get an instant replacement that upgrades his position, we're not at the stage where we need to be starting a rookie and giving them time to adjust. It's a nice idea but we don't need another prospect or maybe.
I'd say people keep lumping in PG with SG because I suspect they developed a narrative on FVV after he had a couple really bad streaks at the start of the season, and the won't change their opinion even though he's been over 38% for a larger sample at the end of the season and playoffs. I am a proponent of adding an offensive star, upgrading SG, and adding a high-volume 3-point shooting SF that has more on ball ability than Brooks. Though, the SG upgrade isn't likely to turn Amen, Sengun, and Adams into great shooters. If the Rockets do keep Sengun and Amen in (or add someone like Giannis), I am pro just moving Amen to the SG, getting a deadeye shooting SF and play Tair/Bari at the 4. On PG, I'd like to give Reed backup minutes while still giving Amen on ball reps to see if they can take the PG spot from FVV sometime over the next 2 years. This doesn't fix the spacing, but likely makes the Rockets even more annoying on defense. I fine with a star PG. I think most of the non-star PGs are not significant upgrades if an upgrade at all over FVV. Mostly, getting better shooting/scoring in exchange for a loss of defense.
I totally agree with you on the need for shooting and disagree on your solutions. Brooks is a 2 way player who shot 40% from 3. I don't think he's the problem with this team. And I love Amen but I think starting a non-shooter at shooting guard isn't a good idea. I think Giannis is the only star out there who really moves the needle. But he would require a retool of the roster. We'd need a center (Jabari?) and a two guard who are good shooters, at minimum, to go with him. Fred and Brooks still make sense on a Giannis centered roster, but I wouldn't pay Fred much more than a standard MLE type deal. Amen needs to work on his shot and/or handle to be a good starter with Giannis (I think he can do both).
I don’t know why they would do it but the Norman Powell trade floating around. Seems like a no-brainer
Pick one up in FA, you can probably get Ty Jerome for NT-MLE money (only because there isn't a lot of cap space). Dude damn near pulled off a 50/40/90 season .... shooting .516 / .439 / .872 for the season while averaging just shy of 3 and a half assists a game How significant is 50/40/90? Only 3 NBA players have ever done it. Larry Bird, Steve Nash & Kevin Durant. Only 11 have done it in NCAA D1 - Trey Murphy iii being the most recent. Another option is Luke Kennard who hasn't shot below .433 in the last 5 seasons. That gives you the ability to bring a draft pick along slowly or even redshirt the guy if necessary.
Add Curry, Brogdon, Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk, and Kyrie. Your 3 players are the only ones that have done it more than once.
For me, it isn't just about FVV's shooting from 3 - he also doesn't finish well, doesn't get into the paint and plays at a slower pace (not necessarily bad). The real issue is combining him with an inefficient / inconsistent player at the 2 spot like Jalen Green - and two more non-shooters in Sengun & Amen. I just can't wrap my head around "running it back" with those two as your starters. One or the other needs to go / be upgraded. Then there's the cap hit of Fred - It has to come down, significantly. There's no value for the Rockets at anything greater than ~$25m (other than as an expiring or matching salary). Take your pick, upgrade FVV or Jalen.
Is Ty Jerome really an upgrade over Jalen though? We knock Jalen for his production but Ty's got significantly more single digit games in the past season. Efficiency is great, but where's the proof he can do it at any kind of volume? He'd rank fairly low amongst our bunch production wise.
I agree that Fred will probably bounce back with the shooting. He’s got a really good track record. But his shooting was extremely disappointing last year and he really looks slow to me. He doesn't look spry. Really really needs to be able to move to overcome some of the other challenges, like his height. You mention Amen and others that need to get better and I agree, but that’s likely to happen. Amen is very likely to continue to improve the shooting. He’s only 22 and he’s a hard worker. Fred is 31 and can’t have shooting years like this past season. I worry there might be some decline with him. but I’d settle for upgrading either one of the guard spots. I can’t deal with going into next season without any change to the backcourt. I don’t think Fred and Jalen are a good fit. Interesting idea about moving Amen to the 2. I guess if you have good shooting at the 4,3 and 1 spots I could deal with it. But generally I don’t like non-shooting 2’s. If it moves Jalen into the 6th man role we have big questions about paying him $36 mil. I think either way there has to be changes to that backcourt.
Right. I can see arguments for either or, but bringing them both back shouldn't be in the cards. They're literally one of the worst backcourts in the NBA together.
I think I just want to make sure we don't trade for Trae Young. I can't believe this is a thing for some people.
