I would love it if Blubaugh and Ullola improved enough to lock down rotation spots this season. The former has an ERA north of 6 in AAA and the latter is at 4.5. The two guys who pitched Monday and Tuesday are the ones who were actually off to good starts. Both Blubaugh and Ulloa have a real problem with walks.
They both have swing and miss. That’s what I care about and translates to being good major league pitchers. The other guys don’t. You are talking about JP France or Bielak type ceilings imo.
Pitchers have control of three things during the game - strikeouts, walks, home runs. They’re not going to reach their potential until they control the walks. Same thing Arrighetti needs to work on. I hope they get there because, like you say, they’ve got potential. Right now I’d love to get a 3.8 era from our #4 and #5 starters, which is what Bielak and France put up in 2023.
Agreed. Theres just no ceiling without swing and miss, but yeah- you have to control walks too. Or be unhittable (Javier as a for example- when he had the lowest BA in the majors for a couple years). HR is somewhat controllable and somewhat not. You have a certain control over percentage of GB v FB, but you probably have little control over how many fly balls go over the fence v not. That’s mostly noise which is sort of the point of xFIP. To the extent you have control over fly ball to Harm at ratio it probably related to pull side fly ball v non pull side fly ball. Nothing more valuable in baseball than pull side fly balls (Bregman, Altuve and Paredes being able to be really good hitters with low exit velos) because they all hit lots of pull side fly balls which disproportionately go over the fence.
The swing and miss v controlling the walks is a real see saw. The more swing and miss the more you can fade higher walk rate bc there’s just less contact to hurt you. The more contact you allow the more you can’t have BB’s.
Formal announcement on Blanco this afternoon, looking ominous. That’s gonna be a big blow. They need Arrighetti to come back.
I'm not going to post everything I write- I promise. Those of you that like our podcast thanks for listening- I hope you will check out our blog (should have a post every day- with comment section on it) and enjoy, subscribe, share etc. One of my favorite people on here, @IdStrosfan will be writing from time to time. He wrote this one about how he's in Idaho and became a stros fan. Really good read imo- neat story.
My how times have changed. I used to hate any talk other than Astros related talk. Now that's mostly what's happening and I can't wait for Football Talk. But here I am. Waiting to see if the Defense will be as good as I think it can be. I'm thinking Doomsday and Doomsday II level. Can we manage an improved OL through scheme, coaching and spreading out the resources rather than a splashy name? Don't get me wrong, but I want to see the Astros do well, but they're not number one anymore. Perhaps it's just the accumulation of so many extended seasons, particularly with the extended playoff format. Perhaps I'm now a bandwagon fan after following the Astros from before they had ever had a winning season, following the Oilers beginning with the back to back 1-13 teams and the Rockets with their High School phenom Moses Malone.
Thanks for the kind words, Gabe. It's gonna be fun. Similar to here, but able to go into more detail.
